PERANAN INFLASI, SUKU BUNGA SBI, KURS DOLLAR DALAM MEMPENGARUHI INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG (original) (raw)
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This study was conducted to analyze the effect of variable inflation rates, exchange rate of USD / IDR and SBI interest rate on JCI. Research hypothesis: 1.Variabel inflation rate (X1), affect the JCI, 2.Variabel exchange rate of USD / IDR (X2) effect on JCI, 3.Variabel SBI rate (X3) influence the JCI, 4.Variabel inflation (X1), the exchange rate of USD / IDR (X2) and SBI interest rate (X3), simultaneously affect the JCI. The data were analyzed secondary data, time series with the period April 2007 to March 2009. Data collection was obtained by downloading the http://www.idx.co.id/ site, to obtain monthly JCI, and http: // www.bi.go.id/web/id/, to obtain data on inflation, the data exchange rate of USD / IDR and SBI rate. Data processing is intended to measure the relationship of causality (cause-effect), the independent variable or the independent variable, the dependent variable or dependent variable. Appropriate analytical tools for this purpose is a multiple regression analysis. Media processing of data to test the hypothesis of this study using SPSS (Statistical Product and Service Solutions). Regression analysis, concluded that together (simultaneously), all three variables, namely the rate of inflation, exchange rate USD / IDR and rate of SBI rates significantly affect the JCI. In partial significance test variable inflation rate does not affect the JCI, while the variable exchange rate of USD / IDR and SBI interest rate showed significant results with a coefficient of 0.18 and 3.29. Recommendations that can be given is, the investor community should be more selective in choosing stocks that want to have. Macroeconomic variables should be examined carefully in conjunction with the JCI, primarily SBI interest rate, given the impact that a significant and dominant with coefficient of 3.29%. The Government as Regulator, then monetary policy can be taken is to control inflation by targeting low inflation, stabilize the SBI interest rate and stabilize the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar, given the changes in these variables affect the JCI. Control variables SBI certainly should be preferred for the formulation of monetary policy, given the variables have a significant effect as well as dominant against JCI. Abstrak Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh variabel tingkat inflasi, nilai tukar USD/Rupiah dan tingkat suku bunga SBI terhadap IHSG. Hipotesis penelitian: 1.Variabel tingkat inflasi (X 1), berpengaruh terhadap IHSG, 2.Variabel nilai tukar USD/Rupiah (X 2) berpengaruh terhadap IHSG, 3.Variabel tingkat suku bunga SBI (X 3) berpengaruh terhadap IHSG, 4.Variabel tingkat inflasi (X 1), nilai tukar USD/Rupiah (X 2) dan tingkat suku bunga SBI (X 3), secara simultan berpengaruh
). The analytical tool used in this study is multiple linier regession with Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) as the dependent variable and four independent variabel are the variable exchange rate rupiah, the rate of 1 month SBI interest rate, inflation and money supply (M2). After being tested deviations classical assumptions, the result indicate normally distributed data and not obtained an aberration. Based on the calculation results obtained value Eviews 6 count F= 264.7399 with a significance F of 0.000. By using the 0,05 significance level obtained value of F table 2.44. Then count F (264.7399) > F table (2.44), or significanceof F 0,000 indicates less than 0,05 so it can be concluded that the four independent variables namely the exchange rate rupiah, the rate of 1 month, inflation, and money supply (M2) jointly affect the accepted the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) in Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) is accepted. Partial variable excange rate rupiah and interest rates have a significant 1 month SBI. While the variable inflation and money supply (M2) was not significant. And of the four variable are the most dominant influence of Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) in Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) is the exchange rate rupiah. With count t value of -9.280776 and significance probability of 0,000. Keywords: Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG), exchange rate rupiah, rate of 1 month SBI interest rate, inflation, and Money Supply (M2)
JIMEN Jurnal Inovatif Mahasiswa Manajemen, 2022
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengukur seberapa besar pengaruh Nilai Tukar/ Kurs dan Suku Bunga terhadap IHSG. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah IHSG yang terdaftar di BEI, nilai tukar/kurs dan suku bunga pada bulan Januari 2020 sampai bulan Juni tahun 2021. Metode penentuan data sampel dengan sensus sampling. Metode analisis data yang di guunakan adalah regresi linear berganda, dengan uji hipotesis parsial dan simultan. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa secara parsial Nilai Tukar/ Kurs berpengaruh signifikan terhadap IHSG, Suku Bunga berpengaruh signifikan terhadap IHSG. Sedangkan secara simultan Nilai Tukar/ Kurs dan Suku Bunga berpengaruh terhadap IHSG dan memiliki pengaruh 71.1% sedangkan 28,9% dipengaruhi oleh faktor lain yang tidak dapat dijelaskan dalam penelitian ini.
Metodologi Penelitian, 2019
Globalisasi telah memberikan dampak yang signifikan terhadap perubahan ekonomi di dunia menjadi tak berbatas. Perkembangan ekonomi suatu negara dapat dilihat dari pasar modal negara tersebut. Pasar modal memberikan dampak yang sangat penting bagi suatu negara karena pasar modal memiliki peran sebagai sarana bagi masyarakat untuk berinvestasi pada instrumen keuangan. Oleh sebab itu dinamika dan stabilitas harga saham antara satu bursa dengan bursa lainnya sangat mempengaruhi. Ada beberapa faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi harga saham yaitu Faktor internal yang mempengaruhi harga saham perusahaan penerbit saham itu sendiri, seperti posisi laba dan hutang perusahaan atau struktur manajemen perusahaan tersebut. Faktor internal yang mempengaruhi harga saham berbeda-beda pada setiap emiten, maka dari itu timbul yang timbul dari faktor internal merupakan risiko tidak sistematis. Risiko yang dapat dieliminasi dengan diversifikasi disebut dengan risiko tidak sistematis (unsystematic risk) (Sudiyatno, et. Al, 2009). Selain dipengaruhi oleh permintaan oleh (permintaan) dan penawaran penawaran), harga saham juga dapat ditawarkan oleh beberapa faktor eksternal (makro) yang berasal dari perusahaan luar (Lingkungan makro). Faktor eksternal (makro) yang dapat mempengaruhi perubahan harga saham antara lain seperti pengumuman pemerintah seperti pengumuman suku bunga dan paket kebijakan ekonomi, gejolak politik dalam negeri, besarnya tingkat inflasi, perubahan harga komoditas tambang seperti minyak dan emas, kebijakan ekonomi negara lain, dan berbagai faktor lainnya (Puspitarani, 2016) Banyak Faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi Indeks Saham, antara lain perubahan suku bunga bank sentral, ekonomi global tingkat harga energi dunia, kestabilan ekonomi negara dan lain-lain (Blanchard, 2006). Sudjono dalam Syarofi (2014) memperoleh bukti empiris dalam penelitiannya yaitu variabel-variabel makro seperti bunga deposito, SBI, jumlah uang yang dibeli, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS, dan inflasi memiliki hubungan yang signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham. Sementara menurut Samsul dalam
PENGARUH INFLASI, SUKU BUNGA, KURS, DAN PERTUMBUHAN PDB TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN
The Effect of Inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, and GDP growth Toward Indonesia Composite Index. This research aims to investigate empirically the effect of selected macroeconomic variables, i.e., inflation rate, Bank Indonesia Certificate rate, the exchange rate on IDR, and GDP growth on Indonesia Composite Index at The Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX). This paper examines the direct effect of selected macroeconomic variabel on Indonesia Composite Index. The paper employs a regression model analysis. The result indicates that only the exchange rate on IDR significantly effects to Indonesia Composite Index. The inflation rate, Bank Certificate rate, and GDP growth do not effect to Indonesia Composite Index. This research only covers four selected macroeconomic variables. Therefore, further research should examine other potential macroeconomic variables. Abstrak: Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga, Kurs, dan Pertumbuhan PDB Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meneliti secara empiris pengaruh variabel‐variabel makroekonomi, yaitu : tingkat inflasi, suku bunga sertifikat Bank Indonesia, kurs, dan tingkat pertumbuhan GDP terhadap IHSG di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi berganda. Hasil penelitian menemukan bahwa hanya kurs yang berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap IHSG, sedangkan tingkat inflasi, suku bunga SBI dan pertumbuhan PDB tidak berpengaruh terhadap IHSG. Penelitian ini hanya menggunakan empat variabel makroekonomi, sehingga penelitian selanjutnya perlu menemukan variabel makroekonomi lain yang diduga berpengaruh terhadap IHSG. Kata kunci : variabel makroekonomi, IHSG.
This research is intended to analyze the effect of`exchange rates, interest rate of Bank Indonesia Certificates, inflation and GDP growth on the movement of Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) in Indonesia Stock Exchange. This research to applies secondary data quarterly period March 2002 to September 2012. The analysis based on the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method The results showed that the independent variables simultaneously significant effect on IHSG. In partial exchange rate, interest rate of Bank Indonesia Certificates and affect GDP growth significant the IHSG movement, while inflation had no significant effect on CSPI. For that researchers expect the monetary authority to control the movement of the CSPI priority on stability of the exchange rate policy, the interest rate of Bank Indonesia Certificates and GDP growth, which will strengthen the control and stability of the stock market in Indonesia Stock Exchange.
). The analytical tool used in this study is multiple linier regession with Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) as the dependent variable and four independent variabel are the variable exchange rate rupiah, the rate of 1 month SBI interest rate, inflation and money supply (M2). After being tested deviations classical assumptions, the result indicate normally distributed data and not obtained an aberration. Based on the calculation results obtained value Eviews 6 count F= 264.7399 with a significance F of 0.000. By using the 0,05 significance level obtained value of F table 2.44. Then count F (264.7399) > F table (2.44), or significanceof F 0,000 indicates less than 0,05 so it can be concluded that the four independent variables namely the exchange rate rupiah, the rate of 1 month, inflation, and money supply (M2) jointly affect the accepted the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) in Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) is accepted. Partial variable excange rate rupiah and interest rates have a significant 1 month SBI. While the variable inflation and money supply (M2) was not significant. And of the four variable are the most dominant influence of Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) in Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) is the exchange rate rupiah. With count t value of -9.280776 and significance probability of 0,000. Keywords: Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG), exchange rate rupiah, rate of 1 month SBI interest rate, inflation, and Money Supply (M2)
Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis adanya pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga SBI, Kurs Mata Uang Rupiah Atas Dollar, indeks dow jones terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Pada Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) periode 2010-2014. Jenis penelitian ini adalah penelitian kuantitatif. Jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data kuantitatif time series (runtut waktu) yang bersumber dari data sekunder, yaitu data yang diperoleh secara tidak langsung atau melalui informasi yang didapatkan dari buku, dokumen, maupun situs lembaga tertentu. sampel yang diambil dalam penelitian ini adalah nilai IHSG pada setiap akhir bulan pengamatan periode 2010-2014 pada Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Jumlah data ada setiap bulan selama 5 tahun sehingga ada 60 data tingkat suku bunga SBI, kurs mata uang Rupiah atas Dollar AS, Indeks Saham Dow Jones dan perkembangan IHSG. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan yaitu uji validitas dan reliabilitas, uji normalitas, uji multikolinearitas, uji heteroskedastisitas, dan uji hipotesis menggunakan analisis regresi linear berganda Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa: 1) berpengaruh negatif dan siginifikan antara tingkat suku bunga SBI dengan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG), 2) Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh yang positif dan signifikan antara kurs mata uang Rupiah atas Dollar AS terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG), 3) Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh yang positif dan signifikan antara Indeks Dow Jones terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Kata Kunci: Suku Bunga SBI, Nilai Kurs Mata Uang Rupiah Terhadap Dollar AS), Indeks Dow Jones (DJIA), Dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Abstract This study was aimed at analyzing the effect of the effect of SBI interest rate, rate of exchange of rupiah into dollar, and Dow Jones index on Composite Share Price Index (IHSG) rate in Indonesia stock exchange (BEI) in the 2010-2014 period. This was a quantitative research. The type of data used was time series quantitative data obtained from secondary data, namely data obtained indirectly or through information accessed from books, documents, and the website of a certain organization. The sample was in the form of IHSG value at the end of the 2010-2014 month of observation period in Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI). The number of data in
2014
This study aims to determine the significant influence of SBI interest rate, inflation rate, stock price index and foreign exchange (KLSI and HSI) on return of equity mutual funds of 2008-2012 periods. From the calculation results as follows: a) SBI rate , inflation rate, stock price index and foreign stock exchange (KLSI and HSI) simultaneously has significant effect to rate of return of equity mutual funds; b) Generally, SBI, inflation, stock index and foreign exchange can explain the variation in equity fund return with a range of 21 % to 97.6 % . This means, SBI interest rate, inflation, stock index and foreign exchange can be used to estimate the rate of return on equity mutual fund; c) results of partial test generated several findings as follows: 1) SBI interest rate significantly influence the rate of return on almost all equity mutual fund; 2) rate of inflation did not significantly influence the rate of return on equity mutual funds; 3) JCI turned out to significantly influence the overall level of equity fund returns; 4) KLSE Composite index has a significant effects of six equity mutual funds (YPDP, YGSP , YBDS, YPS, YSDPP, and YGDE), while HIS composite index, has no significant effect on rate of return on equity funds.
ANALISIS PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR, TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA DAN INFLASI TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM
This study aims to analyze the effect of variable exchange rates, interest rates and inflation on share prices of listed property sector in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The population in this study is a company incorporated in the listed property sector in Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) for the period from 2007 to 2011. Samples obtained using purposive sampling method to obtain 48 companies. This study uses Ordinary Least Square analysis to determine the effect of independent variables on the stock price index of the listed property sector in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Based on t test, the exchange rate a significant negative effect on property sector stock price index, while the variable interest rates have a positive but not significant and variable inflation is positive but not significant effect on the property sector stock price index. Results simultaneously with the F test showed that all the independent variables significantly influence the stock price index property sector. So that only the exchange rate has an influence on stock price index of listed property sector in Indonesia Stock Exchange. PENDAHULUAN Pasar modal memiliki peran besar dalam perekonomian suatu negara, dimana pasar modal dapat menjadi alternatif sumber pembiayaan kegiatan