India 2017: Narendra Modi’s continuing hegemony and his challenge to China (original) (raw)
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The Road to Galwan Valley: An Alternative View of India’s Relations with China and the US since 2005
Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, RSC Policy Paper 2022/05 (Published in April 2022 by the European University Institute), 2022
This article analyses the reasons for the dramatic worsening of India-China relations which became apparent in the 2020 border crisis, particularly during the confrontation which took place in the Galwan Valley. The analysis focusses on the historical evolution of India-China bilateral relations since the beginning of this century. It has two main themes: (a) the unsolved border dispute between the two countries; and (b) the role played in India-China relations by India’s increasing strategic and military closeness with the US. The basic thesis of the article is that in 2005 the US consciously upgraded its connection with India to bring it in the arc of containment it was building around its Asian adversaries, including China. New Delhi’s new closeness with the US – a closeness which had a visible military dimension – could not but worry Beijing and cause a worsening of the India-China relationship. Up to the end of 2013, however, by implementing a complex set of policies, India’s policymakers kept this worsening under control, reducing it to a bare minimum. Things changed dramatically in 2014, when Narendra Modi, India’s new prime minister, abandoned India’s previous prudent approach to China, choosing to confront it and force it to accept India as an equal power. This brought about a downturn in relations between the two countries which, in spite of some countertendencies, eventually resulted in the 2020 border crisis.
India’s Great Power Politics, 2020
This book examines India's foreign and defence policy changes in response to China's growing economic and military power and increased footprint across the Indo-Pacific. It further explores India's role in the rivalry between China and the United States. The book looks at the strategic importance of the Indian Ocean Region in the Indo-Pacific geopolitical landscape and how India is managing China's rise by combining economic cooperation with a wide set of balancing strategies. The authors in this book critically analyse the various tools of Indian foreign policy, including defence posture, security alignments, and soft power diplomacy, among others, and discuss the future trajectory of India's foreign policy and the factors which will determine the balance of power in the region and the potential risks involved. The book provides detailed insights into the multifaceted and complex relationship between India and China and will be of great interest to researchers and students of international relations, Asian studies, political science, and economics. It will also be useful for policymakers, journalists, and think tanks interested in the India-China relationship.
INDIA 2015: THE UNCERTAIN RECORD OF THE MODI GOVERNMENT
Narendra Modi’s 2014 election generated enormous expectations in the economic sphere. However, in 2015, on the one hand, Modi was unwilling or unable to push through any «big bang» reforms; on the other hand, jobs generation – one of Modi’s key electoral promises – proceeded at an excruciatingly slow pace. At the macroeconomic level, the Indian GDP grew by 7.3% during 2014/15, making India the fastest growing among the major economies. However, these data were the result of a new methodology, and most economists, including some politically close to the Modi government, were uncertain about its reliability. Moreover, when applied to the previous years, the new methodology unequivocally showed that the positive turn-around in the economy had happened before Modi’s government came to power. The Indian economy was also severely affected by a deepening rural crisis. Some of its causes were beyond the reach of Modi’s government, but it is a fact that its response was disappointingly inadequate. Domestic politics was a constant source of difficulty for Modi. First, state elections in Delhi and Bihar dispelled the myth of the invincibility of the Modi – and Amit Shah – led BJP, which was soundly defeated by local outfits. Second, the government struggled to pass key legislation in Parliament, also thanks to the unexpectedly successful opposition of the Congress party. Finally, the most worrying development on the domestic front was the rise of intolerance against non Hindus, who were victims of Fascist-like, sometimes deadly, aggressions by Hindu outfits. This happened while the Prime Minister appeared basically unconcerned about the climate of growing violence and some members of his government went so far to openly justify this state of affairs. The aim of Modi’s foreign policy was projecting India as a major power on the world stage and getting all the possible foreign help in promoting India’s economic development. To this end, India’s foreign policy was articulated along two main axis: the India-US connection and the India-China connection. In turn, the latter had two faces: engaging China and containing China. At the end of the day, the India-US connection was high on hype but low on content, among other reasons because the US business community, after its initial enthusiasm for Modi, had come to perceive him as well intentioned but unable to further liberalise the Indian economy. India’s economic engagement with China brought about the signing of several MoUs and China’s promise to invest in India. However the concrete fall-out of all this was limited. More concrete appeared the containment aspect of Modi’s China policy, which, at a more general level was expression of India’s strategic surge, aimed at reclaiming the position of great power.
For more than one and half decades, India's foreign policy was largely designed, decided and determined by the Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. He was also the foreign Minister of India along with the position of Prime Minister. India's position during the Cold war period was mainly determined by Jawaharlal Nehru. However with his demise, there was hardly any leader with his stature who could convince the political leaders and Indian people about the future of India. India's journey from 1947 till the present day, both in the terms of foreign policy and domestic politics, can be seen as a transition from idealism under Nehru, through a period of hard realism lasting roughly from the mid-1960s to mid-1980s to economically driven pragmatism today. Hence, Indian Foreign policies were determined by numerous non-state actors and other elements which gained momentum during the course of time. The internal security scenario in the country can be broadly seen in terms of various specific theatres which have been witnessing a mixed hue of separatist, ethnic and other forms of violence, subversive /terrorist/extremist activity in Jammu & Kashmir and some insurgency affected North Eastern States, particularly Assam, Manipur and Nagaland; naxalite violence in some areas of certain states, particularly in Andhara Pradesh, Bihar, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and Orissa; periodic incidents of terrorist attacks and bomb blasts etc.,in various parts of the hinterland; communal tensions and violence; and, sporadic incidents and episodes which had affected public order through large scale agitations, street violence etc. However, with the passage of time, the number of non-state actors had grown considerably outside the office of Prime Minister of India.
India 2019: Assaulting the world’s largest democracy; building a kingdom of cruelty and fear
Asia Maior, 2019
The seven months starting with the formation of the second Modi’s government in May 2019 and the end of the year were characterised by the systematic and massive assault on democracy launched by the incumbent government. The highpoints of this assault were basically two. The first was the hollowing out of two key articles of the Constitution, which had guaranteed the autonomy of Jammu & Kashmir, the only Union state with a Muslim majority, followed by its dismantling as a state and its transformation into an internal colony brutally ruled through military force. The second highpoint was the attempt to modify the concept of Indian citizenship by introducing a religious criterion aimed at excluding persons of Muslim religion. Both moves appeared to be in contrast with the Indian Constitution; however, the Supreme Court studiously avoided contrasting the Modi government’s policies. The most important Supreme Court’s sentence in the period under review, far from being related to the possibly unconstitutional activities of the government, dealt with Ayodhya question and de facto justified the destruction of the Babri Masjid by Hindu extremists in 1992. Eventually a reaction to the country’s slide towards authoritarianism set in at the beginning of December, when a mass movement against the modification of the secular concept of citizenship spread in large parts of India and was harshly repressed in the Union states governed by Modi’s party, the BJP. Modi and his closest aides, while focussing their efforts on the assault on democracy, seemed to be disinterested in the disappointing economic situation, possibly as a consequence of their inability, during the previous term, to manage it properly. Hence, the real dimensions of the slowdown, resulting from the first Modi government’s mismanagement of the economy became increasingly evident. As evident became the inability of the new finance minister to redress the situation. Ominously, by the end of the period the GDP appeared to be sliding back to the infamous «Hindu rate of growth», namely the slow growth characterising the years from 1950 to 1980.
India on the eve of 2014 general elections
This paper addresses the Indian political situation on the eve of 2014 general elections. It examines the current political balance, taking into consideration the Congress's decline, the inexorable ascent of the BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, and the unexpected emergence of a new political force, represented by the Aam Admi Party. The article analyzes the causes and the potential evolution of the aforementioned developments. In the end, the Indian foreign policy evolution is investigated through analyzing continuities and changes occurred in the last two decades, in order to understand if a political shift at national level would affect India's strategy.