The Evolution of the Provisional IRA: 1969-1972 (original) (raw)
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Irish Republican Politics and Violence before the Peace Process, 1968-1994
Analyses of the Provisional IRA in Northern Ireland tend to underplay the influence of political strategy in the 1970s, preferring to emphasise militarism. Similarly, the persistence of militarism in the 1980s is often obscured by the attention paid to a 'new' republican political orientation. This article seeks to draw attention to the IRA's evolving attitude to the 'problem' of Ulster unionism, and its various interpretations of the likely efficacy of violence throughout the period. Republicanism is best understood as a deeply rooted working class ethno-nationalist movement interacting closely with the other agents of the Northern Ireland conflict: constitutional nationalism, unionism and the British government. 'Armed struggle' became a declining asset for republicanism as it came to be seen less as a form of 'popular guerrilla warfare' and more as 'terrorism'.
The Provisional IRA's disengagement process has had such a substantial impact on the Irish Republican movement that it may succeed where previous attempts at disengagement have failed: the movement has shown signs of de-radicalisation that make a return to Republican violence unlikely. Despite numerous defeats and lulls in activity, the IRA has been able to continue in one form or another for a century, returning to violence when the opportunity arose. Whenever it disengaged in the past, it was on the basis of tactical disengagement, therefore there was no substantial opposition to using terrorism and political violence. When the opportunity arose, following the repression of the 1960s civil rights movement, the Provisional IRA embarked on an armed campaign against the British state that would be responsible for claiming the lives of thousands. Now the Provisional IRA's campaign is over and with dissident Republicans weakened but still active, Republicans both hope and fear that history will repeat itself: as the commitment to armed struggle still remains, the IRA will re-emerge when the opportunity presents itself. In such a mind-set, claims that terrorism has ended in Ireland may seem like a hollow conclusion to draw. However, the book has argued that the Provisional IRA's disengagement has led to substantial change that gives optimism when stating that terrorism has ended and that the likelihood of a return of violence is substantially lower than it was any time in the last one hundred years of the Irish Republican movement. A successful framing of disengagement underpinned the organisational disbandment of the Provisional IRA, which acted to not only bring along most of its members but also large swathes of society. The political system that emerged following disengagement, despite being fraught with problems, is durable enough to
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 2009
This article explores the Ulster Volunteer Force's (UVF) decision in May 2007 to abandon its campaign of “armed resistance” and pursue “a non-military, civilianized, role” in Northern Ireland. It does so by analyzing the UVF's actions in light of the academic literature on strategic terrorism. The central argument advanced in the article is that the UVF's decision to put its weapons “beyond reach” and re-structure its organization along civilian lines is (a) internally consistent with its stated policy of countering “violent nationalism,” (b) symptomatic of the transformation in the sociopolitical context since the 1994 paramilitary cease-fires, and (c) the logical outworking of the group's lack of popular legitimacy among its core Protestant working-class support-base. The article concludes with an assessment of the risks and possible dividends that the end of UVF terrorism holds for the Northern Ireland peace process.
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This article presents an empirical analysis of a unique dataset of 1240 former members of the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA). We highlight the shifting sociological and operational profile of PIRA's cadre, and highlight these dynamics in conjunction with primary PIRA documents and secondary interview sources. The effect of these changes in terms of the scale and intensity of PIRA violence is also considered. Although this is primarily a study of a disbanded violent organization, it contains broad policy implications beyond the contemporary violence of dissident movements in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. We conclude with a consideration of how a shifting sociological profile impacts upon group effectiveness, resilience, homogeneity, and the turn toward peaceful means of contention.