Chapter 8 Travel Demand Forecasting & Modeling (original) (raw)

The Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling process for the Jackson MPO was developed in cooperation between the Region 2 Planning Commission (R2PC) and the Urban Travel Analysis unit within the MDOT. MDOT was the lead role in the development, calibration, validation, and application of the Travel Demand Forecast Model (TDFM or " model "). The Jackson MPO acted as the liaison among members of the public, local agencies, and the JACTS Technical Committee, the JACTS Policy Committee, and the Region 2 Planning Commission. R2PC and MDOT collaborated on the development schedule of the model, as well as dissemination and distribution of model input and output data for review, comment, and subsequent approval. Travel Demand Forecasting Models are used to identify and evaluate the capacity demands of a region's federal-aid road network. Identification of roadway capacity deficiencies and analysis of the system as a whole, for the current year through and up to the Horizon Year of the plan, is vital in the development of the plan. A thorough review of the capacity demands of the roadway system is conducted at the regional level and then evaluated with the goals associated with the plan, along with anticipated financial outlooks. The assessments, priorities, and overall strategies included in the plan are used to guide decision-makers in developing the Transportation Improvement Plan (TIP), which is used to program current and upcoming transportation projects, as well as to identify investments of the projects on the federal-aid road network within the MPO. As economic conditions, transportation system trends, financial outlooks, and land use environments change, it is important that the plan be updated to reflect and account for these changes. The plan, following federal laws and regulations, is reevaluated and/or updated every five years to reassess the travel demands on the federal-aid transportation system. Along with the plan update, the TDFM is also redeveloped or updated to include the changes associated with the new plan. Socioeconomic trends and forecasts are also reexamined, which alters travel behavior and demand on the federal-aid road network, and may potentially change strategies of the Jackson MPO. The TDFM is a valuable tool used to identify and analyze the capacity demand of the Jackson MPO transportation system. Model results are useful in aiding the decision-making process. The modeling process and resultant outputs are provided at a regional level and are not necessarily applicable to small areas. The identification and analysis of corridor capacity deficiencies and associated travel projections are intended to serve as the basis for forming decisions regarding system improvement, expansion, or for other roadway capacity changes.