Missiles Are Not the Only Threat (original) (raw)

2020, Beyond Bursting Bubbles – Understanding the Full Spectrum of the Russian A2/AD Threat and Identifying Strategies for Counteraction

It is normal for discussions about anti-access/area denial, A2/AD, to focus on the threat of missiles, their ranges and capabilities, and how to counter them. But this is only part of the challenge posed to military mobility by states like Russia; and in fact, launching missiles is the least likely means of preventing movement that Russia could employ. Russia has a wide range of other means of preventing movement into or within an area of potential or current conflict. Whether referred to by any of their current names - political warfare, or sub-threshold operations, grey zone or hybrid - any of the methods that Russia could employ that do not involve open and undeniable hostilities will be encountered well before the first missile is fired. Russia will use these measures first because they are less costly, less risky, and certainly less escalatory than any of the more high-profile methods normally considered under the heading of A2/AD. This chapter therefore considers the range of measures that Russia could employ against plans for national and operational military movement, reception, staging, onward movement, and integration that do not involve missiles, mines, or other munitions.