Evolution of WTO Agriculture Modalities: Survival of the Financially Fattest (original) (raw)
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Doha negotiations on agriculture and future of the WTO multilateral Trade System
QA Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, 2014
The WTO Doha Round of trade negotiations was launched in 2001 and after twelve years of negotiations members seem unable to bring it to a successful conclusion. An attempt to agree on an 'early harvest' of deliverables will be made at the 9 th WTO Ministerial Conference in Bali in December 2013, but the prospects for success appear uncertain. This paper describes the stage that the negotiations have reached in agriculture and summarises the most recent draft modalities for agricultural trade liberalisation. It surveys recent estimates of the value of what is currently on the table. It discusses the reasons for the current impasse in the negotiations and asks whether agricultural trade liberalisation would be better served by abandoning the Doha Round. The paper argues that this would not be the case, and concludes by speculating on the minimum conditions necessary to ensure a conclusion to the Round.
Shifting Sands: Searching for a Compromise in the Wto Negotiations on Agriculture
2004
The WTO negotiations on agriculture remain deadlocked after four years of discussion, and efforts to find a solution at Cancún failed. Analysis shows,that the recent draft Cancún text offers more flexibility than earlier proposals, and such flexibility most likely implies a lower level of ambition overall. However, developing countries are less able to take advantage of this flexibility and their bound tariff will be reduced to levels at or below applied rates. The reduction in levels of intervention and the expiry of the Peace Clause make,it more likely that there will be greater resort in the futureto safeguards and countervailing measures. Analysis of the various proposals using the UNCTAD/FAO Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model (ATPSM) shows ,that most of the benefits from liberalisation accrue to developed countries, which currently have the highest levels of intervention. The group of developing countries, which include both exporters and imports of agricultural product...
The paper explores an important issue in multilateral agricultural trade negotiations, namely the approach taken to reduce tariffs, simulating possible liberalization scenarios. The analysis is based on the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), and on the related version 6.0 database. Scenarios are run on a 2013 baseline, built by taking into account a number of events that have affected (and will further affect) world agricultural markets up to that period, focusing on the effects that are specifically attributable to further trade liberalization in the Doha Round. The policy strategies analyzed are two hypothetical liberalization scenarios in terms of market access and export competition, plus a free agricultural trade benchmark scenario. More specifically, in terms of market access we compare proportional cuts in tariffs with a Swiss-formula approach. Over the range of formula parameters considered here, we find that the impacts are not greatly influenced by the extent to which higher tariffs face bigger cuts. Results indicate that welfare gains could be reaped both by developed and developing countries, but only the possibility of inter-country compensations would allow, at least in principle, an agreement to be reached.
European Review of Agricultural Economics, 2005
Developing countries have both offensive and defensive interests in the Doha Round of WTO trade negotiations. This paper discusses the extent to which these interests have been addressed in the July 2004 Framework Agreement and in the subsequent negotiations. Many of the key demands of developing countries appear to have been accepted in principle in the Agreement, but the lack of specific details on how most of these principles will be operationalised makes it hard to evaluate their real significance. Progress is needed on the development dimension of the negotiations if the Hong Kong Ministerial Council meeting is to succeed.
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This paper evaluates the impacts of various scenarios proposed in the context of the WTO Doha Round agricultural negotiations and a new scenario that considers differential treatment for developing countries. The objective of this paper is to contribute to find the desired consensus among WTO members to facilitate trade and avoid trade wars. We used the Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model (ATPSM) to measure impacts and use the ADAMS model to measure the equity of the various scenarios. We considered seven negotiating scenarios (1) Uruguay Round Agreement, (2) C4 country proposal, (3) EU proposal, (4) USA proposal, (6) our proposal and (7) full liberalization of trade. The results showed that our proposal increases the cotton producers' price by 10.8%, better than the C4 countries proposal (9.0%) and USA proposals (6.1%). Our proposal for agricultural agreements increases the world price (8.1%), the consumer's price (7.4%) and the volume of exports (2.3%), certainly to a lesser degree than that of the C4 countries proposal but more than the USA proposal. In terms of the equity criterion, it is as favorable as the other scenarios compared to the status quo of the Uruguay Round. Our proposal presents the elements for a compromise to conclude the Doha Round, with benefits for developing countries and the introduction of a new mechanism of international solidarity.
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This paper reviews the demands of developing countries in the new round of WTO agricultural negotiations which began in Geneva in March 2000 based on the submissions to the Special Session up to November 2000. Two issues of principle are identified. The first is the developing country demand for equality of outcomes in the negotiations, and not just equality of commitments. Because developed countries made the most use of agricultural support and protection in the past, developing countries argue that equal reduction commitments would still leave a very lop-sided playing-field in which the great bulk of support and protection would continue to be provided by the developed countries. The second issue concerns the role and content of special and differential treatment (SDT) in the current round. The paper notes the need for specific proposals under this heading, but warns that too much flexibility could encourage developing countries down a road which Europe has found leads to costly ...
LOOKING BEYOND THE DOHA NEGOTIATIONS: A POSSIBLE REFORM OF THE WTO AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES RULES
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has treated agricultural subsidies as exceptional. This paper delves into the historical origin of the agricultural subsidies rules of the GATT/WTO. During the era of the GATT 1947, agricultural subsidies were subject to rules for general subsidies with a few exceptions. Under the Uruguay Round Agreement (UR Agreement), subsidies in general were regulated under the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM Agreement), while agricultural subsidies were separately regulated under the Agreement on Agriculture (AA). Institutionalization of the dual track approach under the UR Agreement enabled various policy measures to be developed inconsistently within the twofold regulatory framework. The special status of agricultural products stands out even more in the Peace Clause (Article 13 of the AA), yet its detailed relationship to the SCM Agreement is unanswered in the WTO dispute settlement mechanism. This paper suggests that convergence of the SCM Agreement and the Agreement on Agriculture is eventually required for resolving the structural inconsistency in the GATT/WTO subsidies regime.
Agricultural trade reform under the Doha Agenda: some key issues
The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2008
A successful agreement on agriculture is essential for an overall agreement under the WTO's Doha trade negotiations. Reaching agreement has been difficult, and as of August 2007, much still remains to be done if a successful agreement is to be reached. We consider three of the most controversial areas of the agricultural negotiations: the relative importance of domestic support, market access and export subsidies; three market access issues of sensitive-product exceptions sought for all countries and, the additional special product exceptions sought for developing countries, the proposed special safeguard mechanism; and the domestic support issue. We show that decisions made on reform in these areas will have a critical influence on whether the negotiations achieve their objectives of promoting trade reform and reducing poverty.