The domestic spillover in Iran following the Qasem Soleimani affair (original) (raw)
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Iran’s Domestic Woes in Light of U.S. Pressure | The Washington Institute
2021
ven without the recent signing of a normalization deal between the UAE, Israel, and Bahrain, the dynamics of the contentious relationship between the United States and Iran are growing more severe, and Iran is facing significant challenges to its strategic success in the region. The country is still adjusting in the wake of the United States’ assassination of Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani early this year, which represents one of the biggest security challenges facing Iran in recent times. The scale of the theater of strategic operations in which Soleimani moved, the volume of military dossiers he oversaw, and the number of armed groups and militias he directed indicate his past importance to Iranian strategic efforts. Soleimani has therefore left Ismail Qaani (nicknamed General al-Shami), the new head of the Quds Force, with big shoes to fill.
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This issue covers the situation of Iran after the killing of general Soleimani and is a double interview with Jakub Gajda, an expert with the Casimir Pulaski foundation and Łukasz Przybyszewski, an expert of the Asia Research Centre. The two analysts answered questions on: (1) How they think the internal situation of Iran after general Soleimani's killing will change, what significant economic and political processes will take place in Iran in the near future; (2) Is the US' maximum pressure policy toward Iran working, (3) What advatanges does Iran possess in the regional proxy war, and (4) Why is Iran's civilian nuclear programme so controversial.
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Crown Conversations, No. 1, 2020
In the early hours of January 3, 2020, a U.S. Air Force drone targeted and killed General Qasim Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, along with nine other people, including Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a key leader in and the former deputy head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces. Four days later, Iran responded with a barrage of ballistic missiles on Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops, which resulted in no deaths but was seen as a sign of Iran’s ability to attack U.S. forces directly. Both the escalation of hostilities between the two countries and its seeming de- escalation took the international community by surprise. Largely lost in the midst of all this were the ongoing protests in Iraq, the country in which the drone strike occurred; Lebanon, where Hizbullah leader Hasan Nasrallah immediately threatened retaliation for Soleimani’s death; and Iran, which was still reeling from the aftermath of bloody protests in November 2019. This Crown Conversation aims to shed light on how the events of January 3 and their aftermath have affected the region beyond the headlines and to emphasize linkages between regional actors and developments. We asked three members of the Crown Center research team—Maryam Alemzadeh, Harold Grinspoon Junior Research Fellow; David Siddhartha Patel, Associate Director for Research; and Kelly Stedem, PhD Candidate in Politics—to discuss the short- and medium-term effects of the Soleimani killing on domestic politics in Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon with a focus on issues that have slipped through the U.S. media’s attention.
Iran -Us Conflict 2020: Live Escalation on Trump Killing of Soleimani in Iraq
2021
This dissertation is engaging and contributes to the contemporary research on the distinguished transformations of American Iranian relations in the post-Soleimani era. It is represented dangerous and unprecedented escalation steps. The USA airstrike killing of Iran’s Qassem Soleimani led the principal causal of this international tension between the two countries. In light of this, the authors show how this incident came about and why it is relevant to be given scholarly attention. Equally important to consider is the use a liberal and realistic perspective in the unpacking of an international incident that almost brought the world in front of a devastating war. The study is grounded on the reasons which led the US to kill the Iranian top general (Qasem Soleimani). And why the Iranian leadership answer on this killing in the way they did? In this study, I used the previous studies to understand the roots and development of Iranian American relations before and after the Khomeini re...
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The political dynamics of the US-Iran relationship have kept the two states always on the brink of the eruption of a major conflict. The targeted assassination of Major General Qassem Suleimani, one of the most consequential figures in Iranian military history, took the world to the brink of a global conflict on January 3, 2020. Fortunately, however, the subsequent events did not escalate to declared or undeclared war. This article provides a theoretical analysis of the conflict following the assassination of Major Suleimani to explain why and how war was avoided in this context. The analysis based on contemporary context, regional power dynamics, and relevant conditions illustrates how de-escalation of conflict was possible and argues why, in light of existing theories, there is hardly any possibility of a manifest war between the US and Iran in the near future despite prevailing in an alternate and latent form.
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The election crisis that unfolded after June 12, 2009 has exposed the vulnerability of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), a vulnerability that has been driving its ongoing confrontation with the U.S. and Europe, for instance on the question of acquiring nuclear technology and its weapons applications. While the prior U.S. administration under Bush had called for "regime change" in Iran, President Obama has been more conciliatory, offering direct negotiations with Tehran. This opening met with ambivalence from the Islamic Republic establishment; some favored, while others opposed, accepting this olive branch offered by the newly-elected American president. Like the recent coup in Honduras, the dispute in Iran has been conditioned, on both sides, by the "regime change" that has taken place in the United States. A certain testing of possibilities in the post-Bush II world order is being mounted by allies and opponents alike. One dangerous aspect of the mounting cri...
Removal of a General – The Rebirth of a Latent Conflict Between Two Sovereign States: USA and Iran
Land Forces Academy Review, 2020
Generally speaking, the relations between different states of the world, but especially between the states that represent world powers or have a certain type of arsenal, are able to influence the stability and the state of calmness from a certain region of the world, but also the notion of peace at the globally level. The 2020 year began with such a situation, in the sense that United States of America and Iran, which have been for a long period in relations not among the most well, have arrived at a moment that could represent, to a very large extent, the starting point of a conflict that will enter in the world history. The elimination of a very important Iranian general by US troops in early January 2020, by a surprise attack amonk Iraqian teritory, markedly aggravated relations between the United States of America and Iran, but also between the great world power and Iraq or other major global players who have harshly criticized the US attack.
Iran at a Crossroads (MES Insights v1i1 January 2010)
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The Islamic Republic of Iran is at a crossroad. 2009 closed with the Islamic Republic regime witnessing the most fundamental challenges to its rule over Iran. As a result both the regime in power and the country of Iran begin the year 2010 with more uncertainty than at any other time in the thirty years since the triumph of the Islamic revolution. The uncertainty in Iran not only translates into insecurity for the regime, but also for the region and beyond, as the regime flexes its muscles to demonstrate relevance and authority. This presents a challenging security environment. Chief among the growing security challenges are Tehran’s continued defiance in negotiations over its nuclear program, and the weakening of the chains of commands which hitherto had kept Tehran from stepping beyond certain red lines in projecting its influence beyond its borders. Which way is Iran heading?........(Read on)............