Effects of Palm Oil Price on Exchange Rate: A Case Study of Malaysia and Indonesia (original) (raw)
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A cointegration analysis of crude palm oil price in Thailand
E3S Web of Conferences, 2018
Reliazing the pass-through effects of global commodity prices on domestic prices, this study develops a vector error correction model (VECM) to test for the determinants and direction of causality between global prices and crude palm oil (CPO) price in Thailand. Malaysian crude palm oil, world soybean oil and world crude oil prices were investigated as factors affecting the Thai CPO price. Using the Johansen cointegration test, the result unveils a presence of long-run relationship among the determinants. This long-run relationship, proposes that CPO price flows in Thailand are positively influenced by the Malaysian CPO price and the error correction term suggests that approximately 35 percent of total disequilibrium in Thai CPO price was corrected in the following month. Moreover, the findings show Granger causality from each of the Malaysian CPO price and the world soybean oil price for the Thai CPO price. Information flow regarding the price movements of the Malaysian CPO and soy...
The Impact of Crude Palm Oil Price on Rupiah’s Rate
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, 2014
Indonesia is a largest producer of Crude Palm Oil in the world, with increasing production and export from time to time. Since Indonesia now adopts a floating exchange rate regime, the export of such commodity may influence the real exchange rate, and this is the aim of this paper. By applying simultaneous equation model on data from 1984 to 2011, we conclude that the increase in CPO price will lead to an appreciation of Rupiah’s real exchange rate. As a major producer of CPO, the authority should be able to control the world price of crude palm oil to help controlling the stability of Rupiah’s rate. Keywords: CPO, simultaneous equation, real exchange rate.JEL Classification: E2
The nexus between Indonesia's exchange rate and the world crude palm oil price
International Entrepreneurship Review, 2019
Objective: International trade plays a major role in increasing the output of each country. Crude Palm Oil (CPO) is one of Indonesia's major export commodities. Facts show over the past two decades, CPO has become a fast-growing product. However, there are obstacles from one of Indonesia's CPO importers, namely the European Union. The aim of this study is to explore the nexus between the exchange rate and the world price of CPOs. Research Design & Methods: This study uses both the exchange rate of Indonesia and the price data of the world CPO from 1981-2017 as secondary. Granger Causality was used to explain the nexus between the exchange rate and the world price of CPOs. Findings: The results of the Granger Causality showed there was no causality between the exchange rate and the price of the world CPO. The lack of causality between the two variables suggests the trade balance's position is stronger and able to explain the exchange rate. Contribution & Value Added: This study indicated that the IDR exchange rate is more sensitive to trade balance rather than the world CPO price. Moreover, It is necessary to refined palm oil products to increase the contribution of the non-oil sector in Indonesia. In addition, the Indonesian government needs to be aware of the European Union's raised barriers to world trade. It means that Indonesia can make a positive campaign about the advantages of palm oil production. Article type: research paper
Malaysia’s palm oil exports: Does exchange rate overvaluation and undervaluation matter?
AFRICAN JOURNAL OF BUSINESS MANAGEMENT, 2011
This paper examines the impact of exchange rate risk on the exports of palm oil in the era of recurring financial crises and global economic instability. The exchange rate risk is captured by misalignments in the real bilateral US/RM exchange rate. This paper is divided into two parts. First, the incidence of exchange rate misalignment is observed using price-based approach (purchasing power parity) and model-based approach [behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER)]. Next, the estimated exchange rate misalignment is used as a variable in the export model to capture the impact of risks. The long run estimates suggest that exchange rate misalignments affect palm oil exports in a negative manner. Then, the estimated misalignments are segregated into events of overvaluation and undervaluation to further comprehend their individual impact. Results suggest that in the long run, overvaluation has a significant negative impact on palm oil exports. The opposite however, could not be construed in the case of undervaluation which indicates asymmetries in the impact of overvaluation and undervaluation of the exchange rate on palm oil exports. Hence, it is imperative that policy-makers avoid both overvaluation and undervaluation and keep the real exchange rate in line with the economic fundamentals.
2014
This study was focussed on investigating the effect of exchange rate volatility on the Indonesian Palm Oil export demand. Quarterly data of Indonesian pal oil export from 1995:1-2011:1 were used. Under error correction and cointegration modelling techniques, the study found that real exchange rate volatility has negative and significant effect on Indonesian non-oil and gas export, while real exchange rate does not. Another factor having significant effects is International Palm Oil price.
The Determinant of Local Palm Oil Price in Malaysia: Does the Covid-19 Pandemic Matter?
Advances in economics, business and management research, 2023
Biodiesel is an alternative fuel and is getting substantial attention globally due to its environmental benefits. Biodiesel is one of Malaysia's downstream movements of the palm oil industry. This industry is well known for its economic contribution to Malaysia's income growth. This study determines the effect of biodiesel price and the Covid-19 pandemic on Malaysia's local palm oil price using the monthly data which covered the period of January 2013 to June 2022. ARDL bound testing was adopted to test for cointegration. The dummy variable represents the lockdown period incorporated in the model. The findings indicate the existence of cointegration among variables. The real exchange rate and industrialization have a negative and significant impact on local palm oil prices, and crude oil and biodiesel prices positively affect Malaysia's local palm oil prices. Interestingly, the impact of biodiesel price on the local palm oil price is higher than the crude oil price. The dummy variable, which represents the Covid-19 pandemic effect, shows a significant positive effect on the local palm oil price in the short and long run. Policies promoting the sustainable development of the palm oil and biodiesel industry will contribute to Malaysia through increased output, employment, and GDP.
Challenges Of Exchange Rate Fluctuation And Cpo Prices In Indonesia Palm Oil Industry
2021
Objective : This study points to analyze the challenges of Rupiah Exchange Rates and International CPO Prices to Indonesia's CPO Export Volume. Design /methodology/approach : this research exercises explanatory type under a quantitative approach. Data collection techniques in this study were done by time series techniques. The data analysis technique used is Structural Equation Model (SEM) with the Smart Partial Least Square (PLS) tool. Findings : The study results indicate that: (1) Rupiah Exchange Rates do not have a significant effect on Indonesia's CPO Export Volume; (2) International CPO prices have a significant effect on Indonesia's CPO Export Volume. Practical implications : intensify business in economy sector in order to reach the lower class people. Paper type : research paper Keywords: Rupiah Exchange Rates, International CPO Prices, Export Volum
The Impact of Palm Oil Price on the Malaysian Stock Market Performance
Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies
The performance of a stock market has always become the center of attention for market analysts and investors. Due to its significant role in the economy of a country, the performance of the stock market is always associated with the economic condition of a country. Because of that, this study intends to examine the impact of commodity prices in influencing the behavior of the stock market index specifically by focusing on the palm oil prices. Since Malaysia is one of the major producers of palm oil, the behavior of the palm oil price is expected to have an influence on the Malaysian stock market index. In pursuing the objective, we have adopted the bounds test approach to analyze the existence of cointegration relationship among the underlying variables of the Malaysian stock market index, interest rate, exchange rate and the price of palm oil. Using monthly data for the period of 1997M12 to 2012M9, results of an ARDL test indicates that all the variables employed are significant i...
2018
Exchange rate is seen as an important economic variable that affects Malaysia’s palm oil export, which the policy maker may interfere in order to ensure that it maintains its position as one of the major palm oil exporters in the world. Nevertheless, the lead-lag relationship between exchange rate and palm oil export is unclear. Similarly, it is unclear whether there exists a long run asymmetric relationship between exchange rate and palm oil export. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the lead-lag relationship between exchange rate variability and palm oil export in Malaysia and whether the relationship between the two is linear symmetric or otherwise. This study employs ARDL, VECM and VDC techniques and further extends the previous research by adopting a recent technique which is Non-linear ARDL (NARDL) by using the data extracted over the period of 2008:1 to 2017:12 from Malaysian Palm Oil Council and DataStream. Based on this study, it is found that exchange rate is the ex...
Analysis of Oil Price and Exchange Rate in Indonesia
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
This research aims to find out the long-term and short-term effects of the oil price variable on the exchange rate, as well as the variables of foreign exchange reserves, relative money supply, relative GDP, and interest rates relative to the exchange rate in Indonesia. The analytical method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). This study's results indicate a significant negative effect between the variables of foreign exchange reserves, relative GDP, and relative interest rates on exchange rates in the long term and short term. There is an insignificant positive relationship between oil prices and the exchange rate in the long term and a significant positive relationship in the short term. There is an insignificant negative effect between the money supply relative to the exchange rate in the long term and a significant negative relationship in the short term.