A Strategic Analysis of the Kabul Peace Process II (original) (raw)
Related papers
The future of peace in Afghanistan is rooted in lessons from the past
The future of peace in Afghanistan is rooted in lessons from the past, 2019
In the complexity that has arisen from decades of conflict, with the multitude of actors aligning themselves on ethnic lines and the lack of national Afghan unity, reaching a consensus is proving to be nearly impossible. However, it seems that the future of Afghanistan will be played out by two main internal actors; the Taliban and the Afghan government led by Ashraf Ghani, an independent politician. And yet, there is little to no interaction between the Taliban and the government as the Taliban does not recognize the government as a legitimate entity, and the government does not appreciate the Taliban’s political momentum with other States. By engaging in talks with foreign governments and Afghan elites, the Taliban is gaining political credibility that is undermining Ghani’s government.
Asian journal of International Peace and Security (AJIPS, 2022
Unintended consequences in international relations may be tracked in three ways: Irrational policies that harm a state's interests owing to diplomatic brinkmanship. Second, tense relationships (spiraling out of control) have their own logic regardless of the best interests of those involved. Third, the outcome was unanticipated or against one's self-interests. By evacuating American and NATO troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban escalated their activities, resulting in Kabul's collapse. Obama fought Taliban fighters through military operations and drone strikes. The Afghan peace process, which failed and led to the withdrawal of American-led NATO troops under Biden, shows that this Afghan territory is a "graveyard of empires." This brinkmanship game has had little effect on the sole superpower and its allies, but Afghanistan and Pakistan may suffer from unanticipated consequences. This article concerns the Afghan peace process, Pakistan's role, and post-Taliban Afghanistan. Similarly, it examines the unintended consequences of the Afghan peace process's failure and Kabul's fall to the Taliban for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Using qualitative research interviews, this article explores Pakistan's various action options in Afghanistan.
The Afghan Peace Process: Domestic Fault Lines
Middle East Policy, 2021
The intra-Afghan dialogue stalled despite hectic diplomatic efforts by the United States, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Russia, and other countries to revitalize the dialogue and reach a political settlement before Western troops left Afghanistan. This article argues that there were three main reasons for disagreement between the Afghan government and the Taliban, and these issues remained a major stumbling block in the peace process and will prevent lasting peace. First, the Taliban were unwilling to reduce violence or declare a “permanent and comprehensive ceasefire,” as stated in the US-Taliban peace deal. Second, the Taliban would not accept Afghanistan’s democratic political system and insisted on establishing an “Islamic Emirate.” The group also showed its reluctance to respect women’s rights and advances made with respect to their social position. Third, the Taliban consistently refused to respect ethnic and religious tolerance of minorities, especially the Shia Hazara. The Hazara have declared that they will take up arms to protect themselves against the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul, which does not bode well for peace and stability in Afghanistan
Only an Afghan-led peace process can bring peace to Afghanistan
2021
By analysing the US-Taliban deal and the United States-Afghan joint declaration, this SADF Focus sheds light on the current and upcoming role of the Afghan government in the intra-Afghan dialogue. It is argued that the Afghan authorities need to lead the intra-Afghan dialogue and the overall peace process. If any deal is achieved that excludes them, they will lose their remaining legitimacy, resulting in a further enhancement of the urban-rural divide. This would also give regional power sharing arrangements with local stakeholders and militant groups further momentum. Moreover, the process of institution building and public services delivery by non-governmental agents, especially the Taliban in areas under their direct control, will continue. Considering the current political crisis in Kabul, the authors highlight the need for the US to maintain an oversight role in the country, particularly a 'hands-on approach' in the negotiation between the Taliban and the Afghan authorities.
Academia Letters, 2020
against the Taliban in Afghanistan and enabled them to start its troops' withdrawal from the country. This agreement is perceived as a starting point to end the conflict and the longest US military engagement. Nonetheless, political commentators, including ordinary Afghans, sees this as a political move by the Trump Administration and as a legitimacy factor for the Taliban. This leaves one questioning if the Doha peace deal with the Taliban would be sustainable? and if this is any different from what occurred in the early 90s and early 2000s? And the most important question of all, if this would bring peace and prosperity to the country? This paper takes an analytical approach to the issue of peace and conflict in Afghanistan, and by considering a timeline to the current conflict, it attempts to argue that this peace deal with the Taliban in a long run is not sustainable as it ignores some key variables that have defined the conflict over the past fifty years.
The Afghan Conundrum: Taliban’s Takeover and the Way Forward
Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs - USAF, 2021
Kabul Fell—the headlines of the week shocked many, for the greatest war machine in history failed to take note of the Taliban’s decisive onslaught, and yet again, another experiment of democratic engineering bit the dust in Kabul. Some call it “Saigon 2.0,” while others attribute the Taliban’s swift victory to the lack of resistance by Ashraf Ghani’s government. To some, the situation is a deliberate attempt by the United States to leave instability to China and Russia, while others call it the “biggest intelligence failure” in American history. Whatever the reasons, the Taliban has taken over Kabul, and the world must embrace and deal with an insurgent group holding power in the “Heart of Asia.” With the declaration of the establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, regional countries are debating their way forward to either recognizing the Taliban-led government or not. For the United States, the situation is rather challenging, as aside from the tough questions over the rationality of the “Forever War” and poorly managed withdrawal strategy by the Biden administration, Washington confronts a harder choice about the Taliban as well as how to manage the evacuation of American citizens and allies from Kabul.