Alliance @ 70: Philippines-U.S. Security Relations at a Crossroad (original) (raw)


Using a theoretical understanding of small power behavior, this paper examined the national security challenges posed by a potential abrogation of the VFA. Cognizant of their relative weakness, small powers favor the status quo order in order to, among others, broaden the diplomatic space for maneuver and choice, and expand the resources upon which they can use in times of stress. Terminating the VFA would further unleash the remaining restraints to China’s maritime expansionist agenda and would help facilitate Beijing’s efforts to alter the status quo to its favor. Moreover, the decision also produced a cloud of uncertainty over the trajectory of the security relations with the Philippines’ strategic/comprehensive partners as the VFA termination raises the issue of reliability and credibility. Hence, this paper concludes that the decision to abrogate the VFA is at variance with Philippine national security interests as a small power. While the Manila-Washington alliance is far from perfect, supporting continued US presence through the implementation of the VFA is consistent with the Philippines’ efforts in mitigating its geopolitical vulnerabilities. The Philippines must always act with foresight, prudence, and flexibility in the realm of foreign policy because, as Kenneth Waltz argued, “[w]eak states operate on narrow margins. Inopportune acts, flawed policies, and mistimed moves may have fatal results.”

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/04/09/the-philippines-us-visiting-forces-agreement-and-small-power-foreign-policy/

This compilation looks at emerging security dynamics in the Southeast Asian littorals and its impact on Asian geopolitics and security. It presents country perspectives of the strategic implications of recent developments in the South China Sea -- their implications for maritime security and the regional balance of power. After a Arbitral Tribunal pronounced a verdict in July 2016, invalidating China's historical claims in the South China Sea, there is fear that the dispute might turn into a flashpoint for conflict. Beyond dwelling on the strategic deadlock that characterizes the current state-of-play, contributors outline possible solutions and a way forward.

The aim of this policy brief is to discuss how the National Security Strategy (NSS) seeks to promote Philippine national security interests in the South China Sea (SCS). In particular, this paper seeks to answer the following questions: 1) How does the NSS perceive the regional security environment of the Indo-Asia-Pacific particularly, with respect to the SCS?; 2) How does the NSS articulate Philippine national security interests in the SCS and what are the identified courses of action to pursue such interests?; and 3) What are the challenges in promoting Philippine interests in the SCS?

https://www.eurasiareview.com/05032019-manilas-national-security-interests-and-the-philippines-us-mutual-defense-treaty-analysis/

This paper aims to discuss how the Philippines-Japan Strategic Partnership strengthens Manila’s maritime security posture in the SCS. In particular, this article seeks to address the following questions: (1) What is a strategic partnership?; (2) Why is there a strategic imperative for the Philippines and Japan to forge such a partnership?; and (3) How does the PJSPD bolster Manila’s maritime capabilities? Using the strategic partnership framework developed by Thomas Wilkins, this paper argues that Manila and Tokyo forged a strategic partnership largely because of their shared concern over the uncertainty in the regional security environment caused by China’s rise, as manifested by its increasing assertiveness in the SCS. In this context, the Philippines-Japan Strategic Partnership’s objective of promoting peace and stability in the SCS is operationalized by strengthening Manila’s maritime security posture through: 1) enhancing maritime domain awareness; 2) conducting bilateral capacity-building initiatives; and 3) coordinating measures in managing tensions at the multilateral level. http://www.ndcp.edu.ph/wp-content/uploads/publications/3.%20EPB%20re%20PH-Japan\_v11.pdf

This article examines the shifts in Philippine foreign policy under the Duterte Administration, and how these changes impact 21st century Philippine–US alliance. Unlike the Aquino Administration that challenged China’s expansionism in the South China Sea, the Duterte Administration keeps silent on this maritime dispute in exchange for Chinese trade concessions, aid, and investments. President Duterte fosters closer economic and diplomatic relations with China and distances the Philippines from the US Specifically, he seeks China’s assistance for the building of drug-rehabilitation centers for Filipino drug dependents, soft loans for the construction of railways in Mindanao, and even the acquisition of Chinese-made weapons for the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). In consideration of this largess, President Duterte has degraded the country’s strategic security ties with the US by terminating the joint Philippine–US naval patrols in the South China Sea, and limiting the scope and number of US military interactions with the AFP. These moves, which are a dramatic departure from the Philippines’ long-standing policy of maintaining close security ties with the US, have strained the Philippine–US alliance. This article addresses this central question: How do the foreign policy changes under the Duterte Administration adversely impact the Philippine–US alliance? It also raises the following questions: (1) What are the foreign policy goals of the Duterte Administration? (2) How does the Duterte Administration pursue these goals? (3) In what ways does the pursuit of these goals affect Philippine–US alliance? (4) What is the future of Philippine–US alliance in the light of the Duterte Administration’s shifting foreign policy goals? I would have alliances on trade and commerce with China. Russia has

This article examines the reason behind the dramatic shift in Philippine foreign policy under the Duterte Administration. His predecessor, president Benigno Aquino, vigorously challenged China’s expansive territorial claim in the South China Sea throughout his six-year term. However, president Rodrigo Duterte’s actions and pronouncements are undoing the former president’s geopolitical agenda of balancing China’s expansion in the disputed waters. He distances the Philippines from the United States, its long-standing treaty ally, and gravitates toward China. This stance aims to earn goodwill with China so that the Philippines can avail itself of enormous aids and loans from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This stemmed from this administration’s fear that the Philippines would not benefit from China’s emergence as an economic power. Nevertheless, by appeasing an expansionist power, the Philippines becomes complicit to China’s long-term strategy of maritime expansion to push the United States out of East Asia. In conclusion, the article warns that the Duterte Administration might end up losing the country’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea and the confidence and trust of its allies and security partners. This administration might also leave the public coffers empty and dry because of China’s reneging on its commitment to fund the Philippines’ massive infrastructure-building program, labeled “Build, Build, and Build.”