Macroeconomic Variables, the Oil, and the Agricultural Sectors in Nigeria (original) (raw)
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Science Archive, 2022
The overdependence on crude oil has produced susceptivity to every part of the Nigerian Gross Domestic Growth (GDP) and there was the need to examine the effect of crude oil on the economy of Nigeria. This study, therefore, investigates the long-run effect between oil revenue, oil price volatility, and economic growth in Nigeria. The data on oil revenue, non-oil revenue, oil price volatility, and per-capita income from the year 2006to 2020 extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin was applied in this research work. The research applied Descriptive Statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root test, Johansen cointegration, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration statistical method to examine the long-run effects of crude oil production on Nigeria's economy. It was discovered from our result that; oil revenue plays a remarkable role in Nigeria's economy by its advancement of the country's GDP. Furthermore, Nigeria has regulated oil revenue to accomplish economic growth in numerous ways. The study recommended that the Nigerian Government should diversify its export supply through downstream production and encouragement of more private sector participation.
Journal of Agripreneurship and Sustainable Development
The study examined empirically the asymmetric relationship between crude oil price shocks and agricultural productivity in Nigeria (1987-2020) from the perspectives of non-linear auto regressive distributed lag (NARDL) and granger causality analysis. The study used an annual time series data from the World development indicators (WDI) data bank for the period of 1987-2020. The newly introduced non-linear auto-regressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach was applied in the model specification and data analysis for the study. The results of the NARDL in both short and long run revealed that decrease in crude oil prices has a negative and significant (P≤0.0011) impact on agricultural productivity in Nigeria and vice versa. The results of the granger causality test revealed a unidirectional causality from crude oil prices to agricultural productivity with evidence from the current decline of global crude oil prices from December 2019 to April 2020 which is in line with the growth hypothe...
This study examines the effect of crude oil price on agricultural productivity in Nigeria between 1981 and 2010. Agricultural GDP (proxy as agricultural productivity) was specified as a function of factors such as exchange rate, crude oil price, capital, labour, land and fertilizer. Quantitative estimates, based on Augmented-Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, co-integration and error correction specification, indicate that the exchange rate, capital, labour and trend are the major determinants of agricultural productivity in the long-run, while price of crude oil is the most important determinant of agricultural productivity in the shortrun. The results further shows that the error correction mechanism (ECM) indicated a feedback of about 112.5% of the previous year's disequilibrium from long-run domestic agricultural production. It is concluded that the rapid rise in crude oil prices exerted an upwards pressure on food prices; as fertilizer prices nearly tripled and transport costs doubled over a two year period. Diversification of the country's economy, sustained investment in the agricultural sector and the devaluation of the currency would boost agricultural productivity in the country.
Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting
The interaction among macroeconomic indicators causes shock among themselves and by extension shocks on other macroeconomic variables including agricultural performance. This study investigated agricultural performance amidst macroeconomic instability in Nigeria. Data on the study variables spanning from first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2017 was sourced from the Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Diagnostic checks revealed that the variables were integrated of order I(0) and I(1) hence the used of the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged model The cointegration bounds test indicated a long run cointegration consequently the ECM which results showed a correct sign, significant effect and 40.1% speed of adjustment. Empirical, results also indicated that; 91.3% variation in agricultural sector performance was explained by the adopted explanatory variables of the parsimonious model (R2 =0.913). Particularly, changes in the fourth lag of agricultural sector ...
This research work analyzed the Nigeria economic growth nexus betweenAgricultural Output and Oil Industry Output from 1986 to 2020. However, the data gathered was presented and analyzed through E-view. The study makes use of analytical statistics for the analysis of the data collected. The Vector Autoregressive model (VAR), ADF and very other diagnostic Tests were employed in order for certainty A reliable results and to guard against obtaining spurious results. Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) in order to forecast in to future behavior of the variables, furthermore, variance decomposition technic was employed to further empirically analyzed the future impact of the variable. The result of VAR shows that AGOUT strongly predict RGDP with 5.37524 tstatistic value and Null hypothesis H 1 is rejected and Alternative hypothesis is Accepted. Considering the second hypothesis H 2 with the result from VAR, it is obvious that Agricultural output does impact Nigeria economy better than oil industry output. Therefore, H 2 is rejected and Alternative hypothesis is accepted. More so, the result of variance decomposition further justified the result of VAR which shows that, RGDP is more responsive to AGOUT both is the short-run and at the long-run than the OIOUT. However, the study recommends that, the government in her capacity should revert the current trade-off between Agriculture and Oil sectors in favour of Agricultural sector by increasing the budgeting allocation for Agricultural sector, by strengthening the security of the country especially in the rural areas where farmers lives. And finally, the policy makers should make policies that will enhance value additions in Agricultural sector in the country.
EFFECT OF OIL AND AGRICULTURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA
The study examines the interaction and feedback mechanism between agricultural and oil sectors with output in Nigeria from 1981 to 2012, using vector auto regression (VAR) methodology. Output response to OIL revenue innovation was only additive in the shortest. Output response to agriculture output exhibited positive effect of economic development through investing in the agricultural sector even from the gains from the oil sector in as oil shock showed positive response in the agricultural sector in Nigeria. Conclusively, the three economic variables are vital economic mix for economic development in Nigeria and policies and planning be optimized for economic progress.
OIL SECTOR PERFORMANCE AND NIGERIAN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting, 2020
Nigeria as an oil exporting mono-economy is vulnerable to world oil prices fluctuations. About10 percent of GDP and 86 percent of the government's export revenues come from the oil and gas sector. The study assessed the impact of the Nigerian oil sector performance on the macroeconomic variables between 1980 and 2017 in light of this overdependence. It carried out pre-estimation tests namely descriptive statistics in order to understand the nature of the variables. The Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillip Perron tests were also deployed to determine stationarity level of the variables. The long-run co-integration test was conducted after determining the optimal lag. The Error Correction model technique was applied to determine the possible existence of short-run relationship among the variables. The Toda Yamamoto modified Wald's test was employed in order to know the direction of causality. The Impulse Response Function together with other post-estimation tests was also used. The result showed a uni-causality direction from oil revenue in the direction of all the macroeconomic variables. It also revealed significant positive long run relationship between the oil sector and both GDP and unemployment. The other variables were however inversely associated. The study recommended that the government of Nigeria take diversification more seriously, besides investing in refinery acquisition and management. JEL Classification: E24, E43, E60, E62, F31
Oil Price Shock and Agricultural Productivity: Stylised Evidence in Nigeria
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
Oil sector is a dominant sector, as it is the largest exported commodity in Nigeria. However, evidences have shown that Nigeria as an oil dependent country faces frequent oil price fluctuations that have pose greater challenge on agriculture sector in Nigeria, hence affecting agricultural productivity. This necessitates the need to investigate the effect of oil price shocks on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. This study adopted the Hodrick Prescott data filtering approach to check for the fluctuation of oil price. The result revealed fluctuation in Nigeria oil price from 2018 up until recently. Also, the Structural Vector Autoregression and normalized equation was used to establish the long-run equation. Evidence from the long-run relationship showed that agricultural productivity has a negative relationship with oil price and real exchange rate. Consumer price index, and oil production has as positive relationship with agricultural productivity. Variation in oil price affects ...
This study investigates the effect of oil revenue and non-oil revenue on agricultural output in Nigeria. The study employs regression analysis using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) to examine agricultural output and oil revenue (LGOILR) as well as non-oil revenue (LGNOILR). The regression analysis reveals that oil revenue has a statistically significant positive impact on agricultural output, indicating that increases in oil revenue are associated with corresponding increases in agricultural productivity. However, non-oil revenue does not exhibit a significant direct effect on agricultural output. The study also confirms the presence of stationarity in the variables after first differencing and the absence of heteroskedasticity in the residuals. Based on the findings, policymakers are to prioritize strategies that promote stability and growth in the oil sector while effectively channeling benefits from oil revenue to support agricultural development. Investments in agricultural infrastructure, research, extension services, and market access are recommended to enhance productivity and resilience in the agricultural sector.
The study had set forth to explore the intertwining relationship that exist between oil revenue shock, non-oil export and industrial output in Nigeria. In achieving this objective the study utilized data spanning the period 1970-2010. This period captured the major era of regime shift (changes in governance) and policy administration in Nigeria. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and cointegration technique were used to examine the long run relationship, while the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to analyze the short-run behavior of the variables. The Johansen cointegration analysis suggests that a long run behavior exist between oil revenue shock, non-oil export, policy/regime shift and industrial output in Nigeria. The short-run result showed that the speed at which industrial output will converge towards long-run equilibrium after experiencing shock from oil revenue is very slow. It therefore would take a very slow process for industrial output to recover from shock arising from variation in oil revenue. The long run result shows that oil revenue shock and policy/regime shift had negative impact on industrial output and non-oil export. The impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis suggest that the major drivers of industrial development in Nigeria are non-oil export, regime shift and oil revenue. Thus innovations from these variables impact severely on industrial growth in Nigeria. The study therefore suggest among other things that the panacea to industrial growth in Nigeria rest on diversifying the economy away from crude oil export and ensuring a stable government in Nigeria that will endure long enough to sustain industrial and other economic policies.