RAINFALL TREND ANALYSIS USING NON PARAMETRIC TEST AND SATELLITE DATA OF PAURI GARHWAL DISTRICT OF UTTARAKHAND, INDIA (original) (raw)
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Analysis and Interpretation of Rainfall Trend using Mann- Kendall's and Sen's Slope Method
Indian Ecological Society, 2021
This study aimed at comprehensive framework to investigate the variability and trends in the daily, seasonal and annual precipitation using parametric and non-parametric tests. The daily and seasonal trends of rainfall were analyzed from the IMD data of 1981-2016. The study displays daily, seasonal and annual trend patterns and magnitude of trend slope in precipitation data series for different regions of Andhra Pradesh. The procedures that are adopted to identify the presence of trend are Mann-Kendall and Sen's estimator of slope which are carried out at statistical significance at 95% level of confidence. The month to month precipitation information were utilized to process the yearly and regular time arrangement. The adjustment in extent for a period arrangement is resolved utilizing a nonparametric technique (Sen's estimator) and the factual noteworthiness is breaking down through Mann-Kendall (MK) test.
2021
1Assistant Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, PESCE, Mandya, Karnataka, India 2Former Associate Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, PESCE, Mandya, Karnataka, India 3U.G. Student, Dept. of Civil Engineering, PESCE, Mandya, Karnataka, India ---------------------------------------------------------------------***---------------------------------------------------------------------Abstract Climatic variability particularly rainfall and temperature has received a greater attention throughout the world. Climate change and its variability in the climatic parameters may adversely affect the agriculture sector and water resources of agrarian country like India. The research on change of rainfall, occurrence and its allocation are the most significant way for sustainable water resource management and food security. Hence an understanding of rainfall patterns in the changing environment will help in better decision making and improving the adopting of the communities to sustain the extr...
Current Science
In this study, we analysed the variability and trends in annual as well as seasonal rainfall in the seven states of North East India for the period 1901-2020, using non-parametric tests like Mann-Kendall, trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall, modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), as well as using the innovative trend analysis (ITA). The study revealed the variabilities in annual and seasonal rainfall in these seven states. In most cases, the results of all the tests were identical. However, significant differences were observed in the case of post-monsoon rainfall of Assam and Meghalaya, pre-monsoon rainfall of Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Tripura, as well as in winter rainfall of Arunachal Pradesh and monsoon rainfall of Tripura. Compared to the other states of NE India and other tests, ITA detected no significant annual trend for Tripura; however, the winter season exhibited a decreasing trend. It was observed that only the MMK test could predict such changes in rainfall distribution across seasons to a certain extent at varying significance levels in comparison to the other three methods. Since these states are vulnerable to water-related disasters, this study could help policymakers arrive at valuable climatic and water resource management decisions.
IRJET, 2021
Climatic variability particularly rainfall and temperature has received a greater attention throughout the world. Climate change and its variability in the climatic parameters may adversely affect the agriculture sector and water resources of agrarian country like India. The research on change of rainfall, occurrence and its allocation are the most significant way for sustainable water resource management and food security. Hence an understanding of rainfall patterns in the changing environment will help in better decision making and improving the adopting of the communities to sustain the extreme weather. The study is aimed at investigating Monotonic trends at local scale levels for different seasons, as the climate change is more pronounced at the local scale. In this study, trend analysis has been carried out for Mandya district, Karnataka by considering 21 stations spread across the district for a period 1991-2000. Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were employed to detect the trend and trend magnitude respectively at a significance level of 5%. The paper showcases that, the annual and monsoon season trend depicts no trend at a significance level of 5%. However, significant positive trends were observed at stations Akkihebbalu, Basaralu, Hanakere, Kaudle, Mandya and V C Farm during pre-monsoon season indicating special attention to be addressed during land preparation and other operations before monsoon season commences in the selected study area.
Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India
2012
This article aims to review studies pertaining to trends in rainfall, rainy days and temperature over India. Sen's non-parametric estimator of slope has been frequently used to estimate the magnitude of trend, whose statistical significance was assessed by the Mann–Kendall test. Spatial units for trend analysis vary from station data to sub-division to sub-basin/river basins. There are differences in the results of the various studies, and a clear and consistent picture of rainfall trend has not emerged.
Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry, 2020
The study has been carried out to investigate and assess the significance of the potential trend of rainfall and rainy days over the Tasgaon tahsil of Sangli district of Maharashtra. In this study, trend analysis has been carried out on annual, seasonal and monthly basis using the data period between 1961 to 2018 for rainfall and rainy days. Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimate test were applied to identify the existing trend direction and Sen’s slope estimator test were used to detect the trend direction and magnitude of change over time. The test results showed decreasing rainfall and rainy days trend over the Tasgaon tahsil for annual, seasonal and monthly (May to November) time series.
Journal of Agriculture Research and Technology, 2022
The rainfall and rainy days trend is very crucial for the economic development and hydrological planning for the country. Trend is present when a time series exhibits steady upward growth or a downward decline, at least over successive time periods. The major challenge today is to formulate and implement a rational methodology for managing the available water resources in the areas. Therefore, determination and identification of trends of precipitation is a key. So, the trend analysis of rainfall and rainy days will be useful to construct the future scenario of water availability and useful for forecasting the future temporal and spatial availability of water. Sangli district is located in the western part of Maharashtra. It is situated between the 16°5N to 17°33N latitude and 73°41E to 75°41E longitudinal. The climate of Sangli district is generally hot and dry. The average annual rainfall of Sangli district is 603 mm with 41 rainy days (Wale, 2019). In the district, June to September is the months of normal rainy season. Sangli district contribute to 2.5 per cent of state geographical area (7.76 Lakh ha), gross cropped area and net cropped area was 6.49 Lakh ha and 5.57 Lakh ha. (Anonymous, 2015). One-third of the district receives assured rainfall, while the rest has to face the vagaries of the monsoon. (Anonymous, 2013). Trend analysis of rainfall time series includes determination of increasing and decreasing trend and magnitude of trend and its statistical significance (Jain and Kumar, 2012) by using parametric and non-parametric statistical methods. Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945 and Kendall, 1975) is one of the best methods amongst them, which is preferred by various researchers (Jain and Kumar, 2012). Various studies were carried out to determine the trend of rainfall (Gedefaw, M.
Trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall to climate variability in North-East region of India
Global warming, climate change and its consequences are major threat for the global agriculture. The agriculture in the NorthEast region of India is supposed to more in danger due to its topographic features. Agriculture in the state of Arunachal Pradesh is dependent on rainfall and variability in rainfall due to climate change is expected to threaten the food production in future. This study examines the impact of climate change on rainfall using the trend analysis technique for the four districts of Arunachal Pradesh. For this purpose temporal trends in annual and seasonal rainfall were detected using nonparametric Mann-Kendall test at 5% significance level. The daily time series rainfall data for the period 1971-2007 were analyzed statistically for each district separately. The results of Mann Kendall test showed decreasing trend in annual mean rainfall in east Siang, upper Siang and lowers Dibang valley and no trend in the west Siang district over the period of 1971-2007. In cas...
Rainfall Trend Analysis in Tehsils of Palghar District, Maharashtra State, India
IJRASET , 2021
A detailed trend analysis of monthly and annual rainfall for Tehsils of Palghar district were carried out using 22 years (1998-2019) daily rainfall data taken from Department of Agriculture, Maharashtra State. In this study, to analyse the trend, the non-parametric test (Mann-Kendall test) and Sen's slope estimator were used. For developing a functional relationship between variables, a linear trend of rainfall data for the studied area evaluated using the linear regression. The results showed that the trend analysis of monthly rainfall has a varied trend of rainfall in the rainy months in tehsil of Palghar District. The month of July significant increasing trend was observed at Jawhar (42.91 mm/year), Vikramgad (29.90 mm/year), Wada (24.06 mm/year), Talasari (31.36 mm/year), Palghar (25.299 mm/year), Mokhada (29.96 mm/year) and Dahanu (38.14 mm/year), whereas non-significant increasing trend 2.76 mm/year was observed at Vasai tehsil of Palghar District during 1998-2019. The month of June, August, September and October rainfall did not show any significant trend in tehsil of Palghar District and non significant decreasing as well as non significant increasing trend was observed in tehsil of Palghar District during 1998-2019. The result concluded that annual rainfall trend was increased in