Migration and Demographic Changes: The Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina (original) (raw)
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Dynamics and Directions of Demographic Changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina
IJASOS- International E-journal of Advances in Social Sciences, 2017
Population of BiH as a whole and its lower territorial units depends on the birth rate and migration balance. Suprapopulation (population growth) is present in a very small number of territorial units (villages and municipalities), while depopulation (decrease of population) has affected a large number of spatial units. During the recent times, industrialization, agrarian reform and urbanization led to the migration and depopulation of biological type in rural areas in the last 30 years. Cities, as opposed to rural areas, have had so far superpopulation, noting that now in some of them there is a biological depopulation. The form of simple renewal of the population in BiH has changed in the late 80's of the last century. There are numerous causes of migration in the territory of BiH, but the economic and political and a security reasons were the most important. The migration demographic losses were greatest in the total demographic losses. As a result of biovitalitent, biodynamic and migration processes and relations in BiH, dominated by the depopulation spatial units, spread to over more than 3/4 of its territory. Depopulation and aging are two related demographic processes that most influence the demographic development of an area. Depopulation encouraged by emigration and low fertility is generally characterized as a problem, especially for smaller territorial units that are faced with the process of demographic extinction. Demographic change cannot be solved by partial measures and small reforms. Major reforms, which will compensate population decline and aging population, will be plenty painful. Social situation for future generations will be quite different and very uncertain looking from today's position.
Bosnia and Herzegovina and its diaspora: demographic and economic aspects
In the last two to three years, Bosnia and Herzegovina has been known as the country with dynamic economic development as well as the country which is characterized by more or less intensive emigration flows. However, the war developments in the period 1992-1995 changed population and economic image of this country to a large extent. After the end of the war, about 50 % of Bosnia and Herzegovina's emigrants stayed in foreign countries while economic migrations from Bosnia and Herzegovina have been especially intensified in the postwar period. Bosnia and Herzegovina is mainly abandoned by productively-creative and " fertile capital " which is essential for immigration countries and for the realisation of their pro fertility policy and strengthening pensioner's funds. It is to be expected that until Bosnia and Herzegovina joins the European Union emigration from this country will continue due to economic factors and uncertain future. Therefore, the main aims of this paper are the analysis of contemporary demographic situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina and defining the basics of possible population policy which would enable the insight in migrational processes. The economic aspect of the paper represents a " natural " continuation of previous presentation and in this part we will analyze collected empirical data about financial assets sent by Bosnia and Herzegovina's diaspora to the mother country. Foreign remittances and migrant's donations are a new phenomenon which has been attracting attention of migrational experts in the last few years. In Bosnia and Herzegovina nobody meticulously deals with this way of foreign capital entrance to the country. In this paper the research is directed to positive and negative effects of this capital which enters Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is especially necessary to investigate the causes of such situation and the possibilities for improvements in the structure of capital use in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Vienna Yearbook of population research - ÖSTERREICHISCHE AKADEMIE DER WISSENSCHAFTEN , 2022
The countries of the Western Balkans, through population emigration, are losing their longterm potential for economic growth. Official data show that countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia have lost 181.034 of their citizens in the period 2014-2019, who have received residence permits in other EU countries. With the emigration of the population, primarily young people in the age group 25-45, countries lose many times over. This category represents the largest consumer in a economy, which directly affects the gross domestic product. In addition, society loses by investing in education, which creates a direct economic loss due to emigration. Finally, emigration of this category limits the economic potential for long-term development of these countries. The hypothesis we want to prove in the paper is that the emigration of the population reduces the number of enrolled pupils in schools and universities, limits the long-term economic potential for growth and development and puts long-term pressure on the segment of social services. In this paper, in order to prove the hypothesis, we will analyze the level of economic activity through GDP growth during the period 2014-2019 in order to measure the achieved level of total product, and monitor the emigration of the population from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. We will also calculate the reduction in potential output measured through GDP as a result of labor emigration, and the negative effects on the education and social service sectors. Key words: Emigration, GDP, Economy, Demography
Hidden geographies of population implosion in Bosnia and Herzegovina
European Journal of Geography, 2020
Bosnia and Herzegovina has witnessed continuous depopulation since 1991. Depopulation was foreseen even without the emergence of war, but not nearly to that extent or that early. Bosnia and Herzegovina is in a worse demographic position than the European Union countries that show similar demographic trends. Very low birth rates, low fertility and low natural population growth have been recorded in the time of weaker economic development, which increasingly accelerates the emigration of the educated population in particular, and permanently adversely affects the reproductive potential of the country. This paper considers a hidden mutual relationship between the demographic situation (natural change, population ageing) in Bosnia and Herzegovina and its citizens' system of values. According to the survey conducted on 614 respondents, Bosnia and Herzegovina's citizens have fewer children than they would like.
Structural Determinants of Bosniak Minority Returns to Republika Srpska Following the Bosnian War
2022
The subject of this study is the post-conflict demographics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, specifically the structural determinants of the returns of displaced Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims) to the Bosnian entity of Republika Srpska following the Bosnian War (1992-1995). It seeks to assess the relative weight of the various factors that influenced the percentage of returnees to the places where they formed an ethnic minority after the war. In contrast to other studies which use surveys as their data sources, this paper works at the level of municipalities (n=55) as a unit of analysis to ascertain what is the relative contribution of the political, socioeconomic, and ethnocultural variables, as well as the severity of wartime violence. The results of the statistical models presented herein suggest that Bosniak minority returns are negatively affected by wartime casualties, and positively affected by the prewar percentage of Bosniaks in a given municipality. Additionally, political and economic factors are important. As over eighty million people are forcibly displaced worldwide, this paper also aims to serve as a contribution to the discussion about what prevents the return of forced migrants in general.
Socio-demographic analysis of border regions of Bosnia and Herzegovina
Acta geographica Slovenica
This paper analyses the statistical parameters that give a comprehensive overview of the socio-demographic state of the border areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and it represents a novel attempt to examine the disparity and relationships between central and peripheral parts of national territory. The methodology is based on examining the differences between border and non-border municipalities/cities according to four groups of indicators, to obtain four indices: depopulation, natural change, ageing and education. Statistically significant differences were found primarily in the context of population age structure, and it can be concluded that the ageing process has affected bordering regions more than the rest of the country.
The Demographic Ageing of Population in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Causes and Consequences
In this paper the age structure and the ageing population process in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the second half of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century is analyzed. The main reasons that caused changes in the age composition of the population and the population ageing in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been researched. The main causes of the population ageing in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the second half of the 20th century were primarily trends in fertility rates and secondarily trends in mortality rates. The economic growth of Bosnia and Herzegovina after World War II conditioned changes in the economic and educational structure of the population and with that the changes in the natural increase rates and migration balance. The war was the main cause of negative demographic changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the period from 1992 to 1995, and the postwar adverse socioeconomic, political and other circumstances have been the cause of negative demographic trends after 1995. The aim of this paper is to determine the level of population ageing in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the consequences this process could have on the demographic future of this country.
Different population dynamics of the three main nations of Bosnia and Herzegovina during the era of Yugoslav federation raised uncertainty and tensions in this socialist republic. The differences in the demographic development of Muslims, Serbs and Croats began to clearly manifest especially during the years 1971–1991. These demographic changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina in this period are important to perceive as some of the crucial elements which, together with some other negative factors (primarily the economic decline, paralysis of the federal government, mounting political tensions and nationalism) during the 1980s, were the cause for the interethnic tension to build up. Due to the consequences of different population dynamics we tried to identify the regions where the representation of individual nations was transformed. Such regions, during the monitored period, registered increasing interethnic rivalry. In these regions it is possible to apply the so called Ethnic Competition Theory. The moment the diverse demographic dynamics distinctly increase ethnic tensions, and cause mutual confl icts in the monitored area to escalate it is possible to quantify the rate of this ethnic rivalry in a specifi c region with the help of recorded changes of local numerical representation of individual ethnic groups. With the use of three selected indicators (index of ethnic competition, index of demographic disadvantage and relative growth rate) we can measure susceptibility to confl ict. This quantitative analysis of the ethnic structure and population growth should partially clarify reasons for the subsequent ethnic cleansing in the specifi c regions during the civil war in Bosnia and Herzegovina.