Trends and Dynamics of the Libya Conflict WalnshakDanfulani (original) (raw)
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AN ANALYSIS ON THE FUTURE OF LIBYAN POLITICAL SYSTEM
International Journal Entrepreneurship and Management Inquiries Dergisi / Cilt 2 / Sayı 3 / 16-32 International Journal Entrepreneurship and Management Inquiries (Journal EMI) Dergisi
Politics is the activity they are doing to create, maintain and change the general rules in which people live as a subject.
Five years after the uprisings that marked the end of one of the most brutal dictatorships history ever witnessed, Libya is still on the brink. Notwithstanding its huge economic, human and geopolitical potential, the country is still straddling be- tween the promises of a new era and the perils of fragmenta- tion. The history of the post-Qaddafi Libya is a tale of squan- dered opportunities, internal strife and external interfer- ences. However, all these difficulties did not completely erad- icate hope. Hope in a future able to reverse the legacy of ha- tred and instability left by the civil war and in the promises set forth by a “spring” whose importance – despite all the difficul- ties that followed the 2011 events – is still strong and vivid in the minds of the population. The process that should have transformed the country into a model of democracy, prosperity and stability began to come under growing strain somewhere between 2012 and 2014. On 11 September 2012 the assassination of US Ambassador Chris- topher Stevens in Benghazi shed light on a socio-political and security scenario that, almost a year after the toppling of the Qaddafi regime and a few months (August 2012) after the proclamation of the General National Council (GNC) was far from being rosy, challenged by a series of internal and exter- nal factors that came to threaten the very foundations of the Libyan system. A situation well reflected by the fall, between October 2012 and June 2014, of three cabinets (the ones led by Mr. Mustafa Abushaghur, Mr. Ali Zeidan and Mr. Abdullah al-Thani) and – even more – by the deep fissures that emerged with the 2014 elections. The outcome of the voting was fiercely contested by an array of different political and paramilitary forces that refused to recognize the new parlia- ment. Their occupation of the capital and the plea for prose- cution of the GNC mandate was met by stiff local and interna- tional opposition that in any case proved unable to protect the new assembly. Threatened by growing insecurity and turmoil, most of the members of the newly elected parliament abandoned Tripoli and reconvened in Tobruk, where they could count on the protection of the forces loyal to Gen. Khalifa Haftar. From that moment on two distinct bodies (the assemblies in Tripoli and Tobruk) claimed to be the sole legitimate representative of a country that began to crumble under competing interests and growing financial stress. The impasse was followed by fierce military clashes that contributed to the fragmentation of the nascent Libyan institutions and to the emergence of a broad array of actors who did not hesitate to exploit the situa- tion to fill the socio-political vacuum. Among them there were forces loyal to the self-proclaimed “Islamic State” that, despite being limited to a restricted string of territories (mainly Der- na, Sirte and more recently Sabratha) and being backed by a few thousand militants, claimed to represent a third autono- mous decisional centre, de facto contributing to the deepening fragmentation of the country. To respond to the polarisation that affected the country and to the growing instability, the international community launched – under the auspices of the United Nations – a se- ries of diplomatic efforts that led to the so-called Skhirat Agreement. The deal, signed in Morocco in December 2015, paved the way for the creation of a unified government and for the beginning of a new phase for the Libyan system. A passage that, while marred by important internal opposition and competing external agendas, seems to reflect the desire of the huge majority of the Libyan population, setting the conditions for a reconciliation process that – albeit difficult – is still possible. It is within this framework that CRiSSMA – with the support of the Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs – organized during the second half of 2015 a series of closed Italian-Libyan roundtables aimed at deepening the understanding of the complex equilibriums governing the Libyan scenario and at defining a set of concrete measures that could be implement- ed to support Libyan reconciliation and reconstruction pro- cesses. Among the initiatives realized, CRiSSMA convened a group of experts tasked with the drafting of targeted working papers aimed at tackling some of the main challenges affect- ing the current Libyan scenario. In his opening chapter, Dr. Arturo Varvelli addresses the deep causes and distant origins that fed the extremely critical period Libya recently went through, from weak national Liby- an identity to the controversial legacies of the 2011 civil war. In particular, the author analyses the impact and significance of the Skhirat agreement, its enforcement and sustainability, the challenges related to integrations of the militias in the Libyan security forces and, finally, the role and extent of ji- hadi groups’ activities in the country. The second chapter drafted by Dr. Claudia Gazzini pre- sents a detailed analysis of the most important implications stemming from “the battle for Libya’s oil and revenues”. The au- thor underlines how the ongoing quest for Libya’s hydrocar- bon infrastructure and resources perfectly condenses the countless challenges posed by the post-Qaddafi transition era. According to Dr. Gazzini, the recovery of the Libyan econom- ic sector should be considered a priority of any unity govern- ment as well as a confidence-building measure able to strengthen mutual trust among all the belligerents. In the third chapter, Dr. Mattia Toaldo describes the posi- tive impact exerted by local administrations on the peace- making process, focusing in particular on the conditions that led to the successful establishment of several cease-fires, espe- cially in the eastern part of the country. As the paper under- lines, although partially under-estimated, Libyan municipali- ties remain one of the few democratically elected institutions that continue to enjoy significant popular credibility, thanks also to their ability to deliver services to a population long ne- glected by central governments and institutions. According to Dr. Toaldo, municipalities should be supported in improving service delivery, institutional resilience, urban planning, eco- nomic regulations and, finally, in their ability to act as neutral forums for the multiple socio-political actors claiming to rep- resent Libyan interests and positions. In the last chapter, Dr. Giovanni Parigi reconsiders the current Libyan scenario through the lenses of the lessons learned in Iraq since 2003. As the author points out, although huge differences separate the two case studies, they share the experience of the disruptive role of militias and rentierism as well as the controversial legacy of pervasive regimes, civil wars and jihadist activism. Dr. Parigi stresses the importance of power-sharing agreements and political reforms as necessary conditions for the setting up of national security forces. At the same time, this will also require flexibility towards local bal- ances of power, given the strong relationship between mili- tias, local communities and tribes. Accordingly, in order to avoid the mistakes made in Iraq with the demobilization of the pro-American and pro-government Sunni militias of the Sahwa, it will be of strategic importance to integrate reconcil- able militias within the framework of a Libyan National Guard. All these analyses maintain their significance, beyond the confusing pace of events, conflict decisions and diverging narratives which characterize the current Libyan scenario, of- fering the reader a valuable key to understanding them.
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The Arab uprisings and subsequent civil wars have influenced many countries in the Middle East, and over time led to one of the largest refugee movements since World War II. Libya and Syria, which have been the greatest sources of mass movements of refugees and asylum seekers, have had considerable impact on the neighbouring countries. The policies developed by the international community, especially by the European Union, in response to the mass movement of peoples have remained weak, and eventually the situation has turned into a protection crisis. This thesis aims to reveal the link between refugee protection and the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) principle. Accordingly, it addresses the international responsibility for the protection of refugees within the framework of R2P, which as a principle establishes that sovereignty brings with it the responsibility of a state towards its population, and if that state is unable or unwilling to fulfil this responsibility, then it should b...
Trends and Dynamics of the Libya Conflict
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The conflict in Libya manifests complex dynamics involving personal, group and international interests in a decade long struggle for power and its accruing benefits. Militia, terror and shadow groups are involved in moves and counter moves, flexible alliances and counter alliances based on interests that intricately maneuver fault-lines in the clash and dialogue of civilizations. This study looks at the trends and dynamics of the Libyan conflict; parties involved; the justification behind their actions. The study has recommended the complete withdrawal of shadow parties in the crisis to lessen the complexities involved in solving the crisis, implementation of proper Demobilization, Disarmament and Reintegration and power sharing under a federal structure.
A new season for Libya Meaning and future perspectives of the Libyan civil war
This paper will be an attempt of understanding the on-going situation of the Libyan conflict. The work will begin with the analysis of the word conflict and its theoretical implications, and then it will focus on a practical application of the conflict analysis in one of the most important, although not always considered, scenario in the Mediterranean area: the Libyan civil war. The importance for the international community of this conflict is given by the role United Nations and the NATOhave had in the first part of the Libyan uprising and inthe overthrowing of the Colonel Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi. The word conflict, as Bernard S. Mayer in his work “The Dynamics of Conflict Resolutions” stated, “may be viewed as a feeling, a disagreement, a real or perceived incompatibility of interests, inconsistent worldviews, or a set of behaviors”. The conflict can be generated both from the unbalanced condition within the society and from the transformation of the social links, provoking a necessary conflict for the evolution of the social dynamics. There is a multitude of different interests brought by different actors: this is the first factor of a conflict. What does the conflict mean for Libya? And what will the possible solutions be?
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Libya: from one revolution to another
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The revolution that overthrew Gaddafi's regime in 2011 was deeply marked by the essential features of Libyan society, such as its lack of social integration or its widespread clientelism and tribalism. All these features are deeply rooted in the historical past of the country. The Gaddafist regime itself was also formed very much by these same factors, and at the same time, it helped to shape them to some extent. Thus, it can be said that this regime was a singular experiment of partial modernisation in combination with a pronounced conservatism with respect to other aspects of social life. Consequently, despite its enthusiastic revolutionary rethoric, it appeared to be not very different from other regimes in the region. We believe it is on this basis that its ideology must be approached. Not only its actions in both the internal and external spheres but also those aspects that are most idiosyncratic and striking, such as the Green Book or the frequently histrionic behaviour of its leader.
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Abstract: Libya is the most predisposed to internal divisions and instability. At the same time it’s also the only North African state to have failed to do away with the ethnic and tribal barriers and to create a national identity. The main barrier to achieving this goal has been and still is geography and wealth along with the tribal segmentations in the country. This article presents current state of affairs in Libya after the uprising which led by the NATO’ campaign in March 2011. In other word, the analysis is based on the context of the “Arab Spring”, in which we under the aspects of the current Libya’s military politics, and analyzing the prospects of the ongoing democratic control and the transitional attempts from the revolutionary to the institutional state status