Peak Phosphorus: Clarifying the Key Issues of a Vigorous Debate about Long-Term Phosphorus Security (original) (raw)

Peak phosphorus: implications for agriculture

Phosphorus (P) is as essential to agriculture as it is to life. Contrary to predictions of ‘peak P’ and a looming crisis in P supply, recent studies show that rock phosphate (RP) reserves will last for centuries. Mine production capacity is approaching the long-term demand for P, which is expected to plateau mid-century and then decline as global population stabilises and the demand for P in developing countries declines, as it has in many developed countries in recent decades. Nevertheless, there is no room for complacency about RP supply, as major reserves are held by only a few countries and there are significant geopolitical and trade issues to be managed if all farmers are to have equitable access to P-fertilizer. Despite plentiful reserves, careful stewardship is needed to ensure P supplies into the distant future. Global P budgets identify possible areas for reducing consumption, but the potential for on-farm actions to reduce long-term use of RP-based fertiliser are limited,...

Tracking phosphorus security: indicators of phosphorus vulnerability in the global food system

Food Security, 2015

Phosphorus underpins global food systems by ensuring soil fertility, farmer livelihoods, agricultural productivity and global food security. Yet there is a lack of research and effective governance at global or national scales designed to ensure the future availability and accessibility of this global resource. The world's main source of phosphorus, phosphate rock, is a finite resource that is becoming increasingly scarce, expensive and subject to geopolitical tensions as one country, Morocco, controls three-quarters of the world's remaining high-grade reserves. Given the criticality of phosphorus and the vulnerability of the world's food systems to phosphorus scarcity, there is a strong need to stimulate appropriate sustainable phosphorus practices and technologies, and simultaneously, to initiate effective international governance mechanisms, including policy/research coordination and accountability. Sustainability indicators are increasingly being used as tools to facilitate accountability, implementation, evaluation and communication for global sustainability challenges. This paper presents the first comprehensive set of phosphorus vulnerability and security indicators at global and national scales. Global indicators include: phosphate price, market concentration and supply risk, relative physical phosphorus scarcity and eutrophication potential. National indicators include: farmer phosphorus vulnerability, national phosphorus vulnerability, national phosphorus equity and soil phosphorus legacy. Monitoring and tracking such indicators at the national and global levels can ultimately provide evidence of key phosphorus vulnerabilities or 'hotspots' in the food system, support effective phosphorus governance to stimulate targeted and effective action, raise awareness of this food security challenge, and evaluate the effectiveness and performance of global or national sustainable phosphorus projects.

Residual soil phosphorus as the missing piece in the global phosphorus crisis puzzle

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2012

Phosphorus (P) is a finite and dwindling resource. Debate focuses on current production and use of phosphate rock rather than on the amounts of P required in the future to feed the world. We applied a two-pool soil P model to reproduce historical continental crop P uptake as a function of P inputs from fertilizer and manure and to estimate P requirements for crop production in 2050. The key feature is the consideration of the role of residual soil P in crop production. Model simulations closely fit historical P uptake for all continents. Cumulative inputs of P fertilizer and manure for the period 1965–2007 in Europe (1,115 kg⋅ha −1 of cropland) grossly exceeded the cumulative P uptake by crops (360 kg⋅ha −1 ). Since the 1980s in much of Europe, P application rates have been reduced, and uptake continues to increase due to the supply of plant-available P from residual soil P pool. We estimate that between 2008 and 2050 a global cumulative P application of 700–790 kg⋅ha −1 of cropland...

Peak phosphorus–Implications for soil productivity and global food security

Phosphorus is a key element in food production, but is a non-renewable resource. Recent estimates suggest that global production of P fertilizers will peak in 2033 and will be one third of that peak level by the end of the 21 st century. Population and income growth will increase demand for food, and especially animal protein, the production of which will accelerate the reduced availability of P and consequential rising fertilizer prices. The global distribution of current P fertilizer use divides countries into the 'haves' which in many cases face severe pollution problems from excess P, and the 'have-nots' in which low input use annually drains soil P reserves. Coping strategies include improvements in the efficiency of fertilizer P manufacture and use, and recycling of P in liquid and solid wastes. The latter approach offers win-win solutions by reducing the environmental pollution of water in highly populated areas. Future utilisation of scarce P reserves requires policy decisions that take account of equity, productivity, environmental and trade considerations.

Peak phosphorus: Implications for agricultural production, the environment and development

Research Papers in Economics, 2010

Phosphorus is a key element in food production, but is a non-renewable resource. Recent estimates suggest that global production of P fertilizers will peak in 2033 and will be one third of that peak level by the end of the 21st century. Population and income growth will increase demand for food, and especially animal protein, the production of which will accelerate the rundown in P reserves and the consequential rise in fertilizer prices. The global distribution of current P fertilizer use divides countries into the ‘haves’ which in many cases face severe pollution problems from excess P, and the ‘have-nots’ in which low input use annually drains soil P reserves. Coping strategies include improvements in the efficiency of fertilizer P manufacture and use, and the recycling of P in liquid and solid wastes. The latter approach offers win-win solutions by reducing the environmental pollution of water in highly populated areas. Future utilisation of scarce P reserves requires policy dec...

Sustainable Phosphorus Measures: Strategies and Technologies for Achieving Phosphorus Security

Agronomy, 2013

Phosphorus underpins the world's food systems by ensuring soil fertility, maximising crop yields, supporting farmer livelihoods and ultimately food security. Yet increasing concerns around long-term availability and accessibility of the world's main source of phosphorus-phosphate rock, means there is a need to investigate sustainable measures to buffer the world's food systems against the long and short-term impacts of global phosphorus scarcity. While the timeline of phosphorus scarcity is contested, there is consensus that more efficient use and recycling of phosphorus is required. While the agricultural sector will be crucial in achieving this, sustainable phosphorus measures in sectors upstream and downstream of agriculture from mine to fork will also need to be addressed. This paper presents a comprehensive classification of all potential phosphorus supply-and demand-side measures to meet long-term phosphorus needs for food production. Examples range from increasing efficiency in the agricultural and mining sector, to technologies for recovering phosphorus from urine and food waste. Such measures are often undertaken in isolation from one another rather than linked in an integrated strategy. This integrated approach will enable scientists and policy-makers to take a systematic approach when identifying potential sustainable phosphorus measures. If a systematic approach is not taken, there is a risk of inappropriate investment in research and implementation of technologies and that will not ultimately ensure sufficient access to phosphorus to produce food in the future. The paper concludes by introducing a framework to assess and compare sustainable phosphorus measures and to determine the least cost options in a given context.

Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050

Global Food Security, 2020

Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades.

Phosphorus Reserves, Resources and Uses

Our Phosphorus Future, 2022

Five countries hold 85% of the planet’s phosphate rock reserves. High dependency on imported phosphate rock and/or mineral phosphorus fertiliser can contribute to national food system vulnerability. Geological depletion of phosphate rock is not an immediate threat, however geopolitical, institutional, economic, and managerial factors may impact phosphorus access. Improving the efficient use of phosphorus in agriculture and shifting reliance away from mined phosphorus sources by increasing phosphorus recycling may offer the greatest protection against potential phosphorus supply risks.