Regional Economic Performance in China (original) (raw)
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Spatial-temporal dynamics of regional convergence at County level in Jiangsu
Chinese Geographical Science, 2005
The dynamics of regional convergence include spatial and temporal dimensions. Spatial Markov chain can be used to explore how regions evolve by considering both individual regions and their geographic neighbors. Based on per capita GDP data set of 77 counties from 1978 to 2000, this paper attempts to investigate the spatial-temporal dynamics of regional convergence in Jiangsu. First, traditional Markov matrix for five per capita GDP classes is constructed for later comparison. Moreover, each region's spatial lag is derived by averaging all its neighbors' per capita GDP data. Conditioning on per capita GDP class of its spatial lag at the beginning of each year, spatial Markov transition probabilities of each region are calculated accordingly. Quantitatively, for a poor region, the probability of moving upward is 3.3% if it is surrounded by its poor neighbors, and even increases to 18.4% if it is surrounded by its rich neighbors, but it goes down to 6.2% on average if ignoring regional context. For a rich region, the probability of moving down ward is 1.2% if it is surrounded by its rich neighbors, but increases to 3.0% if it is surrounded by its poor neighbors, and averages 1.5% irrespective of regional context. Spatial analysis of regional GDP class transitions indicates those 10 upward moves of both regions and their neighbors are unexceptionally located in the southern Jiangsu, while downward moves of regions or their neighbors are almost in the northern Jiangsu. These empirical results provide a spatial explanation to the "convergence clubs" detected by traditional Markov chain.
Weighted convergence and regional clusters across China
Papers in Regional Science, 2011
We analyse per capita GDP convergence among 28 Chinese provinces between 1952 and 2005 using the distribution dynamics approach. Compared with previous studies, we provide a more complete view by including some additional information such as the asymptotic half life of convergence, mobility indices and the continuous version of the ergodic distributions. In addition, we also extend the analysis to evaluate whether patterns could differ if weighted by either the population living in each province or their economic sizes, together with the existence and magnitude of spatial spillovers. The unweighted, unconditional analysis corroborates and supplements previous findings, especially those indicating that convergence patterns differ strongly under either pre-or post-reform trends. Both the weighted and space-conditioned analyses indicate that convergence could be much faster when these factors are introduced in the analysis. Implications are especially relevant when weighting by population, since results indicate that the number of people escaping from relative poverty would be much higher than the figure predicted by the unweighted analysis.
Convergence of China's regional incomes
China Economic Review, 2001
This paper employs time series techniques, with or without a structural break, to investigate the question of China's regional per capita income convergence. Our results suggest that China's regions, especially the eastern and the western regions, have converged to their own specific steady states over the past 40 years. The Gini coefficient, the ratio of per capita income between regions, and the coefficient of variation confirm our findings. We also identify the big shocks on the relative regional per capita income by allowing a time break.
New evidence on the role of regional clusters and convergence in China (1952–2008)
China Economic Review, 2012
A new panel method is applied to the case of Chinese provinces to analyze the existence of club convergence in terms of per capita income, labor productivity, capital intensity, and total factor productivity from 1952 to 2008. The advantage of this approach is that it takes into account the heterogeneity of Chinese regions in a nonlinear time-varying framework, where more attention is paid to the spatial dimension. This time-varying approach outperforms other methods used in the relevant literature for an economy in transition, such as China, that has undergone a significant transformation over the period under consideration. Our results indicate that Chinese regions have converged into clubs. However, it is observed that Heilongjiang is diverging in terms of labor productivity and capital intensity, while Liaoning and Guizhou display similar patterns in terms of labor productivity, and Shanxi and Hebei in terms of capital intensity. These results indicate that specific economic packages need to be implemented in the clusters that were identified, with special attention to those regions that show a divergence behavior, in order to guarantee the sustainability and equality of regional growth.
A Spatial Investigation of σ-Convergence in China
2006
Using techniques of spatial econometrics, this paper investigates σ-convergence of provincial real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in China. The empirical evidence concludes that spatial dependence across regions is strong enough to distort the traditional measure of σ-convergence. This study focuses on the variation of per capita GDP that is dependent on the development processes of neighboring provinces and cities. This refinement of the conditional σ-convergence model specification allows for analysis of spatial dependence in the mean and variance. The corrected measure of σ-convergence in China indicates a lower level of dispersion in the economic development process. This implies a smaller divergence in real per capita GDP, although convergence across regions is still a challenging goal to achieve in the 2000s. </span></td></tr>
Economic Reform, Growth and Convergence in China
The Econometrics Journal, 2008
In this paper, we propose a new concept of convergence which is based on the metric entropy measure recently proposed by Granger et al. (2004) to investigate economic convergence in China. This entropy measure compares whole distributions of growth rates across individual provinces. Separately, based on this same entropy measure, we also implement cluster analysis to identify any convergence clubs. Our four main conclusions are: (1) while we certainly reject the null hypothesis that there exists a nationwide convergence, we do …nd that there exist convergence clubs for both the pre-and post-reform periods, (2) we …nd a number of very small convergence clubs. In particular, there are seven and …ve convergence clubs for the pre-and post-reform periods, respectively. (3) in comparing the number and size of convergence clubs for both the pre-and post-reform periods, it could be argued that the extent of convergence is more prevalent during the post-reform period than during the pre-reform period, (4) convergence groups cannot be characterized by such unique features as region or the extent of policy preference level that are commonly used in the literature.
Regional Development Studies, 2003
Since late 1970s scholars have done much research on it, but conclusions from different scholars may differ in many ways. It is mainly due to different analytic approaches, perspectives, spatial units, statistical indicators and different periods for studies. On the basis of previous analyses and findings, we have done some further quantitative computation and empirical study, and revealed the inter-provincial disparity and regional disparity of economic development and their evolution trends from 1952—2000. The main conclusions are: ① Regional disparity in economic development in China, including the inter-provincial disparity, inter-regional disparity and intra-regional disparity, has existed for years. ② Gini coefficient and Theil coefficient have revealed a similar dynamic trend for comparative disparity in economic development between provinces in China. From 1952 to 1978, except for the "Great Leap Forward" period, comparative disparity basically assumes a upward trend and it assumed a slowly downward trend from 1979 to1990. Afterwards from 1991 to 2000 the disparity assumed a slowly upward trend again. In other words, the strategy of regional balanced development before the reform and opening up did not bring us a reduction in comparative disparity of regional economic development, nor did the lopsided development strategy implemented since then bring us an expansion of comparative disparity of regional economic development in China. ③ A comparison between Shanghai and Guizhou shows that absolute inter-provincial disparity has been quite big for years. The disparity of economic development between the two provinces expanded till 1978 and reduced after the reform and opening up. Since 1990 the disparity began to expand for the second times with a slight drop in 1998. ④ The R/S analysis result tell us that In the "Great Cultural Revolution" period, i.e. 1966-1978, the Hurst exponent H=0.504≈0.5, indicates that in this period the evolution of comparative inter-provincial disparity of economic development showed a random characteristic, and In the other period, i.e. 1952-1965, 1979-1990 and 1991-2000, the Hurst exponent H>0.5 indicates that in this period the evolution of the comparative inter-provincial disparity of economic development in China has a long-enduring characteristic.
Quantitative Analysis of Regional Economic Development Disparity in China from 1952 to 2000
Since late 1970s scholars have done much research on it, but conclusions from different scholars may differ in many ways. It is mainly due to different analytic approaches, perspectives, spatial units, statistical indicators and different periods for studies. On the basis of previous analyses and findings, we have done some further quantitative computation and empirical study, and revealed the inter-provincial disparity and regional disparity of economic development and their evolution trends from 1952—2000. The main conclusions are: ① Regional disparity in economic development in China, including the inter-provincial disparity, inter-regional disparity and intra-regional disparity, has existed for years. ② Gini coefficient and Theil coefficient have revealed a similar dynamic trend for comparative disparity in economic development between provinces in China. From 1952 to 1978, except for the "Great Leap Forward" period, comparative disparity basically assumes a upward tre...
Spatial Convergence in China: 1952-99
2006
The purpose of this paper is to examine the convergence process in China by taking into account the spatial interaction between factors. The paper shows that there has been a dramatic increase in the spatial dependence of China's per capita GDP in the last 20 years. The consequence of space plays an important role, which is reflected in the influence of a neighbour's condition on the mobility of a province's income distribution from one category to another. The dynamics of the process showed evidence that China's distribution has gone from one of convergence to stratification, and from stratification to polarization.