Navigating China's Gray Zone Strategy in the South China Sea (original) (raw)

Between the United States and China: Philippines foreign policy in the case of South China Sea

2021

In 2016 there were several events that could change the Philippines' foreign policy in Southeast Asia. The tensions in the South China Sea were growing since several parties claimed the sea, and there were new presidents elected in the Philippines and the United States. This thesis focuses on the Philippines' strategy in this complicated geopolitical situation between the two great powers, the United States of America and China. The aim of this thesis was to identify how the Philippines respond to the changing geopolitical dynamics in the region after 2016 in the case of the South China Sea and which strategy they are using in their actions. The author explains the situation in the region, defines a small state, and then discusses the potential strategies a small state has in the case. The author set a hypothesis that the Philippines mainly use a hedging strategy to respond to the region's geopolitical dynamics. To test the hypothesis, the author conducted content analys...

Facing China: Crises or Peaceful Coexistence in the South China Sea

Revised edition: Due to serious technical mistakes during the editing-process, the original version of this PRIF-Report contained numerous errors distorting the meaning of the text. These mistakes have been corrected in the revised edition. Content: The past few years are characterized by increased Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea that resulted in various confrontations with the Philippines and Vietnam and an enhanced involvement of the United States. The core question is what other states, especially China‘s adversaries, can do, to evade spirals of escalation without compromising their claims. This report compares the crisis-prone Sino-Philippines with the rather harmoni- ous Sino-Malaysian relations. It extends analysis backwards to the early days of Chinese assertiveness in the late 1980s. This allows the author to show that Chinese behavior in the territorial conflicts co-varies with the contender’s level of recognition of the benign Chinese concepts of national self and world order. Displaying respect towards China mitigates Chinese conflict behavior without compromising the opponent’s territorial claims.

Unpacking the Philippines’ 2018 National Security Strategy: Examining the Case of the South China Sea Dispute

NDCP Executive Policy Brief, 2018

The aim of this policy brief is to discuss how the National Security Strategy (NSS) seeks to promote Philippine national security interests in the South China Sea (SCS). In particular, this paper seeks to answer the following questions: 1) How does the NSS perceive the regional security environment of the Indo-Asia-Pacific particularly, with respect to the SCS?; 2) How does the NSS articulate Philippine national security interests in the SCS and what are the identified courses of action to pursue such interests?; and 3) What are the challenges in promoting Philippine interests in the SCS?

PRC Assertiveness in the South China Sea: Measuring Continuity and Change, 1970-2015

International Security, 2021

Why has the People's Republic of China (PRC) courted international opprobrium, alarmed its neighbors, and risked military conºict in pursuit of its claims covering vast areas of the South China Sea? Despite its central importance to understanding the security of the world's most economically vibrant region in the twenty-ªrst century, the question has remained unresolved. Many realist observers ªnd China's regional expansion unsurprising in light of its growing relative material power, but others identify the maritime policy change instead with unfavorable developments for Beijing. 1 Area specialists focusing on domestic political factors are similarly divided, with some pointing to bottom-up challenges to the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from rising popular nationalism, and others arguing that elite vested interests or overzealous frontline agencies lie behind the maritime expansion. 2 Proponents of

Considering a Long-Term U.S. Policy Strategy to PRC Challenges in the South China Sea - April 2016

As we approach the remainder of 2016 – the last year of the Obama presidency – U.S. allies and partners across Asia will continue to look to U.S. leadership and guidance on regional security matters. Obama’s two terms saw a considerable increase in U.S. attention to the region, including greater U.S. force deployment, an emphasis on a rules-based international order, liberalized trade regimes through the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and cooperation with allies such as Japan, Korea, and Australia, as well as emerging partners such as Singapore, India, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia. These political developments are set against a backdrop of security challenges in Asia, including maritime disputes and North Korean provocations, as well as emerging asymmetric threats such as terrorism, cyber espionage, and natural disasters. Yet while sustained DPRK concerns and asymmetric challenges monopolize political bandwidth, the South China Sea (SCS) continues to be Asia’s preeminent “simmering cauldron” – a phrase aptly captured by Robert Kaplan. This security paradigm is driven largely by China’s non-reconciliatory approach to land reclamation, energy exploration, force deployment, and (as a result) increasing de facto territorial hegemony in the South China Sea. As the Obama administration comes to a close and the United States is embroiled in a contentious election, U.S. officials must anticipate that China will test U.S. resolve in this period of political transition to press its claims. To navigate this, there must be a fundamental U.S. survey of dynamics in the South China Sea – an effort that predicates any institutionalized U.S. strategy to reassure claimants and neutralize destabilizing PLA actions. This essay therefore provides a survey of China’s recent actions in the South China Sea, examining their motives and drivers, and recommends discrete U.S. policies to mitigate these Chinese actions through the years ahead.