COVID-19 pandemic and world trade: Some analytical notes (original) (raw)

The globalization of COVID-19 pandemic is en route to produce severe economic impacts worldwide through distortions in global trade and supply chain. The globalized production and supply chain shocks originating from China generate substantial threat to world trade. The aim of this paper is to provide an early broad-based understanding of the likely trade implications of the pandemic. The paper begins with a standard trade analysis framework to explain the implications for world trade. The paper then presents a theoretical mapping showing the likely progression and span of world trade implications and reviews evidence available so far in the context of the mapping. The paper also presents a separate assessment on the likely implications particularly for trade between China and the rest of the world; followed by some key policy considerations. The paper concludes that the pandemic is likely to not only introduce new patterns of world trade but also affect trade relations, competition, and globalization. Given the scarcity of scholarly work on COVID-19's trade implications, the paper contributes by offering a novel broad-based understanding, which could serve as a basis for advanced analysis. Assessments presented could help stakeholders in preparing for a new world order of international trade.