The Myth of a Painless No-Deal Brexit.pdf (original) (raw)
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Brexit: An Assessment of the Unprecedented Divorce Story and the Long Path to Ex-Membership
The UK which had been one of the major members of the EU, currently has been holding the status of an 'ex-member' following almost a four years of a rocky withdrawal process that took place for the first time ever in the EU history. This unprecedented withdrawal is likely to come up with severe negative outcomes particularly for the UK side in comparison to remaining in the Union. This study seeks to demonstrate the likely legal, political and economic ramifications of the British withdrawal by particularly concentrating on the highly critical and debated issues bargained during the withdrawal negotiations as well as to draw a detailed comparison of the outcomes of an exit under the framework of a withdrawal agreement and a no-deal scenario. Yet, the paper concludes that the second round of negotiations for determining on the terms of a future relationship might not be as less difficult than the first round examined in this study.
From Eating Cake to Crashing Out: Constructing the Myth of a No Deal Brexit
Comparative European Politics, 2019
This article traces the emergence and development of claims that the 2016 referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union delivered a mandate for a so-called 'no deal' Brexit. Utilising Lacanian ideas about group mobilisation combined with a detailed content analysis and evidence drawn from polling data, it shows that this no deal narrative should be viewed as a discursive project that was constructed by a section of Leave campaigners relatively late into the Brexit process amidst growing disillusionment with the direction that negotiations with the EU were taking. By emphasising the role of Brexit as an 'empty signifier' the article shows that Brexit was initially successful in mobilising and uniting a disparate, but often unconnected, range of discontent to its cause. However, over time the complexities of the Brexit process triggered a discursive 'war of position' as competing visions of Brexit attempted to vie for dominance amongst the Leave camp. It is within this context that the myth of no deal emerged as an attempt by an elite group of actors to re-mobilise support for their cause.
Eight months on from the EU referendum in the UK, it is still not clear what shape the new relationship between the country and its EU partners will take. These will be the subject of negotiations that are expected to start following the triggering of Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union (TEU), which is anticipated to occur in March 2017. Several studies have looked into the potential economic and financial impact of Brexit considering different scenarios, as well as into the consequences of the UK withdrawing from the Single Market under potential new arrangements with the EU. None of them has, however, thoroughly analysed the impact of the UK’s withdrawal on the rights of the estimated 4 million citizens who are likely to be directly affected by the outcome of the negotiations on the new UK-EU relationship, including the 3 million EU citizens residing in the UK and the 1.2m British citizens living across the EU.
2016
Promises of an extra £350m a week, posted on the side of a bus. Doomsday economic predictions from the Remain campaign; the reply, “We’ve had enough of experts!”. Jo Cox MP shot dead in the street, the same day that Nigel Farage unveils an anti-immigration poster which echoes propaganda images from 1930s Nazi Germany. The UK votes to Leave, and the pound collapses. Scotland votes differently, and claims new justification for independence. “What is the European Union?” the second most googled question on the day of the result. A marked increase in hate crimes reported. Boris Johnson calls for a new Royal Yacht. “Hard Brexit” and “Soft Brexit” new terms in public discourse. A country divided. Immigration at the heart of political debate in the UK. Our international reputation damaged, perhaps beyond repair.
Brexit: Chronicle of a Crisis Foretold
International Comparative Jurisprudence, 2019
The European integration process is certainly the most advanced and remarkable example of regional integration unequalled so far in any other parts of the world even though some lighter forms of regional integration have been more or less modelled on the EU. The European regional integration seemed to be unstoppable and unbreakable despite the many political and economic crises it sailed through since the 70s and more recently in the past decade. Yet for the first time in its history, one of its largest and most politically and economically powerful Member States, the UK, took in 2016 the extraordinary decision to leave the EU. Until the adoption of the Lisbon treaty in 2009, membership to the EU was for life as the original Treaty of Rome and its subsequent amending Treaties never included a clause of withdrawal. Inspired from Article I-60 of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe, Article 50 TEU recognised for the first time the right of Member State to withdraw volunta...
Thoughts on Certain Aspects of the Brexit and its Management
AARMS, 2019
This article examines certain aspects related to Brexit and its management -both from the side of the UK and the EU. We search for the answer to such questions, whether the Brexit is a crisis, and if so, then what certain effects can it have on the economy, society, everyday life, etc. of those involved, and if these effects were and are handled properly by those in charge. In addition, we review the timeline of Brexit, including the planned dates and events. The institutional background of the crisis management will also be examined in case of both parties. Please note that the article was written in the summer of 2018, consequently it does not reflect the later events and deadline extensions!