A New Regional Cold War in the Middle East and North Africa: Regional Security Complex Theory Revisited (original) (raw)
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Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver’s description of the regional security complex in the Middle East (ME) emphasized the role of the region's states as key actors shaping its structure. The last decade has brought important developments in the ME at the level of the state (civil war in Syria), region (exacerbating Shi'ia-Sunni conflict) and global system (interventions of world powers in Syria, potential American intervention in Iran). New tendencies also included the growing significance of sub-state and transnational actors (the emergence of the so-called Islamic State, build-up of the military potential of Hezbollah and Kurdish organizations). The paper consists of two parts. The first one presents a description of the MERSC’s structure (power relations and patterns of amity and enmity) transformations over the last 15 years. It is an attempt to verify the hypothesis that the processes and events in recent years have brought significant and relatively stable new features to the structure. The second part focuses on the involvement of non-state actors and outside great powers in the region. Firstly, their role in shaping the aforementioned transformations of the MERC’s structure is assessed. Secondly, Buzan and Wæver’s claim that MERC’s structure is determined mainly by the state actors from within the region is revisited.
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The best framework for understanding the regional politics of the Middle East is as a cold war in which Iran and Saudi Arabia play the leading roles. These two main actors are not confronting each other militarily; rather, their contest for influence plays out in the domestic political systems of the region’s weak states. It is a struggle over the direction of the Middle East’s domestic politics more than it is a purely military contest. The military and political strength of the parties to civil conflicts, and the contributions that outsiders can make to that strength, is more important than the military balance of power between Riyadh and Tehran.
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This article presents a theoretical framework for a collection of articles ("special issue"), which aims at discussing the role of non-Arab state actors and non-state actors in a changing Middle East. The articles in the collection offer perspectives that have been overlooked in recent research, namely those focusing on the role of non-Arab state actors and non-state actors in connection with the changing security environment in the region. Furthermore, these articles discuss how changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are appearing in different and shifting contexts in the creation of new local, sub-regional, or regional security subcomplexes in which Arab states, non-Arab states and non-state actors enter into new conflicts, alliances and other political relations with and against each other. The role of international actors interfering in the region is also analyzed in the context of the changing Middle East.
The broader Gulf Region and the Middle East have been witnessing a turbulent period since the closure of the first decade of the 21st century, one of uprisings and counter–uprisings, of civil wars and proxy wars as well as of deliberate destabilizing crises. Shifts in the distribution of power through the regional system off balance, sharpen distrust and dispersion between different units (states and non–state actors) and pitted rivals against each other. Thus, regional great powers in the Gulf region and the Middle East have invested enormous strategic interest to steer regional dynamics to their strategic direction. Such external behaviours have profoundly triggered a deep structural transition of the regional order / security complex. In particular, the region has been witnessing a polar rivalry between the Saudi Arabia lead conservative– moderate camp on the one hand and Iran lead conservative–resistance camp on the other hand. The alliance between Turkey and Qatar reveals a prospective strategic pole as well. Different regional units have involved in alluded regional polarization either by choice, pressure, or by coincidence! The editor welcomes contributions covering regional transition and power dynamics in the Gulf Region and the Middle East, alliance building, persistence and disintegration between different regional units since 2010. Case studies of regional great powers are welcome.
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Á e theory of regional security complexes developed by B. Buzan and O.Weaver describes the Middle Eastern regional security complex as astandard one, with apolarity determined by regional powers. It is also considered to be atypical con´ ict formation in terms of amity and enmity, where the politics of security is shaped mainly by interrelations between the regional powers1. At the same time, because of its global importance as aworld leading oil and gas supplier as well as its geostrategic location, Middle East constantly draws great attention from main international actors including all of the global and great powers. Á e security of the region is also characterized by much greater, than in most other regions, dy- namics and variability of the main issues of con´ ict. Á is is clearly seen when one looks at the main sources of instability in the region and reasons for con´ icts in the Middle Eastern states during last few de- cades. Since the end of the Second World War and during an era of decoloni- zation the Israeli-Arab con´ ict rose as acentral security issue. In the following years, it has to acertain degree absorbed and overshadowed all the other secu- rity issues. Since the decade of 1970. it became, however, less intense and impor- tant. Á e Israeli-Arab con´ ict has been substituted by the Israeli-Palestinian one, which has acompletely diÄ erent character and its actual position in the hierarchy of regional security issues is incomparably lower. Much greater importance shall now be paid to such problems and threats as the Islamic fundamentalism and extremism as well as agrowing activity of armed and terrorist groups that base those ideologies. Other central issues include sectarian and ethnic violence, in- stability of political regimes and weakness of state structures, internal economic and social problems in numerous countries, the regional arms race, or growing con´ icts for resources and raw materials.
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