Water Availability in Snow Dominated Regions under Projected Climatic Variability A Case Study of Alpine Catchment, Austria (original) (raw)
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Annals of Glaciology, 2000
The water balance of Alpine regions is strongly determined by the storage of water in the form of snow and ice On the basis of long time series of daily precipitation, air temperature and discharge, the conceptual runoff model HBV3–ETH9 was applied to various basins of the eastern Alps showing a glacierization of 0–80%. Using the results of regional climate modelling under the assumption of doubling of C02 , the meteorological input data files were altered taking into account more frequent hot days and additional connective precipitation events during the summer months, and the consequences of these changes for daily discharge were evaluated. The results show that in regions with insignificant glacierization, runoff reacts primarily to changes in precipitation, and less so to rising summer air temperature. In highly glacierized basins, however, the same scenarios suggest strongly enhanced water yields in an initial phase. Higher flood peaks will result when high melt rates and heavy...
Assessment of climate‐change impacts on alpine discharge regimes with climate model uncertainty
Hydrological Processes, 2006
This study analyses the uncertainty induced by the use of different state-of-the-art climate models on the prediction of climate-change impacts on the runoff regimes of 11 mountainous catchments in the Swiss Alps having current proportions of glacier cover between 0 and 50%. The climate-change scenarios analysed are the result of 19 regional climate model (RCM) runs obtained for the period 2070-2099 based on two different greenhouse-gas emission scenarios (the A2 and B2 scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and on three different coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), namely HadCM3, ECHAM4/OPYC3 and ARPEGE/OPA. The hydrological response of the study catchments to the climate scenarios is simulated through a conceptual reservoir-based precipitation-runoff transformation model called GSM-SOCONT. For the glacierized catchments, the glacier surface corresponding to these future scenarios is updated through a conceptual glacier surface evolution model.
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Journal of Hydrology, 2003
A temperature index approach including incoming solar radiation was used as a sub-model in the gridded hydrological catchment model WaSiM-ETH to simulate the melt rate of glacierized areas. Melt water and rainfall are transformed into glacier discharge by using linear reservoir approaches. The complex WaSiM model was applied to three Swiss high-alpine river catchments with different portions of glacierized areas to simulate the discharges of the whole catchments. Gridded data sets of elevation, soil type, and land-use were used including meteorological input data from the network of MeteoSwiss. These data were spatially and temporally interpolated and modified according to exposition, slope and topographic shading. Continuous discharge simulations for the catchment areas were performed in a spatial resolution of 100 m and a temporal resolution of 1 h for the period 1981-2000 and compared with hourly discharge observations measured at the catchment outlets. To improve the calculation of glacier runoff, a seasonal varying radiation factor has been implemented in the glacier melt equation. The pronounced diurnal and seasonal fluctuations in discharge, which are typical of partly glacierized catchment areas, were simulated in a good agreement with the observed values.
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Revue de géographie alpine, 2014
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Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2018
Assessment of the future water resources in the Italian Alps under climate change is required, but the hydrological cycle of the highaltitude catchments therein is poorly studied and little understood. Hydrological monitoring and modeling in the Alps is difficult, given the lack of first hand, site specific data. Here, we present a method to model the hydrological cycle of poorly monitored highaltitude catchments in the Alps, and to project forward water resources availability under climate change. Our method builds on extensive experience recently and includes (i) gathering data of climate, of cryospheric variables, and of hydrological fluxes sparsely available; (ii) robust physically based glacio-hydrological modeling; and (iii) using glacio-hydrological projections from GCM models. We apply the method in the Mallero River, in the central (Retiche) Alps of Italy. The Mallero river covers 321 km 2 , with altitude between 310 and 4015 m a.s.l., and it has 27 km 2 of ice cover. The glaciers included in the catchment underwent large mass loss recently, thus Mallero is largely paradigmatic of the present situation of Alpine rivers. We set up a spatially explicit glaciohydrological model, describing the cryospheric evolution and the hydrology of the area during a control run CR, from 1981 to 2007. We then gather climate projections until 2100 from three Global Climate Models of the IPCC AR5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. We project forward flow statistics, flow components (rainfall, snow melt, ice melt), ice cover, and volume for two reference decades, namely 2045-2054 and 2090-2099. We foresee reduction of the ice bodies from − 62 to − 98% in volume (year 2100 vs year 1981), and subsequent large reduction of ice melt contribution to stream flows (from − 61 to − 88%, 2100 vs CR). Snow melt, now covering 47% of the stream flows yearly, would also be largely reduced (from − 19 to − 56%, 2100 vs CR). The stream flows will decrease on average at 2100 (from + 1 to − 25%, with − 7%), with potential for increased flows during fall, and winter, and large decrease in summer. Our results provide a tool for consistent modeling of the cryospheric, and hydrologic behavior, and can be used for further investigation of the high-altitude catchments in the Alps.
Integrated Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Snow‐Influenced Catchment
Groundwater, 2018
The potential impact of climate change on water resources has been intensively studied for different regions and climates across the world. In regions where winter processes such as snowfall and melting play a significant role, anticipated changes in temperature might significantly affect hydrological systems. To address this impact, modifications have been made to the fully integrated surface‐subsurface flow model HydroGeoSphere (HGS) to allow the simulation of snow accumulation and melting. The modified HGS model was used to assess the potential impact of climate change on surface and subsurface flow in the Saint‐Charles River catchment, Quebec (Canada) for the period 2070 to 2100. The model was first developed and calibrated to reproduce observed streamflow and hydraulic heads for current climate conditions. The calibrated model was then used with three different climate scenarios to simulate surface flow and groundwater dynamics for the 2070 to 2100 period. Winter stream dischar...
Advances in Geosciences, 2010
Future climate changes might have some impacts on catchment hydrology. An assessment of such impacts on e.g. ground water recharge is required to derive adaptation strategies for future water resources management. The main objective of our study was an analysis of three different regional climate change scenarios for a catchment with an area of 2415 km 2 located in the Northeastern German lowlands. These data sets consist of the STAR-scenario with a time period 1951-2055, the WettReg-scenario covering the period 1961-2100 and the grid based REMO-scenario for the time span 1950-2100. All three data sets are based on the SRES scenario A1B of the IPCC. In our analysis, we compared the meteorological data for the control period obtained from the regional climate change scenarios with corresponding data measured at meteorological stations in the catchment. The results of this analysis indicated, that there are high differences between the different regional climate change scenarios regarding the temporal dynamics and the amount of precipitation. In addition, we applied a water balance model using input data obtained from the different climate change scenarios and analyzed the impact of these different input data on the model output groundwater recharge. The results of our study indicated, that these regional climate change scenarios due to the uncertainties in the projections of precipitation show only a limited suitability for hydrologic impact analysis used for the establishment of future concrete water management procedures in their present state.
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Hydrological Sciences Journal, 1991
The long term hydrological response of a medium-sized mountainous catchment to climate changes has been examined, The climate changes were represented by a set of hypothetical scenarios of temperature increases coupled with precipitation and potential évapotranspiration changes. Snow accumulation and ablation, plus runoff from the study catchment (the Mesochora catchment in central Greece) were simulated under present (historical) and altered climate conditions using the US National Weather Service snowmelt and soil moisture accounting models. The results of this research obtained through alternative scenarios suggest strongly that all the hypothetical climate change scenarios would cause major decreases in winter snow accumulation and hence increases in winter runoff, as well as decreases in spring and summer runoff. The simulated changes in annual runoff were minor compared with the changes in the monthly distribution of runoff. Attendant changes in the monthly distribution of soil moisture and actual évapotranspiration would also occur. Such hydrological results would have significant implications on future water resources design and management.