Two Years After Brexit Referendum: A Quantitative Inquiry into Public Attitudes towards the EU in the UK (original) (raw)

Mapping EU attitudes: Conceptual and empirical dimensions of Euroscepticism and EU support

European Union Politics, 2011

Public attitudes towards the European Union (EU) are at the heart of a growing body of research. The nature, structure and antecedents of these attitudes, however, are in need of conceptual and empirical refinement. With growing diversification of the policies of the Union, a one-dimensional approach to attitudes towards the EU may be insufficient. This study reviews existing approaches towards theorizing EU public opinion. Based on this inventory, originally collected public opinion survey data (n ¼ 1394) indicate the presence of five dimensions of EU attitudes: performance, identity, affection, utilitarianism and strengthening. The study furthermore shows that different predictors of EU public opinion matter to differing extents when explaining these dimensions. In light of these findings, we suggest tightening the link, conceptually and empirically, between attitudinal dimensions and their antecedents.

and EU support Mapping EU attitudes : Conceptual and empirical dimensions of

2011

Public attitudes towards the European Union (EU) are at the heart of a growing body of research. The nature, structure and antecedents of these attitudes, however, are in need of conceptual and empirical refinement. With growing diversification of the policies of the Union, a one-dimensional approach to attitudes towards the EU may be insufficient. This study reviews existing approaches towards theorizing EU public opinion. Based on this inventory, originally collected public opinion survey data (n1⁄4 1394) indicate the presence of five dimensions of EU attitudes: performance, identity, affection, utilitarianism and strengthening. The study furthermore shows that different predictors of EU public opinion matter to differing extents when explaining these dimensions. In light of these findings, we suggest tightening the link, conceptually and empirically, between attitudinal dimensions and their antecedents.

Measuring Public Support for European Integration across Time and Countries: The 'European Mood' Indicator

Against the background of the growing contestation of European integration in recent decades, special attention has been paid to describing and explaining public opinion toward the European Union (EU). In the context of increasingly constraining dissensus, 1 public support – and more broadly, public acceptance of the EU – have become crucial to party strategies, European policy making and, possibly, to the course of European integration. Studying public opinion and its interaction with partisan strategies and policy making requires an adequate instrument for measuring citizens' preferences. Comparability over time is necessary in order to provide a dynamic account of the relationship between public opinion, party politics and policy making. Yet studies of public opinion all face a common problem: consistent data series on public opinion regarding policy issues are scarce, as most items are not available in a consistent form over a sufficient time span to detect changes in public opinion. This problem worsens when performing an international comparison, given the difficulty of finding comparable data over time and across countries. This article extends the issue evolution perspective developed in US public opinion studies 2 to the European research agenda. We lack a consistent longitudinal and cross-national instrument for capturing public support for the EU, which could be included in multivariate analyses. As no comparative panel data is available on public opinion toward European integration, variations can only be compared at the macro level. However, with the exception of the Eurobarometer (EB) surveys, regular surveys covering at least several EU member states remain rare. This scarcity is coupled with numerous interruptions in data series, due to survey-specific or rotating modules of items, or to changes in question wording. As a result, most long-term aggregate studies of EU support analyze the evolution of responses to a single indicator: asking * Centre Emile Durkheim, Sciences Po Bordeaux

Attitudes Within the 27 Member States on the Future of the EU in the Light of Brexit

2018

This chapter examines the attitudes of the 27 member states to the prospective UK departure from the European Union (EU) and to the future of the EU, both in terms of the perspective of their governments and of their public opinion. It looks at the risks of the rise or reinforcement of home-grown populists or even of copycat referendums. It also asks whether other member states will seek to slow down or accelerate the process of European integration, or else to buttress the status quo. Finally, it considers some other sensitive issues, such as the balance between representative democracy and the use of referendums on EU matters and the interrelationships between the Brexit process and other challenges to the EU such as those posed by illiberalism in Hungary and Poland.

PUBLIC OPINION and PARTICIPATION in the EUROPEAN UNION

EUSA Public Opinion and Participation Section Chair The link between public opinion and participation has never been more important for the future of the European Union. Politicians want to know citizens' satisfaction with government policies and the state of the economy and their policy preferences. Surveys of public opinion tap into people's degree of satisfaction and help decision makers adjust their policies and strategies to ensure success in upcoming elections. As such, public opinion polling has become an important tool of governments everywhere whether European Commission or member states or private individuals and organizations conduct them. In addition to electoral issues, public opinion surveys provide valuable information on peoples' changing attitudes, beliefs, and values. 1 Today, the EU faces surmountable challenges that threaten the future of the Union. These include economic and financial problems of many member states, institutional shortcomings at the EU level to provide effective policies for economic recovery, two-­‐track EU integration (Eurozone and others), and democratic deficits to name a few. EU Quo Vadis? There is no denial that " ever closer union " 2 must be achieved economically as well as politically if the EU is to survive the domestic and external challenges it faces. On the economic front, a deepening of integration will enhance the advantages of EU's internal market (yet to be completed) and protect its members against external and domestic shocks by creating symmetry across the regions. Politically, a deeper union will legitimize governance of a more united EU and bring its institutions closer to the people. Such deepening of political integration will also provide protection against nationalistic outlooks that favor a dissolution of the Union. At the same time, it will go a long way in legitimizing the EU as a true global actor. Perhaps jumping into Economic and Monetary Union prior to completion of the Common Market (Single Market) was premature but external systemic changes pushed European leaders to make that decision. Subsequent monetary union among some of the states further created division within the union. Add to this the very slow pace of political union and one gets a formula for disaster. As many economists would say " monetary union without a political union would not work. " 3 It only takes one major financial crisis to bring that monetary union down like a house of cards. The EU is currently working hard to ensure that will not happen by pushing ahead with new formulas for fiscal coordination that blends its supranational and intergovernmental decision-­‐making mechanisms. Yet, ordinary citizens are rarely informed of the EU, its institutions, or its policies. In other words, while the EU knows a lot about its citizens through extensive surveys, the same cannot be said the other way around. So where lies the problem? Public Opinion The Eurobarometer (EB) has been the instrument of choice for surveying pubic opinion in the European Union. Jacques-­‐René Rabier, a senior official involved in social sciences at the

Beyond Euro-skepticism, understanding attitudes towards the EU Support for Europe: Assessing the Complexity of Individual Attitudes

Recent scholarly work has underlined the importance of being cautious about the notion of Euro-skepticism by putting the stress on alternative concepts and measures. This theoretical and empirical contribution has enriched the debate on support for Europe and its potential multidimensionality. However, the fit between theoretical conceptualization and measured attitudes is still under-investigated. Do European citizens actually express different types of support? To what extent are these attitudes as structured as we think? This paper investigates the different dimensions that individuals associate with " support for Europe " and whether it varies across national context. We test the empirical validity of three conceptualizations of support for Europe: (a) diffuse versus specific support, (b) identity versus diffuse support, (c) static versus dynamic perception of the European Union. To investigate these patterns, we relied on survey data from Eurobarometer. Methodologically, we use item-response theory modelling. This paper demonstrates that attitudes towards Europe are structured but in a less fine-grained manner than hypothesized in the literature. The distinction between diffuse and specific support is robust at the European scale as well as within each national context. Consequently, we provide an empirical tool to comparatively measure support in all member states. However it is not the case for the other dimensions of support, especially identity, and we advocate caution in using this variable as an explanatory variable.

What Contributes to Change and Stability in Individual-level Attitudes towards Britain’s Membership of the EU? An Analysis of the British Election Panel Studies, 1987-1992 and 1992-1997

Journal of Contemporary European Research

The sources of support for the European Union amongst individuals have been studied exhaustively in recent years, but those factors which contribute to stable and unstable opinions have received less scholarly attention. This article uses the best available panel data to assess which factors contributed to both stable and unstable opinion on the European issue in Britain during a period when the major parties were in the process of revising their positions and we might also expect individuals to change their views. Analysis of the British Election Study Panel Studies shows that there is apparently significant individual-level change between 1987-1992 and 1992-1997. Using multinomial logistic regression estimation, this article then assesses which particular sociological and psychological factors are associated with stable and unstable views between 1987-1992 and 1992-1997. It shows that particular individual-level characteristics are related to stable and unstable opinions in the tw...

Action and attitudes matter: International public opinion towards the European Union

European Union Politics, 2013

Descriptive studies on the European Union's global image reveal generally favourable feelings towards the European Union on the part of citizens outside Europe. However, European Union perceptions vary considerably across countries. This article argues that these patterns can be analytically explained by taking context and individual factors into account. European Union behaviour and an individual's supranationalist attitude should exert a substantial impact on citizens' feelings. A multi-level model confirms the expectations. These findings imply practically that the behaviour of the European Union and other International Organizations shapes public opinion and that it might, in the future, negatively influence global public opinion towards the European Union.