The Minsk Agreements of 2015: a Forced Step or a Small Achievement of the Ukrainian Side within the Diplomatic Confrontation around the War in the Donbas (original) (raw)

Were the Minsk Agreements doomed to failure? An alternative history

Puti k miru i bezopasnosti, 2022

History does not allow for subjunctive mood but politics do allow. As Russia"s special military operation is underway in Ukraine growing into a major, deadly conflict with unpredictable consequences, it is worthwhile to ask a question: could this conflict be prevented if the Minsk agreements were implemented? The 2014 and 2015 Minsk agreements were aimed at securing a ceasefire between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatists in southeastern Ukraine (Donbass). The rebels from Donetsk and Lugansk drew their courage from the "Crimea precedent"-Moscow"s incorporation of the Crimea "on the basis of voluntary self-determination and historical commonness". The Minsk agreements were a product of the Normandy format-a platform for senior diplomats from France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine, created in June 2014 with the aim of finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The agreements ended large-scale fighting, but not creeping violence that posed the main obstacle for the political settlement of the conflict. The article provides an analysis of the Minsk agreements, including their strengths and weaknesses. Special attention is paid to the EU"s political goals and instruments for the peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. The article also seeks to explain why the Europeans have not been able to take on a more visible and effective role in the implementation of their proclaimed goals.

State of Minsk agreements implementation: An unofficial Ukrainian experts’ opinion

In the joint publication ‘State of Minsk agreements implementation: An unofficial Ukrainian experts’ opinion’, Hanna Shelest, Oleksii Izhak, Maksym Palamarchuk and Oleksiy Haran presented their assessments of the current state of the benchmarks implementation for peace settlement process in Ukraine as agreed by the four ‘Normandy format’ leaders in February 2015. This publication started the ‘Peace to Ukraine’ publication series of the International Renaissance Foundation’s European programme initiative.

Ukraine, Russia and the EU : Breaking the deadlock in the Minsk process

2016

Although the Minsk process brought about a de-escalation of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, not all of its 13 points have been implemented, including a ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weaponry. In the absence of a military option, economic sanctions have become the core instrument of the EU and the US, to respond to Russia’s aggression. At the end of June 2016, when EU Heads of State and Government meet to discuss the extension of sanctions against Russia, they should bear in mind that Russia did not implement the commitments it took upon itself in the framework of the Minsk agreements. Given the persistent deadlock in the Ukraine crisis, the leaders of the EU ought to agree to prolong the sanctions against Russia, push for the renegotiation of the Minsk II agreement and widen the ‘Normandy format’ to include the US and bolster reforms in Ukraine.

The Minsk II Agreement: Implications of a Ceasefire

The Minsk II Agreement, reached on February 12, 2015 between Ukraine and the separatist provinces in the east of the country, did not lead to an immediate ceasefire. The Russian-backed separatists intensified the fighting and succeeded in encircling and defeating the Ukrainian forces in the Debaltseve bulge. Russia is thus working to establish the separatist provinces as a significant actor and position them as leverage against Ukraine’s tilt to the West. Overall, Russia is working to create a “frozen conflict” in Ukraine, which can be heated up if the need arises to protect Russian interests. However, it is still too early to assess the effectiveness of Russia’s tactic, particularly in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. The economic sanctions have not been lifted, and in the meantime, Russia has expanded its competition with the West to other arenas, first and foremost the Middle East. It is stepping up its efforts to rehabilitate its status in the region, eroded in recent years because of the political turmoil in the Arab world.

The Minsk Accords and the Political Weakness of the "Other Ukraine"

Russian Politics, 2023

The article discusses the political contention around the implementation of the Minsk Accords in Ukraine, and why the pluralist nation-building project required for the success of these accords failed. The much-debated cleavage between the more 'pro-Western' and more 'pro-Russian' regions of Ukraine requires that such an alternative be taken seriously. The article argues that neither the change of the balance in favor of the pro-Western electorate in 2014, nor the rise of Ukraine's civic identity in response to Russian aggression can adequately explain the failure to develop a positive, pluralist nation-building project in the context of Minsk. It argues instead that the profound class and political asymmetry between Ukraine's 'Western' and 'Eastern' political camps created different capacities for the universalization of their particular interests, and for effective political mobilization for and against the Minsk Accords in the context of Euromaidan's revolutionary dynamics.

Not So Quiet on the Eastern Front: An Audit of the Minsk Agreements and Ukraine's Reintegration Options

Not So Quiet on the Eastern Front: An Audit of the Minsk Agreements and Ukraine's Reintegration Options, 2016

Written by a team of authors, this paper takes an audit of the Minsk agreements and the situation with re-integrating the occupied territories in eastern Ukraine. It does so by looking at four distinct dimensions: foreign policy, economy, public opinion, and field realities. The last part of this research then builds on the findings in each of these areas and outlines a series of options Ukraine has for addressing the conflict. Mirroring the conversation iŶ UkƌaiŶe͛s Điǀil soĐietLJ aŶd edžpeƌt ĐoŵŵuŶitLJ, the proposed options are subject to intense debate among the authors, and therefore the paper eschews specific recommendations

Prospects for the Completion of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict: An Option that Will Suit All International Actors

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017

At the end of 2016 and early in 2017, Russia carried out a number of actions against Ukraine. The paper describes possible steps of Russia in the development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It is shown that there is the possibility of dividing Ukraine into three parts: a) the Eastern part-under the control of the subordinate Russia of the former president of Ukraine V. Yanukovich; b) the Central one under the control of the existing power of P. Poroshenko; and c) the Western one (which will develop towards integration into Poland, Hungary and Romania). This development of events may well satisfy all international players in the event that Russia takes the initiative to convene the "Second Helsinki Declaration" (Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe). The authorities in Ukraine are losing the opportunity to prevent Russia's actions, but possible actions are described in the article.

Minsk II: a Tactical Compromise with the Strategic Options Being Open

Although the new Minsk agreement of 12 February is more favorable for Russia than the previous one, it indicates the need for compromise of all the negotiation parties. Neither Ukraine nor Russia was satisfied with the document, but both of them had strong reasons to agree on it. Germany and France had their own considerations to actively promote the agreement, even without being confident in its full implementation.