A System Dynamics Approach to Decision- making Tools in Farm Tourism Development (original) (raw)

Developing a diversification strategy of non-agricultural activities on farms using system dynamics modelling: a case study of Slovenia

Kybernetes

PurposeThis paper aims to analyse the main variables and causal relationships in the system structure of the diversification of non-agricultural activities on agricultural holdings using system dynamics (SD) modelling. The SD model aims to simulate depictions of the behaviour of the real system while testing the effects of alternative decisions over time.Design/methodology/approachAn SD methodology was chosen to model diversification in farm tourism.FindingsA system approach increases the authors’ understanding of the transition of agricultural holdings to farm tourism. The results indicate that the transition to farm tourism depends on the level of tourism development in a certain area. The system is influenced by subsidies allocated by authorities to expand primary agricultural activities. The model describes a situation in which the tourism and agricultural industries have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.Research limitations/implicationsThe research is limited by the small...

System Dynamics framework for tourism development management

Current Issues in Tourism, 2022

Tourism management requires an understanding of the structures that govern the behaviour of the Tourism system and its development. Despite the strong growth of this activity in recent decades, studies in this regard are still below needs. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to investigate the cause–effect relationships between variables related to Tourism development using the System Dynamics technique. A bibliographic research was carried out to provide empirical evidence for the construction of the model. The result presented is a Causal Loop Diagram composed of seven units in dynamic interaction: tourists, natural and cultural resources, attractions (attractiveness), infrastructure and superstructure, Tourism services and equipment, Tourism demand (market) and competitive rivalry (market). The microenvironment and macroenvironment of the system were also highlighted. The results show that the pattern of Tourism Development Dynamics, with two dominant loops conjugated in negative feedback, follows the behaviour of an S-Shaped Curve. However, this behaviour can be altered by the influence of infrastructure and superstructure on natural and cultural resources.

Modelling of a Tourism Strategy in a Frame of System Dynamics

Tourism development through optimal tourism strategy is a goal of several economies irrespective of their political orientation, social development, or cultural diversity. Influences of tourism are visible in a large variety of industries, on both local and global levels. Development of a tourism strategy is based on different scenarios, model development, and a validation of the model. In order to obtain the results that can later be applied to a real tourism system, we need an optimal tourism strategy. The main aim of this paper is to show the implementation of a different approach in developing tourism strategy by using system approach. The appropriateness and transparency of modelling and a system dynamics methodology will be shown and applied to a general tourism system. The system dynamics models will be developed and presented as the illustrations of the discussed methodology.

Regional Sustainable Tourism – A System Dynamics Perspective

Tourism & Hospitality - sustainability and responsibility, 2015

Sustainability has become a crucial and very widely applied concept in modern management. Although many would agree that it is necessary, it also presents a big challenge especially for the tourism industry which has a very complex structure of different stakeholders and their relationships. We think that it is necessary to use advanced methods that could help with such complexity and allow managers to foresee short-term and long-term impacts of their decisions and policies. One of the approaches that may help decision-makers with better understanding of complex systems and improve their decision-making is system dynamics – a methodology that has been developed at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management. We are presenting here a generic system dynamics metamodel of regional tourism which as we argue demonstrates both the ability of system dynamics methodology use for dealing with such complex issues and also allows to develop own system dynamics models that could help to analyse different policies, their sustainability and logical outcomes for different stakeholders in a chosen regional tourism industry.

Ein Konzept Des Multikriteriensystems Für Entscheidungstreffen Im Tourismus Mit Systemdinamik Modellen

Tourism hospitality management, 2002

Tourism is a type of inter-organisational system with global and local properties. Problems are defined softly and phenomena are uncertain. There are demands for fast and integrated decisions for guest satisfaction as service users and tourism organisations as service providers. There are many different methodologies and methods that master softly structured problems. Here one encounters methods of systems dynamics and systems thinking. These tools were first brought into force in the educational and training area in the form of different computer simulations and later as tools for decision-making and organisational re-engineering. System dynamics models are essentially simple and can serve only as describers of the activity of basic mutual influences among variables. Attention will be paid to the methodology for parameter model values determination and the so-called mental model, which is the basis of causal connections among model variables. Thus, a connection between qualitative and quantitative models will be restored.

SYSTEMS APPROACH TO COMPLEX SYSTEMS MODELLING WITH SPECIAL REGARDS TO TOURISM

In this paper, the importance of context dependent modelling of complex systems, depending on the observer's point of view will be discussed. Thus, context is synonymous for the content of a problem in a frame of the goals, starting points and ways to achieve these aims. In this light, difficulties of model validation and a general method how to overcome them will be discussed. The relations among subject – object – model in the light of a systems approach; Charles Sanders Peirce's triad principle and the semiotic principle of communication will be also discussed. The appropriateness of a system dynamics methodology, which is due to its transparency an excellent tool for modelling of complex systems for strategic decision-making assessment will be shown. The methodology will be applied to a global tourism system, which possesses the typical properties of global and local organisations. A verbal description of a tourism problem is followed by a causal loop diagram, which helps to discuss the problem categorically. We named it a qualitative modelling. At the conclusion we will present a simulation model in a frame of system dynamics as an illustration of the discussed methodology.

Using System Dynamics Methodology to analyse the Economic Impact of Tourism Multipliers

2001

The importance of tourism for economic development is widely recognised . This is reflected in the great interest shown by governments by promoting foreign direct investment and freeing both public and private sector projects. Most tourism studies concentrate on analysing the economic and social effects of tourism. The impact of the multiplier has been studied widely using traditional econometric techniques.

Analysis of Improvement of the Agrarise Sector For the Tourism Village Industry Using Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)

IJASS PUBLICATIOIN, 2022

This study aims to analyze the efforts that have to do in increasing the potential of agrarian through the current method, namely the agricultural sector based on tourism villages. The research method used is descriptive qualitative. The theoretical basis in this research is the system thinking theory, which is to understand a change in a complex environment. The method of analysis in this system is the Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). The results of the CLD analysis show that in order to increase the agricultural sector towards tourism villages, the first is the government's effort to promote the regional base as a potential resource. The second is education, as an effort to educate or equip the community with scientific and creative methods. Thethird is execution, which means the government launches a program then ratified by a Decree related to the ease of administering the funds needed by the community for investment. The problems faced in increasing the agricultural sector to tourism villages are on three lines, namely the government, the community, and other factors. These problems include complicated regulations, quality, funding, community laziness, competitiveness, mastery of technology, infrastructure, strategic locations, weather/climate

System dynamics models as decision-making tools in agritourism

Agritourism as a type of niche tourism is a complex and softly defined phaenomenon. The demands for fast and integrated decision regarding agritourism and its interconnections with environment, economy (investments, traffic) and social factors (tourists) is urgent. Many different methodologies and methods master softly structured questions and dilemmas with global and local properties. Here we present methods of systems thinking and system dynamics, which were first brought into force in the educational and training area in the form of different computer simulations and later as tools for decision-making and organisational re-engineering. We develop system dynamics models in order to present accuracy of methodology. These models are essentially simple and can serve only as describers of the activity of basic mutual influences among variables. We will pay the attention to the methodology for parameter model values determination and the so-called mental model. This one is the basis of causal connections among model variables. At the end, we restore a connection between qualitative and quantitative models in frame of system dynamics.

Tourism farms: a demand-supply framework

Research Papers in Economics, 2016

The aim of this paper is to set a demand and supply framework within the farming sector engaged in agritourism activity. The study is based on data collected at twenty different agritourism located in South Tyrol (Italy) during December 2013 and December 2014. As a first step of the empirical research, through a cluster analysis, the sample of tourism farms is classified into two homogenous groups, that is: “tourism enthusiast” and “tourism opportunist” farms. As a second step of the investigation, a principal component analysis is run to gather orthogonal latent variables related to general and specific motivations (i.e. push and pull factors), and positive and negative perceived externalities. In this manner, through a probabilistic modeling, it is possible to investigate the determinants that are likely to influence the likelihood to choose one of the two types of agritourism. The results show that general push motivations, as well as the specific motivations related to nature an...