Climate Chaos and What You Do Not Know! (original) (raw)
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CHAOS WITHIN THE CLIMATE VARIATION: THE PROCESS OF ENERGY BALANCE
IAEME PUBLICATION, 2020
In nature we observe many processes that of the low order show multiple equilibria, limit cycles and chaos. These processes can be geophysical models which suggest the variation in climate in different time scales. The climate models are very complicated in nature, irrespective of other chaotic models. The climate model is understood by the concepts of chaos. The variability in the natural climate is complex but there is the predictability involve in this. Any such prediction can contribute in larger scale to overcome from the problem and smooth effects are possible. The heat gain and the radiations and its physical phenomenon play the vital role. Oxygen isotopes ( 16O and 18O) ratio and hydrogen isotopes,(hydrogen and deuterium) give the nature of temperature in earlier time. When we consider longer time frame then we observe that there is similarity or coinciding nature of climate in different times. This process is self-similar process and in physical term this arises due to energy balance characteristics of the nature.
CLIMATE VARIABILITY: EXTERNALLY DRIVEN CHAOS
IAEME PUBLICATION, 2020
Self-sustained models related with generating three dimensional dynamical systems results to multi equilibria, periodic, quasiperiodic and chaotic trajectories, with no external forcing mechanism. The simpler models just show the results without the direct connections with the natural events. In nature there are number of systems that can be governed by the external forces. These forces itself relates with many other parameters and some time they are internal and some time it may be external. So there must be corresponding modification in the model. The existence of the forces may not be at a time but they vary with time factors. In atmospheric model the Coriolis force is added. This addition makes geostrophic balance at mid latitudes closer to the real characteristics. Hadley circulation suggests at bigger scale atmospheric circulation gives high rise of air at equator (Burroughs, W. J. (2001)). The circulation is at basic states ‘zonally asymmetric’. Strong transient disturbance converts into storms which produces randomness that disturbs the zonal patterns. The atmospheric nature has considerable external factors in the daily and yearly periodicity. In a chaotic system a very small periodicity may give rise of massive and remarkable effects. The external forcing factor must have sufficiently larger amplitude that drives the model to overcome from the potential barrier that barrier between the two equilibria. If the amplitude of the periodic forcing external factors that the driving force then the system will cross the barrier between different attractors. Human activities also add to the climate as an external factor and are different in different time scale. The oceanic thermoheline circulation is because of temperature and also the salt content in the water, adding them to model of an ocean will range to the Tropics to higher latitudes. Mainly it is found that the surface water is denser than the bottommost and there is the formation of convection current which will contribute to the effect on temperature, and hence in climate variation.
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Climate change is a current issue nowadays. Scientific debates about this theme are rather common and the population in general is aware of the problem. These two words "climate change" seem to be everywhere. But how well are humans aware? Vox populi says "weather isn't what it used to be"! People can feel the changes. But what changes? "Climate is recorded, weather experienced" (Ingold and Kurtilla 2000: 187), so people only have the perception of the meteorological events occurred during their lifetime and probably they can only remember some, the ones that left a bigger impression. Weather changes are felt in daily or yearly basis. But climate? It is such a big picture. For instance, the idea of changes in the past is something vague associated with a distant Ice Age,
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The Earth's climate is influenced by many factors, including solar radiation, wind, and ocean currents. Researchers try to integrate all of these influencing variables into their models. Many of the processes involved are now well understood. But interaction among the various factors is very complex and numerous questions remain unresolved. The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era-and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth's orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.