(In)Vested Interest - China's Belt and Road Initiative (original) (raw)

The Geopolitics of China’s Overseas Port Investments: A Comparative Analysis of Greece and Pakistan

Geopolitics, 2022

With China’s continuous rise and growing external commercial, strategic, and political endeavours, questions have arisen about the motivation, timing, and locale of China’s outreaching strategies. This research analyzes China’s overseas port investments through a comparative study of Greece and Pakistan, two important partners of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Adopting the neoclassical realist framework and drawing on expert interviews, official statistics, and policy documents, this paper reveals how China’s economic security objectives in combination with changing geopolitical structures led to its external port investments. This research contributes to the studies on rising powers and geopolitics by showing how China as a rising power capitalizes on geopolitical opportunities created by the changing interests of dominant powers to expand its presence in strategically important regions.

China’s Port Acquisitions in Sri Lanka & Djibouti: Lessons on Chinese Developmental Financing for the Philippines

Why did China acquire equity returns at ports in Sri Lanka and Djibouti at this particular moment? I argue that Beijing’s previous actions of forgiving foreign debt made sense during the period of China’s rise, which depended on natural resource imports for export manufacturing and political support from foreign countries. However, during today’s period of China’s peak, acquiring ports in Sri Lanka and Djibouti can be explained by three crucial factors: (1) the falling rate of profitability; (2) China’s behavior under Xi Jinping’s leadership; (3) and the emergence of the Belt & Road Initiative. I examine and compare China’s foreign acquisitions in Sri Lanka and Djibouti. And finally, I draw out the key lessons from China’s engagements with both states to examine what it means for the Philippines.

'Debt Trap Diplomacy' or 'Win-Win' Partnership?: An examination of Chinese projects in Laos and Sri Lanka

This essay explores the bilateral investment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Laos) and Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka (Sri Lanka). It specifically draws attention to the China-Laos Railway and the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka to examine whether Chinese investment projects are indicative of the PRC’s ‘Debt Trap Diplomacy’ or instead are examples of ‘Win-Win’ partnerships between countries of the Global South. The essay begins by sketching the ‘Debt Trap Diplomacy’ narrative as discussed in the media and scholarly work and then turns to the PRC’s soft power characterization of ‘Win-Win’ partnerships. The next section also justifies why the cases of Sri Lanka and Laos have been selected for this study.

Demystifying the Role of Chinese Commercial Actors in the Decision-Making Process of Foreign Assistance: The Case of Post-war Sri Lanka

The Challenges of Post-war Development in Asia and Africa

With a view to demystifying Chinese foreign assistance, this paper will look at Chinese assistance through the lens of the changing nature of Chinese SOEs. Drawing on empirical evidence gathered from secondary literature as well as interviews with key informants, it maps the dynamics and the political economy of Chinese assistance to Sri Lanka by throwing light on the relationship between the host country (Sri Lanka), profit-seeking Chinese economic actors (SOEs), and the Chinese state. In particular, the paper explains how Chinese commercial actors, reshaped by the forces of economic globalization, play a critical role in bridging the gap between development priorities in the host country and overcapacity of China, shaping China’s foreign assistance policies and Sri Lanka national development agenda in a way that fulfill their commercial interests to ascend the global value chain. Such role shift is made possible by the policy gap between Chinese government’s political non-intervention in foreign assistance and the proactive economic involvement of Chinese business in host countries. The political economy of contemporary Chinese foreign assistance, as outlined in this paper only serves to underline the embedded challenges of economic globalization, namely distributive justice (Kessler and Subramanian, 2013), and the importance of a multilateral and multi-stakeholder approach to address the same. Part I of this outlines how the stakeholder interest among host country, Chinese government and Chinese business generated nation-state based 1994 paradigm of Chinese foreign assistance. Part 2, the main section of the paper, describes how 1994 paradigm is in fact exceeded by new current practice driven by new stakeholder interests, and sketches a four- step ‘new’ paradigm. Firstly, Chinese businesses undertake grant-based project. Secondly, businesses explore projects of mutual interest and propose to host country government. Thirdly, host country government applies for development financing for BOT projects from Beijing on behalf of Chinese businesses. Fourth, Chinese businesses become fully-fledged local commercial developer. The 'new' paradigm is illustrated with a case study of the Chinese SOE in Sri Lanka. Part 3 discusses the implications of this ‘new’ paradigm for both host country—in this case Sri Lanka—and Chinese policy making, underlining how both are being transformed. Firstly, exclusive channel between Chinese business and host government for Chinese development financing might crowd out the representation of ethnic minority in the national development agenda setting. It might cause distributive injustice that might re-stimulate civil conflict. Secondly, the exclusive channel for distributing Chinese development financing might crowd out local private sector to express concerns over development priorities, such as agricultural modernization and clean energy, which limits the participation of local stakeholder into new supply chain. Therefore, local export capacity doesn't come as fast as loans incurred by infrastructure, thus burdens debt sustainability. Thirdly, those who are crowded out from Chinese development financing might become destabilizing factor thus hampers the trade security of Maritime Silk Road in the strategic chokepoint near Malacca Strait. The paper concludes by highlighting the significance of developing critical assessments of Chinese foreign assistance and stressing the importance of engaging with the challenges presented by the power of Chinese capital to shape its contours especially through multi-stakeholder engagement

China’s Engagement with Smaller South Asian Countries

U.S. Institute of Peace, 2019

When the government of Sri Lanka transferred operations of Hambantota port to a Chinese majority-held joint venture for 99 years, this event heightened concerns about China’s presence in the smaller countries of South Asia (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and Maldives). Some commentators have suggested that Sri Lanka, as well as other South Asian nations that have funded major infrastructure projects through China’s Belt and Road Initiative, are victims of “China’s debt-trap diplomacy.” This report finds that the reality is much more complicated.

CHINA’S MALLEABLE SOVEREIGNTY ALONG THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE: THE CASE OF THE 99-YEAR CHINESE LEASE OF HAMBANTOTA PORT

NYU JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LAW AND POLITICS, 2019

Since China Merchant Port Holdings and Sri Lanka signed a 99-year Concession Agreement for the 15,000 acres of Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka in 2017 as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), media outlets and academics have used the agreement as a proof of China’s new interventionist and expansionist attitude, realized through debt-trap diplomacy. China has a reputation as the stronghold of Westphalia sovereignty. However, the BRI and increased Chinese investments abroad may modify its attitude toward sovereignty. In protecting its interests and its nationals abroad, is China adopting similar legal regimes and techniques to those adopted by Western powers in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries— or is China taking a different path? This article, using local media reports and interviews of important stakeholders, looks at the available sections of the Concession Agreement of Hambantota Port and contextualizes the agreement in light of international law and evolving Chinese conceptions of sovereignty. It argues that China, relying on the contested and political notion of sovereignty, is using similar legal techniques as Western powers used since the nineteenth century, and that its understanding of sovereignty continues to be malleable in order to accommodate new evolving interests.

Demystifying the Role of Chinese Commercial Actors in Shaping China’s Foreign Assistance: The Case of Post-war Sri Lanka

The Challenges of Post-war Development in Asia and Africa

Hedging against its potential exclusion from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and other mega trading agreements, China embarked on its 21st Century Maritime Silk Road agenda to generate growth through supply chain integration and infrastructure construction in South Asian economies. However, the characteristics of China’s business-led and elite-oriented overseas development practices created policy gaps in high-risk countries. Based on interviews and fieldwork focused on Chinese State-Owned-Enterprises (SOEs) in Sri Lanka, this paper explores how globalization changed the nature of these SOEs: from policy executor to both policy maker and market actor in host countries and in China. However, these changes in nature and influence of key Chinese economic actors in host countries are actually not reflected by, and are in fact out of step with, the 1994 regulation that lays down the principle of non-interventionism in foreign assistance. Such a mismatch between expansionist business and restrained regulation leads to a new paradigm where businesses, especially SOEs, serve as a bridge between the host country and Beijing to identify areas where business interest and development needs intersect, thereby shaping development financing distribution in a way that facilitates SOEs’ ascension of the global value chain. However, the exclusion of the local private sector from expressing the most pressing needs makes the new paradigm insufficient to integrate the local supply chain. This, in turn, implies the new paradigm is less able to address debt sustainability problems, and geopolitical and ethnic tension in high-risk regions. In order to redress this imbalance, this paper proposes the inclusion of the private sector and civil society into China’s mainly business-led overseas development paradigm.

Demystifying Role of Commercial Actors in the Decision-Making Process of China's Foreign Assitance: Sri Lanka as Case Study

Copyrights belong to Center for Poverty Analysis, publication in progress with Stability, International Journal for Security and Development Hedging against its potential exclusion from Trans-Pacific Partnership and other mega trading agreements, China embarked on its 21st Century Maritime Silk Road agenda to generate domestic growth through supply chain integration and infrastructure construction in South Asian economies. However, the characteristics of China’s business-led and elite-oriented overseas development policies created policy gaps in high-risk yet strategically important countries. Based on interviews and fieldwork focused on Chinese State-Owned-Enterprises (SOEs) in Sri Lanka and Myanmar, this paper explores how globalization changed the nature of these SOEs from policy executors to both policy makers and market actors in host countries as well as in China. However these changes in nature and influence of key Chinese economic actors is actually not reflected by and is in fact out of step with the 1994 regulation that lays down the principle of non-interventionism in foreign assistance. Such features combine to generate a new paradigm in China’s foreign assistance where businesses, especially SOEs, serve as a bridge for governments in countries like Sri Lanka and Myanmar. In reality, the market-oriented nature of China’s aid executors, the principle of non-interventionism and the domestic economic and political structure in host countries together shape the nature of China’s aid projects in South Asia so that it does not solve the fundamental challenge of globalization, namely the increasing disparity of wealth distribution between labor and capital. This, in turn, implies that Chinese aid is less able to contribute to reducing geopolitical and ethnic tension in high risk regions. In order to redress this imbalance, this paper proposes the inclusion of the private sector and civil society into China’s mainly business-led overseas development paradigm, which can also contribute to augmenting the twin-track OECD-DAC led global aid structure. Key Words: Aid, China, State-Owned-Enterprises, Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness, International Cooperation, Aid for Trade