Qualifizierung in und für Berlin 2030: Mehr – Anders – Besser! (original) (raw)

Prognosis and background analysis for the future development of the Berlin education and qualification system. "Berlin - Growing City" has become a common slogan, which has been discussed especially with regard to the consequences for the infrastructure. In view of the significant increase in the number of births in recent years, schools are also being expanded and renovated. The Senate Department for Urban Development and Housing has so far assumed that the population will grow to 3.8 million in 2030, although the planning basis published at the beginning of 2016 has not been able to fully take into account the consequences of the (temporary) strong influx of refugees and asylum seekers. Berlin is also growing due to the immigration of differently qualified people from the European Union and other, mostly developed countries. The high immigration rates of recent years, together with above-average birth rates, have led Berlin to grow from 3.33 million at the turn of 2011/12 to 3.6 million and 3.75 million at the end of 2017, depending on whether the statistics are based on population numbers or registered inhabitants. As a result, the city has grown by an average of 50.000 inhabitants per year. Even in the years 2015 and 2016, the number of new arrivals was only slightly higher. Only in 2017 population growth declined by about a quarter to just under 39.000. In recent years this growth has affected almost all age groups, although there have also been changes in individual years - for example, the number of children aged up to six in 2017 was slightly lower than the number of children one year younger in the previous year. The same applies to the number of 37- to 42-year-olds. However, such initial changes do not yet have to represent a trend development - they can also be short-term movements that can change again in the following year. This was also the case in earlier years. Nevertheless, it can mean a trend reversal, and especially regarding the two age groups, it cannot be ruled out that this is, at least in part, a migration due to the lack of daycare places. In recent years, the population has grown relatively continuously in almost all age groups. This is particularly true for the 20- to 30-year-olds and, although somewhat weaker, also for the following age groups up to the mid-40-year-olds. It can therefore be assumed that the birth rate will remain high in the future. Only the age groups from the mid 40s show a longer-term population decline.