Response by Monash University Accident Research Centre (original) (raw)
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Generalised linear models of road trauma outcomes have been found to be a powerful way of representing the trends and variations over time and to explain the effects of influential factors such as countermeasure initiatives. This report covers their application to monthly casualty crash frequencies and injury severity outcomes in Victoria during 1998. During 2000, the mobile speed camera program in Victoria was changed by introducing "flashless" camera operations during daytime and other modifications to make the enforcement more covert and unpredictable, increasing the targeted camera operating hours from 4200 to 6000 hours per month, and reducing the speeding offence detection threshold in three stages. In December 2002, the thresholds for penalties applying to different levels of speeding offence were generally reduced by 5 km/h. Associated with the speed enforcement initiatives was a program of speed-related advertising known as the "Wipe Off 5" campaign launched in early August 2001 without specific reference to the enforcement changes. A subsequent announcement took place in late November 2001 specifically mentioning the more covert speed camera operations as well as the increase in camera hours. A third announcement took place in the print media at the end of March 2002, emphasising that the former 9 km/h speeding tolerance no longer applied. As well as the enforcement changes, the statistical models included the reduced urban speed limit in January 2001, the penalty restructure, the speed-related advertising and the announcements, plus the impact of the fixed speed camera controversy that arose in late 2003.
Evaluation of Transport Accident Commission Road Safety Television Advertising
1993
Type of Report & Period Covered GENERAL, 1993 Transport Accident Commission 222 Exhibition Street Melbourne VIC 3000 The Transport Accident Commission (TAC) has made a major investment in road safety advertising on television in Victoria since 1989. This high profile and intense advertising has captured the Victorian public's attention as representing a substantial commitment by the TAC to improving road safety in Victoria. Monash University Accident Research Centre (MUARC) has conducted an evaluation of the road safety benefits of TAC's television advertising campaigns. Part 1 of this report describes the TAC campaigns and summarises an attempt to estimate the role of the publicity campaigns in Victoria's road safety performance. Part 2 builds on recent MUARC evaluations of two major road safety programs which combined TAC advertising campaigns with increased enforcement efforts by the Victoria Police. An economic analysis of the effects on crashes of the TAC advertising supporting enforcement is described. Part 3 describes an attempt to evaluate the Concentrate or Kill campaign, which differs from the speed and drink-driving advertising campaigns in that it was not designed to support enforcement. The overall fmdings from this multi-faceted and relatively complex evaluation study are synthesised in Part 4. The research indicates clear links between levels of TAC publicity supporting the speed and alcohol enforcement programs and reductions in casualty crashes when other major factors are held constant. For levels of advertising at the point of diminishing returns, the estimated benefits in terms of reduced TAC payments were respectively 3.9 and 7.9 times the costs of advertising supporting the speed and alcohol enforcement programs. The road safety effects of TAC publicity with themes not related to enforcement (ie. concentration) is less clear. The Concentrate or Kill advertisements appear to raise awareness of the issue, but there is no conclusive evidence at this stage that they have reduced the crash involvement of the specific target group of the advertisements, namely young drivers on country roads.
2007
Generalised linear models of road trauma outcomes have been found to be a powerful way of representing the trends and variations over time and to explain the effects of influential factors such as countermeasure initiatives. This report covers their application to monthly casualty crash frequencies and injury severity outcomes in Victoria during 1998 to 2003. During 2000 to 2002, the mobile speed camera program in Victoria was changed by introducing "flashless" camera operations during daytime and other modifications to make the enforcement more covert and unpredictable, increasing the targeted camera operating hours from 4200 to 6000 hours per month, and reducing the speeding offence detection threshold in three stages. In December 2002, the thresholds for penalties applying to different levels of speeding offence were generally reduced by 5 km/h. Associated with the speed enforcement initiatives was a program of speed-related advertising known as the "Wipe Off 5" campaign launched in early August 2001 without specific reference to the enforcement changes. A subsequent announcement took place in late November 2001 specifically mentioning the more covert speed camera operations as well as the increase in camera hours. A third announcement took place in the print media at the end of March 2002, emphasising that the former 9 km/h speeding tolerance no longer applied. As well as the enforcement changes, the statistical models included the reduced urban speed limit in January 2001, the penalty restructure, the speed-related advertising and the announcements, plus the impact of the fixed speed camera controversy that arose in late 2003. The study concluded that generalised linear modelling of crash outcomes as a function of potential explanatory factors needs realistic assumptions to be made about viable functional forms connecting a measure of each factor and the outcomes. The assumed functional form of the relationship between monthly speed camera hours and road trauma appears to represent this relationship well. There is doubt that the flashless speed camera initiative and the enforcement threshold reductions have been adequately represented in the monthly crash outcome models. It was concluded that the effect of these initiatives on crash outcomes is unknown at this stage. The assumed functional form of the relationship between monthly speed-related advertising levels and road trauma appears to represent this relationship well. The speed-related television advertising had a statistically significant association with a decrease in monthly casualty crash frequencies during times of increased advertising levels. In general the relationships connecting speed camera hours and levels of speed-related advertising with road trauma reductions in Victoria confirmed previous research on the effectiveness of these road safety programs as operated in the State.
2004
The present report consists of four studies: 1) Effects of campaigns on road traffic accidents, 2) Effects of campaigns on other areas of behaviour than road traffic, 3) Evaluation of campaigns of the Swedish Road Administration 4) Swedish campaigns: Appraisal of cost effectiveness and benefit-cost aspects 1) Effects of campaigns on road traffic accidents, Study 1 considers estimation of effects of campaigns on road traffic accidents. The basis for estimating the effects has been the construction of a database, which comprises 86 results from a total of 30 evaluation studies. Of these, 72 results are used for estimating the effects of campaigns during the campaign period and 14 results are used for estimating the effect in the after-period. Two types of analysis are presented. The first is from meta-analysis and concerns the general, overall effect of campaigns. The second comprises results from metaregression and concerns factors that contribute to explaining effects of campaigns. The data are tested for publication bias, i.e. the tendency not to publish results from campaigns where the effect seems to have been zero or gone in the opposite direction of what would have been expected. Considering all results in the database there seem to be a certain publication bias and a "trim-and-fill"procedure indicates that 13 "campaigns" should be added to the data in order to compensate for publication bias. Considering the studies that evaluate effects in the campaign period the number of campaigns against drink driving is 33. A trim-and-fill procedure indicates publication bias for this subset of campaigns and 6 "campaigns" should be added for compensating this bias. The number of campaigns against speeding is 18 and a trim-and-fill procedure indicates publication bias also for this subset of campaigns and 4 "campaigns" should be added for compensating this publication bias. For other single-theme campaigns one result is added after trim-and-fill and for multitheme campaigns the number of added results is 4. There is no publication bias among the studies that are used to estimate effects in the after-periods. Effects of information campaigns on behaviour and road accidents-conditions, evaluation and cost-effectiveness
Evaluation of the Queensland road safety initiatives package
AUSTRALASIAN ROAD …, 2008
The RSIP aimed to target the road toll through increased hours of speed camera operation, increased hours of on-road Police enforcement to target the "Fatal Four" behaviours (drink driving, speeding, fatigue, and non-seat belt wearing), increased mass-media publicity to target the "Fatal Four" and increased hours of Police educative activities. This study has evaluated the effectiveness of the Road Safety Initiatives Package implemented in Queensland over the period December 2002 to January 2004. The evaluation has examined the crash effects of the program and their associated economic worth for both the program as a whole as well as for specific program elements. It has also assessed changes in speeding behaviour and general attitudes through analysis of speed monitoring data and attitudinal surveys respectively.
Travelling Speed and the Risk of Crash Involvement: The South Australian Experience
2001
The relationship between free travelling speed and the risk of involvement in a casualty crash was explored using a case control study design in two studies conducted in South Australia by the Road Accident Research Unit: one in 60 km/h speed limit zones in metropolitan Adelaide; and one in 80 km/h or greater speed limit zones in rural South Australia. Exponential increases in crash risk associated with high free travelling speeds were found in both studies and no evidence was found for an increase in risk at low free travelling speeds. Hypothetical calculations on the effect of lowering free travelling speeds in both these studies indicated that significant reductions in casualty crashes could be expected from even small reductions in free travelling speeds. The results of an alcohol case control study conducted by the Road Accident Research Unit in metropolitan Adelaide were compared to the free travelling speed studies and it was found that driving with a blood alcohol concentrat...
Alcoholism, clinical and experimental research, 2015
The associations between population-level alcohol consumption and fatal injuries have been examined in a number of previous studies, but few have considered the external impacts of major policy interventions. This study aims to quantify the associations between per capita alcohol consumption and traffic and nontraffic injury mortality rates in Australia before and after major traffic safety initiatives (the introduction of compulsory seat belt legislation [CSBL] and random breath testing [RBT] in 1970s). Using data from 1924 to 2006, gender- and age-specific traffic and nontraffic mortality rates (15 years and above) were analyzed in relation to per capita alcohol consumption using time series analysis. The external effects of policy interventions were measured by inserting a dummy variable in the time series models. Statistically significant associations between per capita alcohol consumption and both types of fatal injuries were found for both males and females. The results sugges...
Death and Injury from Motor Vehicle CrashesA Tale of Two Countries
American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2005
To determine why road deaths dropped by 33.9% in the United Kingdom, compared to 6.5% in the United States, between 1990 and 1999. Methods: Deaths per billion vehicle kilometers traveled (D/BVKM), and case fatality rates (CFR) in the United States and the United Kingdom were tracked. Time trends in CFR can be used to track the direct effects of speed of impact. CFR is a crash-phase outcome that is independent of exposure, and varies approximately to the fourth power of the speed of crash impact. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze changes in time trends of CFR. Results: In the 1990s, the decrease in deaths in the United Kingdom was attributable mostly to the 29.6% drop in the CFR. In the United States, the CFR dropped by only 6.6%. The United Kingdom introduced speed cameras and an array of speed-calming measures. By contrast, in the United States, use of speed cameras was extremely rare, and speed limits and speeds increased in 32 of the 50 states, mostly in 1995 and 1996, after which CFR actually rose (p Ͻ.0001). Intercountry differences in time trends in seat belt use, trauma care, vehicle kilometers traveled, congestion, and driving under the influence of alcohol (DUI), along with massive increase in use of higher-risk sports utility vehicles in the United States, did not account for the contrasting trends in deaths through the 1990s. But increases in DUI in the United States after 1997 may have contributed to increases in speed-related crashes. Conclusions: The reductions in CFR, probably from small drops in speed of impact account for the disproportionately greater drop in death tolls in the United Kingdom compared to the United States. The temporal fit between drops in CFR and deaths following the introduction of speed cameras in the United Kingdom and increases in speed (speed creep), CFR, and deaths in the United States following raised speed limits suggests that diverging changes in speeds of impact accounted mainly for these changes. Use of D/BVKM to correct for exposure concealed the lack of progress after 1990 in the United States, since falling time trends in D/BVKM reflect increases in congestion. If the United States had implemented United Kingdom-type speed control policies and not raised speed limits, there would have been an estimated 6500 to 10,000 (ϳ16% to 25%) fewer road deaths per year during the period following speed-limit increases (1996 to 1999), including many DUI-related deaths. Reductions of up to 50% are now achievable based on newer population-wide strategies for speed control.
Overall impact of speed-related initiatives and factors on crash outcomes
Annual proceedings / Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine. Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine, 2007
From December 2000 until July 2002 a package of speed-related initiatives and factors took place in Victoria, Australia. The broad aim of this study was to evaluate the overall impact of the package on crash outcomes. Monthly crash counts and injury severity proportions were assessed using Poisson and logistic regression models respectively. The model measured the overall effect of the package after adjusting as far as possible for non-speed road safety initiatives and socio-economic factors. The speed-related package was associated with statistically significant estimated reductions in casualty crashes and suggested reductions in injury severity with trends towards increased reductions over time. From December 2000 until July 2002, three new speed enforcement initiatives were implemented in Victoria, Australia. These initiatives were introduced in stages and involved the following key components: More covert operations of mobile speed cameras, including flash-less operations; 50% i...