The Influence Change of Private Car Ownership on Patterns of Mode Choice in Baghdad city The Influence Change of Private Car Ownership on Patterns of Mode Choice in Baghdad city (original) (raw)
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The Influence Change of Private Car Ownership on Patterns of Mode Choice in Baghdad city
IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering
The growth rate of vehicle ownership in Baghdad has increased since 2003. For the analysis of adverse effects of car ownership on transport mode choice, the comparison between the patterns of mode choices in the past with current situation was studied. The transport mode choice was calibrated using a Logit model; it combines different characteristics of the alternatives and individual socioeconomic variables in a meaningful way to calculate a utility value. The model requires data of zones, choice data of travelling mode and the selected mode attributes. Trans Cad was used to calibrate the utility functions, MNL analysis in Trans Cad is used to develop the model. The travelling modes used in the study area are private mode (car) and public mode (bus). The level of service variables (In-vehicle travel time, cost) and socioeconomic variables (auto ownership, income) are used. After calibration of the split model, the process of validation is achieved by comparing field measured modal split of traffic volumes with estimated split results of the model. The results show that a higher share of public transport in the past, while in 2014, it appears that the share of auto is higher. Through these results, it finds that public transport must be given the utmost importance in order to provide a sustainable environment in the region.
Preferences for vehicle ownership and mode choice for commuting trips in Cordoba city
2013
This study presents a nested logit model integrating mode choice decisions for commuting trips, private vehicle ownership and the preferences for car and motorcycle buying as a response to changes in transport modes level of services. The estimation results confirm the hypothesis of interdependence between urban travel mode choice for commuting based on transport modes service levels and the car and motorcycle ownership decision. A scenario analysis and the calculation of demand elasticities allowed us to determine the sensitivity of transport mode use and private vehicle buying preferences to changes in urban travel conditions. Particularly, there would be significant sensitivity of car buying preferences to parking costs and also worse bus travel times could encourage car and motorcycle buying decisions in the short run aggravating the current traffic congestion conditions at rush hours. Also, there is scope for further research, evaluation and implementation of policies such as "guided buses" or "exclusive lanes for transit services" in order to cope with urban traffic congestion promoting the use of public transport alternatives.
Transportation mode choice binary logit model: a case study for Johor Bahru city
IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 2019
The mode choice stage in transportation planning is the analysis process to estimate the number or percentage of trips performed by each mode of transport. In practice, the number of trips is used to estimate the demand for each mode of transport. Such information is important for planning and designing transportation facilities in an urban area. A mathematical model of individuals’ mode choice is usually required in such an analysis. This paper discusses the result of a study carried out to evaluate the attributes that influence the mode choice of transport in Johor Bahru city by interviewing the individuals living for more than one year in the study area. The investigation conducted through one of attitudinal survey techniques known as stated preference survey. Stated preference survey conducted on a random sample of 384 respondents. Investigated attributes have been identified in analysis stage by applying binary logistic regression analysis procedure before deriving binary logit...
Urban Science
There are significant deviations in travel mode choice drivers between developed and developing countries. This study investigates the determinants of car ownership and public transit ridership in Iran. Using survey data from 800 respondents, the determinants of travel behaviour of Kerman residents were investigated, based on gender, age, household size, car ownership, frequency of public transport ridership, number of working days per week, number of shopping activities in the neighbourhood per week, number of entertainment activities in the neighbourhood per week, and number of shopping activities in the city. Two multivariate models were estimated using the OLS and WLS methods. Our findings suggested that owning a car tends to increase as age, household size, number of working days and number of shopping days in the city decreases. An increase in the number of entertainment days in the neighbourhood raised the probability of car ownership while shopping in the neighbourhood did n...
Examining the Effects of Transport Policy on Modal Shift from Private Car to Public Bus
Procedia Engineering
Private vehicles have become the most common mode of daily travel. This is one effect of the poor accessibility of public transportation. This paper attempts to use a study based on a survey of commuters in order to devise ways of encouraging the use of public transportation. Two different public transport policies were examined: (i) once-an-hour direct bus service from home to university (policy 1), and (ii) park-and-ride facilities (policy 2). Binary logistics models are proposed with the intention of comparing the utility of travel modes between private cars and public buses. These models are also used to identify the factors which have the potential to encourage car users to switch from travelling by cars to public buses. Explanatory factors considered in all three models include: occupation, trip length, travel time, trip frequency, gender, age and possession of a license. We began from the basic scenario by focusing on existing services without considering any new policy. The consequences of two new policies were then analysed in order to identify those factors which influence the choice of travel mode and which can predict the probability of behavioural change. All the proposed logistics models are evaluated using real-world data (with 4410 samples) from a survey carried out at the University of Wollongong (UOW), Australia. Stated preference (SP) questionnaires were used to collect relevant information on the choice of travel mode. Based on the proposed models, findings identify a hierarchy of importance of relevant factors which could assist decision makers to design and implement more successful future transport service(s).
A Study of Fuel Price Increase and Its Influence on Selection of Mode of Transports
The sudden increase in the use of private vehicles contributed to the increase in traffic congestion, road accidents and pollution. The rise in ownership of private vehicles is caused by, among others, the problem of public transports being unable to fulfil the public’s needs. This made the commuters prefer to use their own vehicles rather than public transports. Based on this scenario, a study has been conducted particularly in UKM (Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia), to study the factors that can diminish the problem of traffic congestion. The main objective of this study is to form a model of shifts of transportation modes from private vehicles to public transports (buses) based on the ‘fuel price increase’ factor (Malaysian Ringgit) to see the change in vehicle preference. This study has succesfully produced a model that relates the fuel price to modes of transportation shift by obtaining a correlation exceeding 0.9. The test of sensitivity for the model showed that the rate of fuel price hike influenced at least 88% of private vehicle users to shift to public transports if the fuel price reached RM2.75. From this study, it can also be concluded that the effects of fuel price increase influenced the shift of preference from private to public transports with the types of vehicles and the rate of price increase as variables.
Car Dependence Factors in Mid-Sized Cities
2015
Travel behavior has been the subject of several authors' research studies in recent decades. These studies focus on analyzing the negative consequences associated with heavily car oriented modal splits mostly on large well developed cities, however, there is a gap in research for developing countries, especially for mid-sized cities. Bigger cities can be problematic for urban planners compared with smaller cities, especially to alter the modal split. As cities grow modal splits become difficult to alter as cities become more developed. The status quo of the 62 mid-sized cities varies, but between all have a current problem: high levels of car ownership; even compared with megacities such as the capital. Conversely, mid-sized cities still have potential for implementing plans to effectively control car ownership levels. This research attempts to explain if the selected sixteen factors influence the modal split. As well it explains the relationship between these factors in the city. The city of Ensenada is selected as a case study subject, as it represents a normal mid-sized city in Mexico with the additional characteristic of being close to the USA border. This study is an aggregated approach using linear regression analysis. Three main areas are analyzed throughout this research: urban form, transportation variables, and socioeconomic factors. Linear regression analysis is used to produce more reliable results for 16 variables in the three different areas. The regression analysis clarifies whether these variables are relevant and how they have influenced car ownership ratios in Ensenada between 1980 and 2014. Relevant variables are selected and used to test initial hypotheses made from analysis of previous studies. Results present some discrepancies with results from previous studies, but most variables proved to have an effect car ownership levels. The special characteristics of the city play a role in these findings. These results were used to develop recommendations in a short, mid and long term. The recommendations are based on the descriptive analyses and the statistics findings of this work. Further work's recommendations encompass other focuses such as disaggregated research and more in-depth aggregated investigation as the inclusion of more detailed variables.
Modes of Commuting in Mumbai: A Discrete Choice Analysis
Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies, 2001
Using a nested multinomial logit model (NMNL), this paper estimates the choice probabilities and demand elasticities of various modal alternatives for Mumbai using 1990 trip origination and destination data. The results indicate that with an increase in the cost of private transit system, market share is reduced. The result of this experiment is highly elastic private commuting mode demand. In addition, reduction in the market share of own vehicles is larger than that of hired vehicles. The increase in the cost of mass transit system reduces its share but is inelastic. Decrease in the market share of one mode is accompanied by increase in the market share of others. Income has a positive effect on the market share of private transit modes, particularly on the own vehicles' share. Other explanatory variables such as distance have a negative effect on mass transit system and duration has a negative elasticity for all modes of transportation.