Climate Science: Simulations of the combined effect of long solar cycles and multidecadal ocean oscillations (original) (raw)

The study of climate is one of the most complex and most multidisciplinary areas of research known to science. Models are used, which are mathematical representations of forcings, interactions and feedbacks of all the variables that affect climate. Most models are driven by atmospheric physics and play an important role in our understanding of the Earth's climate and how it will likely change in the future. An extensive review of the scientific literature reveals a striking simplification of solar output and its impact on climate. The well-known 11-year cycles are represented but there is no representation of longer cycles such as the Gleissberg 88-year cycle and the Devries 208-year cycle. The reason for the omission is most likely the fact that multi-decadal solar cycles are poorly understood as to their occurrence, strength and periodicity. Nonetheless, the longer cyclicalities appear to be present in the observed temperatures. The absence of important forcing factors from the models has led to a theory that is fundamentally underdetermined. There are fewer interactions and feedbacks in the models and too many unknown variables and degrees of freedom. An underdetermined system typically has many solutions. In other words, there can be other theories that are compatible with the same set of observations. This study presents a reduced model of six elements of natural variability that are not currently included in the models: four solar decadal cycles and two decadal oceanic oscillations. Monte-Carlo simulations are performed on the six stochastic natural variables and are shown to produce patterns similar to the observed patterns published in the literature.