'If a fight starts, watch the crowd' The effect of violence on popular support for social movements (original) (raw)
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Acta Politica, 2019
Traditional theories of collective action would predict that, after a triggering event, the trajectory of a wave of protest is determined by the institution-alisation–radicalisation tandem. Based on the Spanish cycle of anti-austerity and against the political status quo protest in the shadow of the Great Recession, this article contends with this approach, as a clear trend towards radicalisation is never observed as the cycle unfolds. An alternative interpretative framework is developed to understand protest trajectories when collaborative inter-organisational strategies prevail. The eventful 15M campaign triggered in 2011 represents the most remarkable turning point in the Spanish socio-political mobilisation scene in recent years and had a transformative capacity over subsequent protest endeavours. Specifically, after the 15M campaign, the combination of downward scale shift and coalition building shaped the trajectory of mobilisation, and allowed for the peak of protest to persist until late 2013, when institutionalisation took over. Data from an original Protest Event Analysis dataset are used to illustrate the main arguments.
Revista Internacional de Sociología, 2019
This article seeks to understand the trajectory of radicalization in the Catalan 'procés'. Regardless of their formal legal standing, referendum campaigns are distinct political opportunities which also generate further opportunities. Contrary to what some theories of protest would predict, when political opportunities are closed down at national level, and repression toughens, violent escalation leading to fragmentation and ultimately demobilization does not necessarily ensue, at least in the short term. As the Catalan 'procés' illustrates between the mid-2000s and late-2018, the combination of mechanisms such as appropriation of opportunities, downward scale shift and movement convergence can mitigate escalation processes. A dense network of local and grassroots assemblies displaced the previously dominant, major civil society organizations that led mass protests, especially during the 2012-2015 'diadas'. These grassroots actors prioritized the organization of dissent through more direct, more disruptive, but mostly peaceful forms of action. This in turn facilitated movement convergence, based upon solidarization, as it opened up local spaces where the activists from across the spectrum could mobilize together, preempting a clear violent escalation and the emergence of violent splinter groups till late 2018.
Terrorist Violence and Popular Mobilization: The Case of the Spanish Transition to Democracy
The hypothesis that terrorism often emerges when mass collective action declines and radicals take up arms to compensate for the weakness of a mass movement has been around for some time; however, it has never been tested systematically. In this article the authors investigate the relationship between terrorist violence and mass protest in the context of the Spanish transition to democracy. This period is known for its pacts and negotiations between political elites, but in fact, it was accompanied by high levels of terrorist violence and popular mobilization. To test the hypothesis, the authors have created two data sets, one on victims of terrorism and another on participation in demonstrations. The data clearly confirm that terrorism erupted in Spain when participation in demonstrations started to decline. This result sheds new light on the nonstructural conditions associated with the onset of terrorist violence.
Debats, 2022
This article aimed to determine how the structure of political opportunities in Spain has changed in connection to the cycles of protest associated with the 15-M anti-austerity movement and Catalan independence process between 2011 and 2017. To do this, we compared both episodes of conflict based on an analytical model developed through theories of the political process. In addition, we used evidence from the analysis of statistical records, barometers of public opinion, newspapers, and research carried out by other authors. This article discusses the similarities and differences between both episodes in relation to the different variables making up the structure of political opportunities. We end by identifying the impacts of both episodes on these structures as well as the state responses when trying to manage the challenges launched by them. Finally, the institutionalisation dynamics followed by both movements were compared and we also examined their conclusions in two different outputs: transformation of the party system in the case of the Spanish 15-M movement and repression and imprisonment of the pro-independence leaders in the Catalan one. To conclude, it is made clear that the chances of social co-mobilisation success increase when political opportunities are broadened, when the existence of allies is proven, and when the opponents' weakness are made evident. However, we also expound how, when faced with intensified protests, government forces and the state apparatus may respond with reform or repression, or with a complex combination of both.
Violence or Nonviolence: The Impact of Public Opinion on Campaign Onset and Tactics
Peace and Conflict Studies, 2024
Recent scholarship suggests that norms of nonviolent contestation strongly constrain the course of civil resistance campaigns. However, these norms are not uniform across countries. It may be the case that violent campaign groups may successfully mobilize supporters in societies where norms of nonviolent contestation are not established. This study seeks to answer whether campaign onset and tactics are influenced by public opinion, and if so, specifically what components of public opinion do so. We disaggregate public opinion into those on campaign tactics and campaign goals, and argue that public opinion on campaign goals affects the initiation of civil campaigns, while that on campaign tactics affects the peacefulness of a campaign. Using the AmericasBarometer and Afrobarometer, we demonstrate that high satisfaction with democracy, a proxy for public opinion on campaign goals, significantly reduces the likelihood of violent and nonviolent campaigns compared to no campaigns and that the public's high violence aversion makes violent campaigns less likely compared to nonviolent campaigns.
"This article analyzes the “13-M” flash mob protests following the 11-M terrorist bombings in Madrid and immediately preceding the March 14 Spanish General Elections of 2004. The Governing Popular Party’s insistence that ETA were the main suspects despite contradictory evidence led to a widespread perception that they were deliberately misleading the public for electoral purposes. This sparked the indignation and mobilization of thousands of citizens on March 13, 2004, in an illegal unprecedented “flash mob” protest. Contrary to the two main explanations in the literature, I argue that the 13-M protests were neither purely spontaneous manifestations of public opinion, nor were they the result of Socialist Party machinations. Autonomous social movement activists used cell phones and the internet to mobilize previously established networks for a protest that quickly spread as critiques and demands they were making resonated with an important segment of public opinion. Drawing on ethnographic, primary and secondary data, this analysis provides an inside look at the mobilizing structures and motives behind an important protest and adds to our understanding of political flash mobs in the 21st century. Keywords: Politics, Spain, “flash mobs”, smart mobs, emotions, social movements, new information and communication technologies, ICTs, protest, elections, media, terrorism."
Supporting protest movements: The effect of the legitimacy of the claims
Past research has investigated the motivations behind support to protest actions by mainly focusing on the relationship between the perceptions of protest movements and support itself. The aim of the present research is to extend this research also by considering the qualitative content of the claims advanced by the protesters. We analyzed whether supporting a protest depends on the legitimacy of the advanced claim (i.e. in terms of adherence to democratic principles) or on the legitimacy attributed to that group. One hundred and eighty Italian citizens (45.9 % women; M age = 41.64, SD = 13.69) responded to an online questionnaire concerning a protest movement. The design included 2×2 conditions: non-threatening vs. threatening type of group and unbound vs. restricted protesters’ claims. The results showed that support given to the protest is overlooked when the group is perceived as more threatening. However, the perception of the protest group has no effect on value-oriented participants who instead focus on the claims. Estudios previos han investigado las motivaciones detrás del apoyo a las acciones de protesta, centrándose principalmente en la relación entre la percepción de los movimientos de protesta y lo apoyo. El objetivo del presente trabajo fue extender esta investigación, considerando también el contenido cualitativo de las reclamaciones presentadas por los manifestantes. Se analizó si el apoyo a una protesta depende de la legitimidad de la reclamación avanzada (en términos de adhesión a los principios democráticos) o en la legitimidad atribuida a ese grupo. Ciento chenta ciudadanos italianos (45.9% mujeres; edad M = 41.64, SD = 13.69) respondieron a un cuestionario online relativo a un movimiento de protesta. El diseño incluye 2 × 2 condiciones: tipo de grupo no amenazantes vs. amenazantes y reclamación avanzada dilatada vs. restringida. Los resultados mostraron que el apoyo a la protesta se descuida cuando el grupo se percibe como más amenazante. Sin embargo, la percepción del grupo de protesta no tuvo ningún efecto sobre los participantes orientados a los valores a que en su lugar se centraron en las reclamaciones.
Marching and voting: The electoral protest cycle
The Social Science Journal, 2023
Social movements studies have analyzed how the protest affects the electoral agenda and the outcome of elections. Here, we reverse this approach and analyze whether the electoral cycle affects the protest. With the aid of a new dataset that contains all the demonstrations and marches in Spain from 2000 to 2020 (N = 2,255), we test whether the size of the protest is influenced by the proximity of general elections. As elections offer social movements a political opportunity to air their grievances and make their demands visible to political contenders and the public, we test an electoral protest cycle hypothesis whereby the number of participants in protest events will increase as election day draws nearer. Our results confirm the existence of an electoral protest cycle, even after controlling for potential confounders such as the type of organizers, the claims of the protest, the ideology of the government, and city size.
Società Mutamento Politica, 2024
The processual approach to political violence suggests a close link between nonviolent and violent tactical repertoires. Yet in doing so it excludes cases where vio-lence appears to appear in the absence of public protest activity. This article traces how political violence emerges in the aftermath of local protest campaigns against migrant accommodation. Developing the concept of the privatization of protest, the article shows how the demobilization of protest contributes to a process where grievances are reframed into private frustrations rather than objects of political contention. Trans-formed as such, persistent patterns of intermittent political violence can sometimes grow out of private interactions, even in the absence of any consistent public protest. Applying the conceptual apparatus of frames, emotions, opportunities and to a paired process tracing of episodes of protest against Swedish migrant accommodation in 2007-2008 and 2012-2017, the article maps the causal mechanisms that create facilitative con-ditions for violence, sometimes long after the decline of nonviolent protest. Extending its discussion beyond the case of Sweden, it links the processual approach to adjacent discussions on the link between micro- and meso-level causes of political violence.