The Nottingham Prognostic Index applied to 9,149 patients from the studies of the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group (DBCG) (original) (raw)
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A statistical approach to an individualized prognostic index (IPI) for breast cancer survivability
Cancer, 1983
The authors present 61 1 and 262 case histories of patients with breast cancer, studied 5 and 10 years after mastectomy, respectively; 27 clinical and 10 histologic parameters were considered for the statistical evaluation, in order to define an Individualized Prognostic Index (IPI) for breast cancer survivability. The probability of survival was estimated by a Bayesian formula using selected prognostic parameters, these parameters were placed in order of discriminant resolution and, for the calculation of the IPI, were selected according to their importance, as it follows: 5 years after surgery: percent affected nodules, dermal infiltration, TNM phase, Scarff-Bloom index and evolutive outbreak (PEV); 10 years after surgery: TNM phase, dermal infiltration, percent affected nodules and ScarfT-Bloom index. The current information considers that out of several parameters, the selected prognostic parameters used for the IPI are sufficient to establish probability tests and a reliable estimation of life expectancy following breast cancer surgery. Cancer 52:728-736, 1983. FTHE VARIOUS HUMAN TUMORS, carcinoma of the 0 mammary gland is one of the most complex in terms of its obscure ethiopathogenia, the difficulty of making an early diagnosis, and the diversity of classifications and possible therapies. Although the therapeutical results are quite acceptable,'-6 they are still subject to a great number of individual variants for each patient. The TNM classification has been of great use in establishing a set of standards of diagnosis and treatment for each Nevertheless, significant differences arise in some individual responses-even within the same group-to the extent of certain contradictions arising as to the prognostic evaluation ofthe results obtained by different working group^.'-^^"'-^^ Fo r this reason, different authors have been looking for parameters other than those of the TNM that, in an isolated or more general way, could make a prognosis as to the evolution of the neoplasm. These factors have been basically his-t~l o g i c , '~-'~ taken singly or in conjunction clinially,^'-^^ and, more recently, are of biological and hor
A prognostic index for operable, node-negative breast cancer
British journal of cancer, 2004
Clinical data and samples from patients diagnosed, more than 10 years previously, with operable node-negative breast cancer (participants in the Scottish Adjuvant Tamoxifen trial), were revisited. Cases with two distinct categories of outcome were selected; more than 10 years disease-free survival ('good outcome') or distant relapse within 6 years of diagnosis ('poor outcome'). An initial set of cases was analysed for a range of putative prognostic markers and a prognostic index, distinguishing the two outcome categories, was calculated. This index was then validated by testing its predictive power on a second, independent set of cases. A combination of histological grade plus immunochemical staining for BCL-2, p27 and Cyclin D1, generated a useful prognostic index for tamoxifen-treated patients but not for those treated by surgery alone. The value of the index was confirmed in a second set of tamoxifen-treated, early stage breast cancers. Overall, it correctly predi...
Ascertaining Prognosis for Breast Cancer in Node-Negative Patients with Innovative Survival Analysis
The Breast Journal, 2006
Clinical decisions to administer adjuvant systemic therapy to women with early breast cancer require knowledge about baseline prognosis, which is only assessable in the absence of such adjuvant treatment, which most patients currently do receive. The Cox model is the standard tool for assessing the effect of prognostic factors; however, there may be substantive differences in the estimated prognosis obtained by the Cox model rather than a log-normal model. For more than 50 years, clinical breast cancer data for cohorts of patients have supported the choice of a log-normal model. The prognostic impact of model type is examined here for a cohort of breast cancer patients, only 7% of whom received adjuvant systemic therapy. We quantitated prognosis utilizing Kaplan-Meier, Cox, and log-normal survival analyses for 415 consecutive T1-T3, M0, histologically node-negative patients who were operated on for primary breast cancer at Women's College Hospital between 1977 and 1986. Recurrence outside the breast for disease-free interval (DFI) and breast cancer death for disease-specific survival (DSS) were the events of interest. The patient follow-up for these investigations was 96% complete: a median 8 years for those surviving. Factors used in these investigations were age, weight, tumor size, histology, tumor grade, nuclear grade, lymphovascular invasion, estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), combined ER / PR receptor, overexpression of neu oncoprotein, DNA ploidy, S-phase, and adjuvant therapy. In our study we found evidence against the Cox assumption of proportional hazards, which is not an assumption for the log-normal approach. We identified patients with greater than 96% and others with less than 40% DSS at 10 years. The difference in prognosis determined by using the Cox versus the log-normal model ranged for DFI from 1.2% to 8.1%, and for DSS from 0.4% to 6.2%; interestingly, the difference was more substantial for patients with a high risk of recurrence or death from breast cancer. Estimated prognoses may differ substantially by survival analysis model type, by amounts that might affect patient management, and we think that the log-normal model has a major advantage over the Cox model for survival analysis.
Medical Science Monitor
Departmental sources Background: We compared pathological prognostic stage (PPS) with anatomic stage (AS) groups according to the updated version of breast cancer staging of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8 th Edition. Material/Methods: We evaluated 353 breast cancer patients initially treated with surgery. AS and PPS were performed by evaluating the pathological data of the patients according to the AJCC 8 th Edition breast cancer updated version. Stages and survival rates between the 2 staging systems were evaluated and compared. Disease-free survival (DFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were calculated according to both staging systems using Kaplan-Meier test. After the PPS change was made in each AS group, 10-year DFS and 10-year DSS of the changed groups were compared using the chi-square test. Results: The median follow-up was 114 months and the median age was 48 years. In 192 (54.4%) patients the stage change. The most significant change was 1-level downstaging in 70 (22.4%) patients, and 2-levels downstaging in 78 (22.1%) patients. Five-year DFS, 10-year DFS, 5-year DSS rate, and 10-year DSS were 86.3%, 80.3%, 93.8%, and 84.1%, respectively. The PPS system was found to provide better prognostic information when the patients with AS IIB and IIIA groups were compared according to the PPS. Conclusions: According to the updated version of the AJCC 8 th Edition, half of our patients had stage change when they were evaluated according to AS and PPS system. PPS gives better information about prognosis than does AS.
Indian Journal of Pathology and Microbiology, 2009
Introduction: Breast carcinoma is the most common malignant tumor and the leading cause of cancer death in women. In western countries, a sharp increase in the detection of breast carcinoma, largely due to widespread use of mammography, has recently led to a fall in breast cancer mortality. This, however, is not true for less developed countries, in which mortality continues to rise. Objective: The aim of this study was to acquire information about the extent and spread of breast carcinoma in our patients by grading the tumors, determining the tumor size, and axillary lymph node status, staging of the tumors and Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) scoring on the available material. Materials and Methods: One hundred and twenty consecutive mastectomy specimens with axillary lymph node sampling removed for breast carcinoma and received in the section of histopathology, Aga Khan University, in the year 2005, were included in the study. Standard protocols were used for the processing of the specimens, and reporting was done using a standard format incorporating all relevant tumor parameters. NPI was applied to the cases. Results: Out of the 120 cases, 5 (4.17) were grade 1, 91 (75.83) were grade 2, and 24 (20%) were grade 3. Also, 9 cases (7.5%) were T1 (4 were T1b, and 5 were T1c); 53 (44.16%) were T2; 50 (41.66%) were T3; and 8 (6.66%) were T4. Axillary lymph nodes were available in 107 cases. In 13 cases, no lymph nodes were recovered. Out of 107 cases 27 (25.23%) lymph nodes were negative for metastases pN0; 29 (27.10%) cases were pN1; 26 (24.30) were pN2; and 25 cases (23.36%) were pN3. Extranodal spread was present in 56 (70%) out of the 80 cases in which lymph nodes were positive. The average microscopic size of nodal metastasis was 1.7 cms. Significant statistical association was found between the number of positive nodes and perinodal extension (P = 0.001). Tumor necrosis was present in 76 out of 120 cases (63.33%). Vascular invasion was present in 43 out of 120 cases (35.83%). NPI scores were greater than 5.4 in 60 out of 107 cases (56.1%) indicating poor prognosis. Conclusion: The large majority of the cases were grade 2 tumors. Most cases (all grades) were T2 or T3, and were axillary lymph node positive. Large majority of cases with nodel metastases showed extra nodal spread. The majority of patients had NPI scores greater than 5.4 indicating poor prognosis. Significant statistical association was found between the number of positive nodes and perinodal extension (P = 0.001). The findings show extensive and advanced disease trends in our patients.
BMC Cancer, 2019
Background: Breast cancer with pathological non-complete response (non-pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) has a worse prognosis. Despite Neo-Bioscore has been validated as an independent prognostic model for breast cancer submitted to NAC, non-pCR carcinoma was not assessed in this setting. Methods: This is a retrospective trial that included women with localized breast cancer who underwent NAC and had non-pCR carcinoma in surgical specimen between 01/01/2013 to 12/31/2015 with a three-year follow-up. Survival analysis was performed by Kaplan-Meier estimator and hazard ratio (HR) set by log-rank test for the primary and secondary endpoints, respectively Disease-Free Survival (DFS) and Overall Survival (OS). According to Neo-Bioscore, the proposed prognostic model named Clustered Neo-Bioscore was classified into low (0-3), low-intermediate (4-5), high-intermediate (6) and high (7) risk. The prognostic accuracy for recurrence risk was assessed by time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (time-ROC) methodology. Multivariate Cox regression assessed the menopausal status, histological grade, Ki-67, estrogen receptor, HER2, tumor subtype, pathological and clinical stages. Confidence interval at 95% (CI95%) and statistical significance at set 2-sided p-value less than 0.05 were adopted. Results: Among the 310 women enrolled, 267 patients (86.2%) had non-pCR carcinoma presenting size T3/T4 (63.3%), node-positive axilla (74.9%), stage III (62.9%), Ki-67 ≥ 20% (71.9%) and non-luminal A (78.3%). Non-pCR carcinoma presented worse DFS-3y (HR = 3.88, CI95% = 1.18-11.95) but not OS-3y (HR = 2.73, CI95% = 0.66-11.40). Clustered Neo-Bioscore discerned the recurrence risk for non-pCR carcinoma: low (DFS-3y = 0.86; baseline), low-intermediate (DFS-3y = 0.70; HR = 2.61), high-intermediate (DFS-3y = 0.13, HR = 14.05), and high (DFS-3y = not achieved; HR = 22.19). The prognostic accuracy was similar between Clustered Neo-Bioscore and Neo-Bioscore (0.76 vs 0.78, p > 0.05). Triplenegative subtype (HR = 3.6, CI95% = 1.19-10.92) and pathological stages II (HR = 5.35, CI95% = 1.19-24.01) and III (HR = 6.56, CI95% = 1.29-33.32) were prognoses for low-intermediate risk, whereas pathological stage III (HR = 13.0, CI95% = 1.60-106.10) was prognosis for low risk. Conclusions: Clustered Neo-Bioscore represents a novel prognostic model of non-pCR carcinoma undergoing NAC with a more simplified and appropriate score pattern in the assessment of prognostic factors.
Modern Pathology, 2004
Available results highlight the lack of good level of evidence studies on the pure prognostic value of histological grade. In the present study, the prognostic relevance of histological grade and of its three components, tubule formation, nuclear pleomorphism and mitotic count, was analyzed in a series of 372 patients with node-negative breast cancer treated with locoregional therapy alone until early relapse. Histological grade was determined blindly by two observers and discordance between evaluations was resolved after joint review using a multihead microscope. No relation was observed between histological grade and any of its three components and disease-free survival. Conversely, a significant relation was observed between histological grade and distant metastasis-free survival (at 6 years, 94, 86 and 76% for grades 1, 2 and 3, respectively, P ¼ 0.013) as well as overall survival (98, 90 and 86%, P ¼ 0.001). A breakdown analysis as a function of the three components showed that neither tubule formation nor nuclear pleomorphism was associated with prognosis, and only mitotic count strongly influenced both distant metastasis-free survival (91, 82 and 74%, P ¼ 0.014) and overall survival (97, 87 and 85%, P ¼ 0.011). Histological grade suffers from a much higher subjectivity than any other microscopic evaluation of biomarkers as it is the sum of three different morphological features. Within the Italian Network for Quality Assessment of Tumor Biomarkers program we observed that histological grade is an independent prognostic variable, but also that this role is ascribable only to the number of mitotic figures. In conclusion, due to the ever smaller size of diagnosed breast cancers, resulting in less cancer tissue for biofunctional and molecular analysis, mitotic count evaluated under strict quality control conditions seems to be an accurate and feasible prognostic variable.
Short-Term Prognostic Index for Breast Cancer: NPI or Lpi
Pathology research international, 2010
Axillary lymph node involvement is an important prognostic factor for breast cancer survival but is confounded by the number of nodes examined. We compare the performance of the log odds prognostic index (Lpi), using a ratio of the positive versus negative lymph nodes, with the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) for short-term breast cancer specific disease free survival. A total of 1818 operable breast cancer patients treated in the University Hospital of Leuven between 2000 and 2005 were included. The performance of the NPI and Lpi were compared on two levels: calibration and discrimination. The latter was evaluated using the concordance index (cindex), the number of patients in the extreme groups, and difference in event rates between these. The NPI had a significant higher cindex, but a significant lower percentage of patients in the extreme risk groups. After updating both indices, no significant differences between NPI and Lpi were noted.