Differences between current and future drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon (original) (raw)

Forests play a crucial role in providing a range of ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change. This shows the global but also more regional importance of forests, particularly in places like the Amazon with large remaining areas of forests. Yet, the prevailing paradigm continues to be one of growth and development, which puts a continuous threat on our long-term well-being. Based on the notion that the dynamics and causes of deforestation are multi-faceted, complex and vary geographically as well as in time, this study focused on understanding the current and future deforestation dynamics on the Amazon region using participatory methods. First a stakeholder analysis was performed, identifying those individuals affected by climate change and Land Use/ Land Cover Change (LULC) in the Brazilian Amazon Basin. Secondly, a semi-structured interview was prepared, exploring a range of issues on the present and future situation of the Amazon in terms of drivers, future scenarios, and policies. Finally, the questions were divided into groups to facilitate analysis. A total of 18 interviews were conducted with experts covering most of the Brazilian Legal Amazon. Results indicate that, despite regional variation and specificities, livestock farming, logging activities and mechanized agriculture were perceived as the 3 main direct causes of deforestation. When asked for the main drivers in 2050, a distinctly different set was mentioned including large infrastructure programs planned for the region, followed by mining, oil and gas activities. When comparing the main current causes of deforestation with those mentioned to be important in 2050, it is clear that stakeholders are convinced that issues related to livestock farming, mechanized agriculture and logging activities will have been overcome, while big infrastructure problems related to energy supply will become the main driver of deforestation.