Will Emerging Powers Go Nuclear in An Unpredictable World20200102 88679 19wl0j8 (original) (raw)
2019, II. International Giresun Security Symposium Proceedings
The impact of nuclear weapons on security is one of the most controversial topics in security studies. They are considered/presented as illegitimate or inappropriate (if not illegal) instruments of foreign and security policy because they are considered as a threat for the survival of humanity. Therefore, the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime has been established with the objective of total elimination of all types of nuclear weapons. However, the success of NPT regime in realizing its objective has been questionable and this failure can be attributed to the fact that it is based on a categorical distinction between haves (Nuclear States that have the right to possess/keep their nuclear arsenal until total elimination achieved) and have-nots (Non-Nuclear States that has given up their right to possess nuclear weapons). The calculus on the possession of nuclear arsenal as an instrument of deterrence is further complicated by the transformations in the geopolitical conditions and new developments in nuclear technology: international system is becoming more conflictual due to shifts its power structure; the legal and political restrictions on use of military force as an instrument of foreign policy are weakening; the number of threshold states capable of producing nuclear weapons is increasing; negative and positive guarantees provided by NPT to non-nuclear states are weakening; the advent of new types of nuclear weapons is increasing the possibility of their use in tactical engagements; and normative-political restrictions on use of nuclear weapons is becoming obsolete. These changes are particularly influential for the emerging powers that are challenging the existing system of relations and established practices with their increasing capabilities and rising profile within the international system. The aim of this paper is to analyze whether the emerging powers with their aspirations to change the existing system of relations/power in international system will/may choose to develop their own nuclear capabilities, at least, as an instrument for a strategy of deterrence.
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