The Impact of Migration on Demographic Processes in the Region of Former Yugoslavia (original) (raw)
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2013
This country report was developed in the framework of SEEMIG – Managing Migration and its Effects in SEE – Transnational Actions towards Evidence-based Strategies. SEEMIG is a strategic project funded by the European Union’s South-East Europe Programme. Project code: SEEMIG - SEE/C/0006/4.1/X The country report was prepared within the SEEMIG activity Conceptual framework for modelling longer term migratory, labour market and human capital processes coordinated by the University of Vienna. Executive Summary SFR Yugoslavia, and thereby Serbia as well, was considerably more liberal in comparison to other European socialist countries of real socialism in the economic and political sense from the 1950s up to the end of the 1980s. Numerous economic and social reforms, especially in period of crisis of mid-1960s, aimed to strengthen the economy of the country. In the late 1980s a program of economic reforms and the Law on Social Capital were adopted, which was the beginning of the transition to the market economy. However, the changes started too late considering the presence of very strong disintegration processes that resulted in the break-up of the SFR Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. The dissolution of the SFR Yugoslavia in 1991 and the ensuing wars and international sanctions imposed to Serbia led to a major decrease in economic activities and to the blocking of the transition process. After the fall of Milošević's regime in 2000 and complete lifting of severe international sanctions, comprehensive political and economic reforms began, as well as intensification of Euro-Atlantic integrations (the stabilisation and Association Agreement was signed in 2008, and visas for Schengen area were abolished in 2009). It is also a period of intensified increase of GDP per capita (the level of 1980 was achieved in 2005) which again started to decrease with the beginning of the global economic crisis in 2009 together with a general trend of increased unemployment. The political and socio-economic situation in the SFR Yugoslavia considerably affected international migration. After the Second World War, the communist regime almost completely suppressed legal international migration. In case of Serbia, the exception were the controlled emigration of the majority of remaining ethnic Germans (beginning of the 1950s) and Turks, namely population of Islamic affiliation (based on Balkan pact from 1954). Political liberalization from the middle of the 1960s was followed by an expansion of international economic migration. The emigration stock continually increased until the figure of 270,000 persons in 1991. Emigration intensified during the 1990s, so the stock rose to 415,000, according to the 2002 Census, while the 2011 Census showed that it decreased by more than 25 per cent in relation to 2002. However, based on available data on main countries of destination, it may be concluded that the emigration stock was considerably higher. During and after the wars in the Western Balkans in the 1990s Serbia became one of the main destinations for refugees (mainly ethnic Serbs) from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia (more than 600,000 according to refugee census from 1996). Right before and during the NATO military campaign in 1999, over 200,000 internally displaced persons from Kosovo and Metohija came to Serbia. The refugees from Croatia are mainly settled in Vojvodina, and the refugees from Bosnia and Herzegovina and internally displaced persons from Kosovo and Metohija in Central Serbia excluding Belgrade. Serbia never had a complex migration policy as an independent country or as a part of Yugoslavia (from 1950 to 2006). The Yugoslav government led a very rigorous migration policy all up to the mid 1960s. Emigration was possible only based on bilateral agreements with other countries. Strict limitations for leaving the country were abolished in the mid 1960s, employment abroad and emigration were completely liberated, and there was an effort to protect the legal rights of Yugoslav citizens “temporarily” working abroad through bilateral international agreements. During the 1970s, the government helped returnees to start their own business in the country, but only as a response to intensive return migrations (after the 1973 Oil Crisis). If we consider the case of Serbia’s joining the EU as a realistic future, we would not expect it could happen before 2021 given the current status of the country in respect to the joining process. In the meanwhile, the negative net migration, roughly estimated to be around 15,000 persons per year in the period 2009-2011, might reduce slightly, owing to the financial crisis in Europe. In addition, the perspective of Serbia’s joining the EU may generate a deferred demand for emigration, to be realized after Serbia’s accession. Serbia’s accession to the EU would surely have an important effect, namely, a large-scale emigration of an explosive but relatively short-lived nature, as it happened with emigration flows of Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians and Slovaks after the 2004 EU enlargement. This is supported by the results of the representative survey from 2010 aimed at estimating potential for emigration from Serbia. However, the post-accession negative net migration from Serbia should be relatively lower, as compared to the situation in the new, post-socialist Member States during the period from 2004 to 2009, mainly due to retiring of the vast majority of the post-war baby boom generations. After the short period of high volume emigration induced by the EU accession, it is reasonable to expect a rapid reduction of negative net migration and, finally, a turn towards positive net migration some 10-15 years later. In that sense, the significance of immigration from third countries will most likely rise over time. However, migration component of the population development is not visible in the political, economic, academic and public discourse of Serbian society. In the strategic documents which the state adopted towards migrations, there has not even been an attempt to find solutions regarding a more complete political response towards international migrations. In the absence of official Serbian statistics, the best source of information on international migration flows from and to Serbia are the data from the destination countries. However, it is probably even impossible to give a reliable estimate of the flows and its changes in time due to political changes in respect to borders and name of the country during the last decade, which particularly affected quality of the destination countries’ migration data by citizenship. Consequently, even in those countries with good registration systems and good statistics on international migration, there are no series of data covering the period prior to 2009 and relating specifically to migrants coming from, or departing to, the territory of the present-day Republic of Serbia excluding Kosovo and Metohija. Furthermore, there is a lack of data for some important destination countries, particularly in respect of return flows. A sufficiently developed consciousness in the political and public discourse on the significance of the migratory phenomenon does not exist in Serbia, nor are the potentials completely recognized of including migrations in development programmes for the country’s revival, including demographic revitalization, and particularly the requirement to comprehensively act in this sphere is underdeveloped. Thus it is necessary to convey the findings of various research regarding migrations to decision makers. The necessity for understanding the emigration drivers should especially be underlined. In that sense, the least what is expected from the state is to strengthen the economy, support health, educational and ecological programmes, develop democratic processes and create an atmosphere of optimism. At the same time, it is important to promote circular movements, accelerate reintegration of returnees and stimulate transfer of knowledge, enhancing the role of Serbian diaspora. Economic and social development of Serbia would not only contribute to a decrease of emigration but would also accelerate immigration into the country. Apart from that, it is important to promote registration of all types of immigrants, define target groups of immigrant population and develop integration measures such as language learning, education or active measures of employing foreigners. At the same time, it is important to create a positive climate towards immigration, develop tolerance and acceptance of immigrants in Serbia.
EMIGRATION, REFUGEES AND ETHNIC CLEANSING: THE DEATH OF YUGOSLAVIA, 1991−1999
2013
EMIGRATION, REFUGEES AND ETHNIC CLEANSING The Death of Yugoslavia, 1991−1999 Publisher & editor The „CRUCIFIED KOSOVO“ Independent Research Centre for Advanced Balkan Studies http://www.crucified-kosovo.eu Cover & design Vladislav B. Sotirović http://www.sotirovic.blog.com © 2013 by Vladislav B. Sotirović & The “CRUCIFIED KOSOVO” – Independent Research Centre for Advanced Balkan Studies All rights reserved 50 exemplars Second edition Printed by Lithuanian University of Educational Sciences Press “Edukologija” T. Ševčenkos g. 31, LT-03111 Vilnius, Lithuania Vilnius, 2013 Paper book ISBN 978-609-408-433-1 Electronic book ISBN 978-609-408-434-8 UDK 325.2 (497.1) So-121 Book web presentation http://balcanica.webs.com http://www.jugoslavologija.eu Contact vladislav-b-sotirovic@crucified-kosovo.eu sotirovic@jugoslavologija.eu Front cover page photo Destroyed Serbian 14th century church in Kosovo by Albanians in 2004 Back cover page photo Serbian refugges from Croatia in August 1999