Arms Control in an Age of Strategic and Military Revolution (original) (raw)
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Routledge Handbook of the Future of Warfare, 2023
This handbook provides a comprehensive, problem-driven and dynamic overview of the future of warfare. The volatilities and uncertainties of the global security environment raise timely and important questions about the future of humanity's oldest occupation: war. This volume addresses these questions through a collection of cutting-edge contributions by leading scholars in the field. Its overall focus is prognostic rather than futuristic, highlighting discernible trends, key developments and themes without downplaying the lessons from the past. By making the past meet the present in order to envision the future, the handbook offers a diversified outlook on the future of warfare, which will be indispensable for researchers, students and military practitioners alike. The volume is divided into six thematic sections. Section I draws out general trends in the phenomenon of war and sketches the most significant developments, from the past to the present and into the future. Section II looks at the areas and domains which actively shape the future of warfare. Section III engages with the main theories and conceptions of warfare, capturing those attributes of contemporary conflicts which will most likely persist and determine the dynamics and directions of their transformations. The fourth section addresses differentiation and complexity in the domain of warfare, pointing to those factors which will exert a strong impact on the structure and properties of that domain. Section V focuses on technology as the principal trigger of changes and alterations in the essence of warfare. The final section draws on the general trends identified in Section I and sheds light on how those trends have manifested in specific local contexts. This section zooms in on particular geographies which are seen and anticipated as hotbeds where future warfare will most likely assume its shape and reveal its true colours. This book will be of great interest to students of strategic studies, defence studies, war and technology, and International Relations.
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Particular thanks are extended to Patrick Lin for his substantive input, meeting moderation, and synthesis. UNIDIR would also like to acknowledge the contributions of those experts and interviewees who have requested to remain unnamed. This report was drafted by Kerstin Vignard. About the Project "The Weaponization of Increasingly Autonomous Technologies" Given that governments have a responsibility to create or affirm sound policies about which uses of autonomy in weapon systems are legitimate-and that advances in relevant technologies are also creating pressure to do so-UNIDIR's work in this area is focused on what is important for States to consider when establishing policy relating to the weaponization of increasingly autonomous technologies. See http://bit.ly/UNIDIR\_Autonomy for Observation Papers, audio files from public events, and other materials. This is the seventh in a series of UNIDIR papers on the weaponization of increasingly autonomous technologies. UNIDIR has purposefully chosen to use the word "technologies" in order to encompass the broadest relevant categorization. In this paper, this categorization includes machines (inclusive of robots and weapons) and systems of machines (such as weapon systems), as well as the knowledge practices for designing, organizing and operating them. About UNIDIR The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research-an autonomous institute within the United Nations-conducts research on disarmament and security. UNIDIR is based in Geneva, Switzerland, the centre for bilateral and multilateral disarmament and non-proliferation negotiations, and home of the Conference on Disarmament. The Institute explores current issues pertaining to the variety of existing and future armaments, as well as global diplomacy and local tensions and conflicts. Working with researchers, diplomats, government officials, NGOs and other institutions since 1980, UNIDIR acts as a bridge between the research community and governments. UNIDIR's activities are funded by contributions from governments and foundations. Note The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of UNIDIR. They do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the United Nations or UNIDIR's sponsors.
10 trends for the future of warfare
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The end of the Cold War changed the international order and brought about new security challenges for the conventional arms control field. The field had been shaped by the ideologically driven political and strategic interests of the two superpowers of that time and the continuous rivalry between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. In the Post-Cold War era, arms control expanded into new geographical and political areas. In an era where peace was established within the western world, many conflicts, interstate and intrastate ones, started to emerge – or re-emerge - around the globe, and especially in the developing world, based on ethnic and religious divides. All these conflicts benefited from a deregulated arms market, where commercial forces, civilianization and the internationalization of manufacturing and related technology have made the nature of the conventional arms trade more vigorous than ever before. These factors created new security challenges and prospects for the agenda of conventional arms control field. In addition, the links between disarmament processes and the economic and human development agenda and the notion of the human security being threatened at a global level by the circulation and accumulation of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALWs) have revealed new tasks for conventional arms control. Therefore, the old-fashioned arms control agenda must be expanded to include issues like the effective control of arms exports and arms transfers at a global level and combating illicit arms trafficking and arms brokering, especially in the category of SALWs. However, the international community seems too immature, at the moment, to assume a consensual and comprehensive approach to conventional arms control, while all the relevant initiatives concerning the arms transfers regulation produce significant shortcomings and imperfections. Therefore, a holistic approach is necessary and will only be achieved in concert with a global consensus on an international, legally binding arms trade treaty, which will act as the cornerstone of a multifaceted and flexible mechanism for conventional arms control. This must address, in a coherent way, both pre-conflict and post-conflict situations and the different security cultures of the world’s regions and moreover, be linked to the sustainable economic and human development of the developing world.
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The collective security structure created by the U.N. Charter is becoming shakier than ever, and two recent trends pose particular challenges to Charter rules on the use of force. The first trend involves a normative shift in understandings of state sovereignty, and the second trend involves improvements in technology-specifically, the rapid evolution of unmanned aerial vehicles, precision weapons, and surveillance technologies. Each trend on its own raises difficult issues. Together, they further call into question international law's ability to meaningfully constrain the use of force by states.
Redefining military action through tech…
The key issue is to stop arbitrary decisions coming from biased interests and political leaders without vision of what means global peace. If there are counterbalance mechanisms that assure that all leaders are accountable at national and global level there are more chances to make a fair strategy. At national level, by the integration of special Committees in which actors from Congress, President and military sector are represented and at international level with the authorization from global institutions as United Nations –under a new innovative Security Council-. At first glance it seems utopian but when we see countries as Iran that are showing commitment to global agreements and capacity for Negotiation -as with the European Union- means that its possible and that soft power would stop the devastated impact of a “technological war”.