The Dilemmas of American Democracy Promotion in the Arab World (original) (raw)

2008, Yale Journal of International Affairs

American efforts to promote democracy in the Middle East under the Bush administration have floundered. This article explains why. First, American policymakers have proven unwilling to sponsor electoral openings that might favor the ascendance of potentially hostile Islamist groups. Second, they have refused to attach negative conditionality to reform demands made to strategic autocratic allies-that is, punishing noncompliance by withdrawing economic aid, military assistance, and other forms of support. Both obstacles reflect the reality that America's overarching strategic goals, in particular the preservation of Israel's security and regional hydrocarbon reserves, require a vision of regional stability that unpredictable regime shifts would endanger. Hence today's paradox of why the democratizing intentions of a unilateral superpower -- one with unmatched political and military power -- have been effectively stymied by its smaller, weaker, and poorer authoritarian allies.