Adham Saouli, ‘Middling or Meddling: Origins and Constraints of External Influence in the Middle East’ in Adham Saouli (ed) Unfulfilled Aspirations: Middle Power Politics in the Middle East (Oxford University Press/Hurst: Under Review). (original) (raw)

Abstract

The Middle East has failed to produce great powers, but has not been in short supply of influential regional middle powers. These influential actors have played key roles in shaping the regional political order and in both resisting and enabling international penetration of the region. In this chapter, I identify and examine the elements that induce or hinder a middle power behavior in the Middle East. The behavior of regional middle powers offers useful challenges to and avenues for developing our conceptual and theoretical understandings of middle power behavior. Owing to its origins, the concept of “middle power” demarcated states that are neither great nor weak in their size, economic capability, and military power. However, an examination of Middle East regional rivalries questions this assumption; it reveals that regional influence can be exerted by actors that vary in size and capabilities. On the other hand, I find that although some actors possess middle power attributes, they choose to refrain from transforming this potential into real power. In this study I show that while it is important to consider the constitutive elements of a state, it is more useful to focus on its foreign policy behavior to account for its ability to pursue middle power politics. My working assumption is that the constitutive elements—economic wealth, military capabilities, and normative powers—are partly or in total necessary to pursue middle power behavior, but not sufficient. A regime, I find, needs to have the will and interest to pursue middle power behavior. The chapter divides into three sections. First, I discuss the constitutive and behavioral elements of middle powers in the Middle East and present a conceptual analysis that identifies six attributes a middle power should possess. Second, I identify four domestic variables that may hinder or induce middle power behavior in the Middle East. In the last section, I present a detailed empirical analysis of three types of middle powers in the region—The Aspirant, The Constrained, and The Hesitant—by examining representative cases of Iran, Qatar, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

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