Systemic, Domestic, and Elite Constraints: A Neoclassical Realist Examination of the Relative Decline in U.S. Power and Obama’s Pivot to Asia (original) (raw)

Analytical Liberalism (AL) predicates that preferences emerge from domestic actors and that domestic politics must addressed before any obstacles facing a state can be understood. NCR, rather, is more persuasive in its explanation of foreign policy outcomes during Obama’s presidency because it accepts that the international system is constrained, influenced and shaped by state behavior, and also maintains that domestic-level variables and elite perceptions act as intervening variables thus influencing state foreign policy. The NCR perspective also predicted that a state would pursue a more restricted, cautious foreign policy if it has experienced a decline in relative power. This reflected the Obama administration’s filtration of systemic-level imperatives through the lens of elite perceptions and domestic politics. While the DSG sought to respond to the systemic-level threats posed by China and Iran, it was constrained and shaped by the domestic politics of the fiscal crisis and the Budget Control Act, as well as the worldview of the president and his advisors. By examining systemic, domestic, and elite influences affecting the U.S. in 2012, this paper demonstrates that the DSG illustrates the core principles of NCR.