China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Duterte Administration’s Appeasement Policy: Examining the Connection Between the Two National Strategies (original) (raw)

Explaining the Duterte Administration's Appeasement Policy on China: The Power of Fear

Asian Affairs: An American Review, 2019

This article examines the reason behind the dramatic shift in Philippine foreign policy under the Duterte Administration. His predecessor, president Benigno Aquino, vigorously challenged China’s expansive territorial claim in the South China Sea throughout his six-year term. However, president Rodrigo Duterte’s actions and pronouncements are undoing the former president’s geopolitical agenda of balancing China’s expansion in the disputed waters. He distances the Philippines from the United States, its long-standing treaty ally, and gravitates toward China. This stance aims to earn goodwill with China so that the Philippines can avail itself of enormous aids and loans from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This stemmed from this administration’s fear that the Philippines would not benefit from China’s emergence as an economic power. Nevertheless, by appeasing an expansionist power, the Philippines becomes complicit to China’s long-term strategy of maritime expansion to push the United States out of East Asia. In conclusion, the article warns that the Duterte Administration might end up losing the country’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea and the confidence and trust of its allies and security partners. This administration might also leave the public coffers empty and dry because of China’s reneging on its commitment to fund the Philippines’ massive infrastructure-building program, labeled “Build, Build, and Build.”

The Shift and Continuity of the Philippines� Foreign Policy Under Rodrigo Duterte on the South China Sea Issue

Jurnal Dinamika Global, 2021

The South China Sea (SCS) has become the largest and the crucial Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOCs) not only for Southeast Asia but also for the world. As one of the claimants of the South China Sea, Philippines were always and will always be trying to protect its national interests in the disputed waterways as part of its national territory. This article discusses about the shift and continuity of the Philippines� foreign policy on the South China Sea issue. It explicates the shift and continuity of Philippines foreign policy under Rodrigo Duterte to the South China Sea. A more focus elaboration will be devoted on how the Philippines implemented its foreign policy to deal with China in the South China Sea dispute.It argues that Duterte foreign policy to this delicate issue is always based on the strategic dynamic of its �two-level game� (domestic and international political stimuli) to its national interests.

The Duterte Administration’s Foreign Policy: Unravelling the Aquino Administration’s Balancing Agenda on an Emergent China

Abstract: From 2010 to 2016, then-President Benigno Aquino balanced China’s expansive maritime claim in the South China Sea. President Aquino challenged China by shifting the AFP’s focus from domestic security to territorial defence, bolstering closer Philippine–US security relations, acquiring American military equipment, seeking from Washington an explicit security guarantee under the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty (MDT), and promoting a strategic partnership with Japan. However, the Duterte administration is unravelling its predecessor’s balancing agenda by distancing itself from the United States and gravitating closer to China, despite the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) July 12 2016 award to the Philippines. President Duterte’s foreign policy is directed at reviving the equi-balancing policy on China, in contrast to then-President Aquino’s balancing strategy. This is best exemplified by his efforts to harness China for several major infrastructure and investments projects in the Philippines and to resort to bilateral negotiations with Beijing. The present article argues that instead of relying on the US, President Duterte is fostering closer security partnership with Japan to equi-balance an emergent China.  Manuscript received 7 October2016; accepted 2 January 2017

Duterte’s Pivot to China, and Prospects for Settling the South China Sea Disputes

Contexto Internacional

This article proposes a theoretical framework for understanding Filipino president Rodrigo Duterte’s celebrated ‘pivot to China.’ It begins by discussing the model of asymmetric relations as a suitable framework for understanding relations between highly unequal states, and the concept of dual structural asymmetry as a means of theorising the triangular relations among the Philippines, the USA and China since the end of the Cold War. Next, it presents various economic and political indicators of the shift in Filipino foreign policy under Duterte. It goes on to propose a theoretical model for identifying the linkages between elements of political economy and international security from the perspective of Brantly Womack’s theory of asymmetry. Lastly, it presents three scenarios for resolving the territorial dispute in the South China Sea (SCS) between the Philippines and China: two with maximum gains for one country only, and a third with an acceptable result for both countries as a p...

The Gradual Softening of the Philippines' Hedging Strategy towards China under President Duterte

Vestnik NSU, 2021

Under President Rodrigo Duterte, in office since 2016, the Philippines' traditional hedging strategy towards China gradually softens. Due to Chinese investments as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) the relations have become closer, while security relations with the United States remain strained. The ongoing territorial dispute in the South China Sea and the negative perceptions of the Philippine citizens on China, however, serve as a corrective for strong bandwagoning with China.

Pivot Toward China: A Critical Analysis of the Philippines' Policy Shift on the South China Sea Disputes

Pivot Toward China: A Critical Analysis of the Philippines’ Policy Shift on the South China Sea Disputes, 2019

This article investigates the Philippines’ puzzling reversal of its position against China following its victory in the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on maritime claims in the South China Sea. Instead of asserting its de jure sovereign rights, which were reaffirmed by the PCA’s decision, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte instead opted to build stronger relations with China. Proposing a burden-sharing analytical approach, the article argues that the Philippines is using China as leverage in its alliance with the United States. By exploiting the “China Card” and downplaying the arbitration case, the Philippines has extracted concessions from Beijing and Washington. In capitalizing on the Sino-American rivalry, Manila has reaffirmed its strategic value within the U.S.‒Philippines alliance while benefitting more visibly from Chinese foreign aid and investment pledges. However, the Philippines’ policy posture vis-à-vis China reflects short-term diplomatic and economic tactics rather than an enduring strategic reorientation away from the United States.

Duterte's Pivot to China, and Prospects for Settling the South China Sea Disputes Duterte's Pivot to China, and Prospects for Settling the South China Sea Disputes

This article proposes a theoretical framework for understanding Filipino president Ro-drigo Duterte's celebrated 'pivot to China. ' It begins by discussing the model of asymmetric relations as a suitable framework for understanding relations between highly unequal states, and the concept of dual structural asymmetry as a means of theorising the triangular relations among the Philip-pines, the USA and China since the end of the Cold War. Next, it presents various economic and political indicators of the shift in Filipino foreign policy under Duterte. It goes on to propose a theoretical model for identifying the linkages between elements of political economy and international security from the perspective of Brantly Womack's theory of asymmetry. Lastly, it presents three scenarios for resolving the territorial dispute in the South China Sea (SCS) between the Philippines and China: two with maximum gains for one country only, and a third with an acceptable result for both countries as a product of mutual concessions.

Realigning a Nation: Understanding Duterte’s Foreign Policy Shift

Conflict, Justice, Decolonization: Critical Studies on Inter-Asian Societies, 2019

Recent developments between China and the Philippines paint a rosy picture of cooperation that is closer than ever, with Philippine President Duterte’s move towards the emerging regional power that postures a foreign policy shift for many is too close for comfort. This article argues that the emergence of China as a political and economic hegemon through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the ambiguous position of the U.S. in the territorial dispute in Southeast Asia, have influenced the Duterte administration to shift its stance towards a neighbor that seems closer to home. This relationship will be explained through a historical approach that could provide insights as to the possibilities of this connection between the two countries.

How Indo-Pacific Geopolitics Affects Foreign Policy: The Case of the Philippines, 2010-2017

How Indo-Pacific Geopolitics Affects Foreign Policy: The Case of the Philippines, 2010-2017, 2018

This article examines how two Philippine presidents took into account the ongoing geo-strategic competition between the U.S. and China. At the start of his sixyear term, President Benigno Aquino III became concerned that China’s maritime expansion threatened the Philippines’ territorial rights over its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea. He then pursued a balancing policy towards China’s maritime expansion into this area. Aquino pursued this policy as a reaction to China’s naval expansion but also considered the Obama Administration’s strategic rebalancing to Asia. President Rodrigo Duterte, however, is unraveling his predecessor’s geopolitical agenda in the South China Sea. Duterte has pursued an appeasement policy on China to take advantage of Beijing’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. Strategically, President Duterte has shown a sensitivity to Chinese security interests. In conclusion, both Filipino presidents, in crafting their respective foreign policies, have taken into account the geopolitical developments in the Indo-Pacific region in terms of the prospect of losing either territorial rights or economic gains. Keywords Philippine