The Middle East torn between Security Dilemma and Power Vacuum (original) (raw)

Shifting alliances in the Middle East: A risk of further instability

Mediterranean Dialogues, Rome 2018, 2018

The decades-old stagnation in the Middle East, sustained by US involvement and an artificial stalemate between autocratic regimes, crumbled with the US disengagement from the region, the removal of Arab autocrats, and the Arab Spring. The race between Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia to carve up a wider sphere of influence in the post-American vacuum that was created by the US withdrawal from the region risks descending the area into more instability. This instability can lead to more violence, that could spill be- yond the hitherto localised proxy wars. Syria is a perfect example of the increasing ten- sion between Iranian, Saudi and Turkish-led power blocs in the region. The recent escalation of political tension, on the other hand, is a result of the perceived shift in power balance in favour of Iran in the post-American vacuum. The US disen- gagement pushed regional powerhouses to form and consolidate regional blocs to pur- sue their political goals. Hence, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey are in a rush to strengthen their power blocs, through alliances with regional and global powers, state and non- state political actors.

A Perspective on the Evolving Geopolitics in the Middle East

2015

Though Middle Eastern region is not new to wars and conflicts, yet it has gone through a political and social quake over the past decade. Since 2003, with the American invasion of Iraq and the subsequent birth of anarchy, Middle East has converted into a fireball. The Arab spring saga, the rise of militant-non-state actors specifically the Islamic State (IS), deepening regional rivalry, the erosion of state authority, the breakup of social fabric and the widening sectarian fissure has put politics, stability and security in a dismal state. Dethroning of the Government in Yemen, followed by Saudi attack has further intensified the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia; a cause of sectarian conflicts in the region. Moreover, with the Iranian nuclear deal and the herculean terror of IS and other groups on the rise; it is argued that all regional actors and external powers will have to act responsibly in order to reverse these chaotic trends and to restore stability. The article views c...

Middle East and the International Strategic Shifts

Association of Academic Researchers and Faculties (AARF Publications), 2019

Abstract The region of the Middle East witnesses a state of nervousness dominated by sectarian conflicts and the spread of the dangers of extremism and terrorism in most Arab countries, as well as the escalation of political and military competition among the major regional powers in changing the strategic balance equations through direct clashes or acting wars. Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel are the key forces in the region, each seeking to be the only superpower in the region. The Middle East may witness other, more surprising, strategic shifts that are contrary to all expectations and possible scenarios. Perhaps this was the first lesson we learned from the Arab Spring, which may have surprised the entire world in its unpredictability, as well as its consequences and its tracks. Therefore, the political landscape in the region and the transformations of the scene carries many opportunities and challenges for the various parties, and no one enjoys sovereignty and control in general, and therefore the strategic horizon and strategic dimensions of the International Research Journal of Human Resource and Social Sciences ISSN(O): (2349-4085) ISSN(P): (2394-4218) Impact Factor 5.414 Volume 6, Issue 8, August2019 Website- www.aarf.asia, Email : editoraarf@gmail.com © Association of Academic Researchers and Faculties (AARF) A Monthly Double-Blind Peer Reviewed Refereed Open Access International e-Journal - Included in the International Serial Directories. Page | 22 scene is still trying to form levers, both according to position and in accordance to the region‟s strategy. Key words: National Strategy, National security, Middle East, Arab Spring.**Abstract** The Middle East is experiencing a state of anxiety characterized by sectarian conflicts and the rise of extremism and terrorism across many Arab countries. This situation is compounded by heightened political and military competition among the major regional powers, as they seek to alter the strategic balance through direct confrontations or proxy wars. Key players in the region—including Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel—are each striving to emerge as the sole superpower. The region may also encounter unexpected strategic shifts that defy prevailing expectations and scenarios. The Arab Spring served as an early lesson in this unpredictability, surprising the entire world with its outcomes and consequences. As a result, the political landscape in the Middle East, along with its evolving dynamics, presents numerous opportunities and challenges for various stakeholders. No single entity enjoys full sovereignty or control, indicating that the strategic horizon remains in flux. The region is continuing to seek mechanisms to navigate its complexities, influenced by both geopolitical positions and overarching strategies. Key words: National Strategy, National Security, Middle East, Arab Spring.

Survival of Two Regional Powers at the Expense of the Security of the Middle East

Many have called the current relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia a cold war. In an article in "The National Interest", Mohammed Ayoob refers to the competition between the two as "a new cold war" [Ayoob, 2013]. The relationship betweenIran and Saudi Arabia for the last three and a half decades has been tumultuous at best, so talk of conflict between these two countries isn't anything new. The conflict is occasionally given more visibility to the rest of the world by media attention and political analysis, but it's typically overshadowed by other newsworthy events elsewhere. However, now it looks like their infighting has expanded to full out aggression. The upsizing in military might have major and long-lasting consequences for many of the people that live in the Middle East. Current events related to the conflict between the two countries risk creating a new border system to emerge. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are fully responsible for the birth, development, and shaping of the coming borders. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the background of the conflictbetween Iran and SaudiArabia; a conflict with a Middle Eastern instability and danger of secessions in the region as part of the consequences. It is intended to provide a highlighting of the twocountries' hugeinternalchallenges and thus the need to externalenemies in the form of intensifying the historicalShia-Sunniconflict.

It's Complicated: Geopolitical and Strategic Dynamics in the Contemporary Middle East

Orbis, 2018

The Middle East is a complex system, not comprehensible through simplistic, "single factor" thinking. Global dynamics-a re-emergent multipolar power system, anti-globalism and xenophobia, the decline in U.S. willingness to lead and engage-interact corrosively with deep regional trends. The West has given up on engaging or changing the Middle East, and now wants to quarantine and wall it off. The important actors in the region today sit on its margins: Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Israel. With Egypt and Iraq sidelined, Arab leadership is left to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who struggle with it. Washington avoids the burden of leadership, which its rivals assume, while on Palestine and Iran, has been activist and even disruptive. American policy is too focused on Iran and the Islamic State; Russia and Turkey, which may be greater challenges over the long term, are more significant and influential players in the region than the United States. good part of the punditry and policy advocacy on the Middle East belongs to the school which author Philip Tetlock calls (after Isaiah Berlin) "hedgehogs": those who "know one big thing," aggressively extend the explanatory reach of that "one big thing" into new domains, and reach for formulaic solutions to ill-defined problems. 1 The current situation in the Middle East has been attributed variously to the influence of single actors or trends. The list of "big things" includes: Barack Obama, Donald Trump, George W. Bush, Mark Sykes and Francois Georges Picot, Iran, Israel and the Occupation, Vladimir Putin, the Muslim Brotherhood, the religion of Islam, the Islamic State (IS), the Shi'i-Sunni split, or democratization-just to name the most popular. While this strategy is analytically handy and neat, it is onedimensional, and does not advance a deeper understanding of what is going on in the Middle East nor does it act as a guide for effective policy. To use a Star Trek metaphor, the Middle East can be best visualized as a game of multi-dimensional chess: there are many things going on simultaneously, all of which

Shaping the Political Order of the Middle East: Crisis and Opportunity

Rome, IAI, April 2019, 14 p. (IAI Papers ; 19|09), ISBN 978-88-9368-101-8, 2019

The Middle East has undergone a radical transformation since the 2011 Arab uprisings. Arab states have either been severely weakened or have collapsed; territorial boundaries are fragile and no longer impervious amid devastating, far-reaching transnational conflict. Regional actors, who have augmented their military capacity since the war on ISIS started, have reverted to old geopolitical rivalries and interstate confrontations. Amid this regional contest, a reawakened and resurgent Russia has disrupted what was previously a US enforced and shaped regional security architecture. Russia's resurgence in the Middle East also comes amid an increasingly assertive China. Its global ambitions to challenge the Western-led international order has manifested itself through the inroads Beijing has made into cash-poor Middle East countries through investment and reconstruction packages, within the ambit of its "One Belt One Road" vision. This paper analyses the multiple alliances and conflicts that underpin the region's political and security challenges, looking at how these have enabled opportunity structures for alternative authorities on the ground but also at the international level. It explains how commercial interactions with the Middle East have allowed China to adopt a panoramic, comprehensive strategy for the region, one that has undermined Western influence. It argues this is because Beijing remains an untested power in a region that has a pressing need for Chinese capital inflows but one that has yet to fully comprehend the implications of forging a relationship of dependency on China. While the West has a legacy of conflict in the region and support for autocrats, the US and its European allies have also invested billions of dollars into the promotion of good governance and civil society. Despite resentment toward Western meddling in the region, the US and its allies have established themselves as pioneers of democratic norms and much of the region continue to associate these with the West. The same cannot, and most likely will not, be said about Russia and China in the coming years.

Middle East: A Regional Instability Prototype Provoking Third Party Interventions

Journal of development and social sciences, 2021

Third party interventions always prolong the interstate or civil wars with unending sufferings and devastations. The entire Middle East region is fraught with tensions, conflicts, civil wars and rivalries. From strategic interests to power grabbing, sectarian divisions, flaws in the civil and social structure of the state and society, ethnic insurrections, and many other shapes of instability syndromes can be diagnosed in this region. In the post-Arab Spring, 2011, the emerging new regional hierarchical order for power/dominance, in addition to the weakening/declining dominant US power in the region, changed the entire shape of already conflict-ridden region. New weak or collapsing states and bifurcation of the 'status quo' and 'counter-hegemonic' states along with their respective allies, made this region a prototype of instability in the regional security complex of the Middle East, as a direct result of these developments. The perpetuation of these abnormalities would not recede this instability conundrum from the region, provoking third party intervention, if not contained.

Middle East: A Regional Instability Prototype Provoking Third Party Interventions 1 Waseem Din 2 Prof. Dr. Iram Khalid

Third party interventions always prolong the interstate or civil wars with unending sufferings and devastations. The entire Middle East region is fraught with tensions, conflicts, civil wars and rivalries. From strategic interests to power grabbing, sectarian divisions, flaws in the civil and social structure of the state and society, ethnic insurrections, and many other shapes of instability syndromes can be diagnosed in this region. In the post-Arab Spring, 2011, the emerging new regional hierarchical order for power/dominance, in addition to the weakening/declining dominant US power in the region, changed the entire shape of already conflict-ridden region. New weak or collapsing states and bifurcation of the 'status quo' and 'counter-hegemonic' states along with their respective allies, made this region a prototype of instability in the regional security complex of the Middle East, as a direct result of these developments. The perpetuation of these abnormalities would not recede this instability conundrum from the region, provoking third party intervention, if not contained.

The Crises in the Middle East

European Journal of East Asian Studies, 2015

Focusing on the evolution of China’s interactions with Egypt and the parties to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, this article aims to understand the contexts that encourage increased synergy between Middle Eastern actors and emerging powers. Based on a wide collection of data and a constructivist approach that negates neither realist nor liberal premises but rather enriches them with the role of ideas and identities, the article posits that the observed developments are constitutive of a reordering of global balances. This reordering is seen as challenging the Western-dominated status quo ante, not through the deconstruction of the international system but rather through a resistance to the Western monopoly over the latter’s evolution and over the production and interpretation of norms.