Abstract: Oil: Are We Running Out? (original) (raw)

Predictions of imminent oil shortages have been made throughout the 20th century. Although all previous predictions have been false, in recent years a new generation of predictions based on the Hubbert model have become ascendant and attracted media attention. The Hubbert model assumes that a resource is limited and finite. Although conventional oil supplies are finite, it has proven difficult to estimate the size of the ultimate resource. Over the last 50 years estimates of the size of the world's conventional crude oil resources have increased faster than cumulative production. The estimated size of the ultimate resource base will continue to increase in the future as unconventional fossil fuels come on line. Oil production from Canadian tar sands has already begun.