Paris Agreement, Precautionary Principle and Human Rights: Zero Emissions in Two Decades (original) (raw)

The Paris Agreement of December 2015 is subject to much criticism of being inadequate. This however neglects its very ambitious objective, which limits legally-binding global warming to 1.5 to 1.8 degrees in comparison to pre-industrial levels. This article shows, based on the overlap of unanswered questions for prognoses in natural science and the legal precautionary principle, that this objective indicates a legal imperative towards zero emissions globally within a short timeframe. Furthermore, it becomes apparent that policies need to be focused on achieving the 1.5-degree temperature limit. From a legal standpoint with regard to existential matters, only those policies are justified that are fit to contribute to reaching the temperature limit with high certainty, without overshoot, without leaving the 1.5 limit aside and without geoengineering measures, in contrast to the tendencies of the IPCC. This creates a big challenge even for the alleged forerunners of climate policies, Germany and the EU; because, according to the objective, the EU and Germany have to raise the level of ambition in their climate policies rapidly and drastically. 1. Research Issue and Methodology: Basics of the Paris Agreement and Its Legally-Binding Nature According to a broad scientific consensus [1–3], the Earth is facing global warming by 3 to 6 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels by the turn of the 21st Century. This is primarily caused by human-induced high greenhouse gas emissions, most of which, putting aspects of land use aside, are caused by intensive use of fossil fuels in sectors like transport, buildings, industry and electricity. The electricity sector, which is focused on almost exclusively in pioneering countries such as Germany [1,3], is just one of them. As estimated based on natural science and economics, this degree of climate change has the potential to cause massive economic damage, big migration movements, existential threats to millions of people and lastly violent disputes over diminishing resources such as food and water. So far, it is little acknowledged in political and public discourse that reducing greenhouse gas emissions [3,4] (especially, but not exclusively from fossil fuels) is also the central solution to ocean acidification as another upcoming environmental problem. Those emissions are therefore also cause for the frequently flagrant danger to marine ecosystems [5]. In December 2015, nations worldwide agreed to a new global climate agreement. Commonly, the Paris Agreement (PA) has been welcomed enthusiastically, especially after the success of the negotiations was doubtful. At the same time, there are questions on how effective it will be. Generally, all nations are required to take more ambitious measures to stop climate change (mitigation), to adapt to consequences of unavoidable climate change (adaptation) and to provide financial aid for countries harmed by climate