Abstract: Oil: Are We Running Out? (original) (raw)
Change is coming faster than most can appreciate, much less plan for. As time passes, new technology has emerged and it has radically changed lifestyles. Other changes such as an increase in warming temperatures are already causing mass migrations and the displacement of ever-increasing populations into mega-cities. An important, but barely noticed change is that the fossil fuel industries (that have led the unprecedented economic growth and technical progress during the last 250 years) are starting to run out of affordable energy sources. The objective of this paper is to examine one of these industries: oil; and the possible changes to be seen in the next decade or two
The brink of oil and gas energy: a great loss?
2015
There are many persistent local and international conflicts in oil producing countries due to power struggles among the leaders, to have a total control on oil and gas supplies, etc. These conflicts have disrupted the oil and gas production and supplies which at one point saw the world?s oil price hit an all time high of US$147.27 on 11 July 2008. The high oil price was due to escalated demand than supply, and in reality there is no shortage of conventional oil and gas resources. In fact, the Earth has nearly 1.688 trillion barrels of proven crude oil, which will last 53.3 years at current rates of extraction. The problem lies in produceability and accessibility to those resources. Currently the oil and gas industry is facing a very challenging period with the world?s oil price has dropped sharply from above US$100 per barrel to US$50 per barrel as of 5 November 2015 due to the slowing demand from China, the United States of America, Japan, and Europe. As a result, many local and in...
Peak Oil: Assessment, Critique of the Current Solutions, and Proposition of Alternatives
Energy and Economy are tightly bound to each other, primarily due to physical reasons. Indeed, energy is the unit measuring the quantity of transformation in a system, and the economic activities transform resources into useful goods and services. Due to transport, oil is the ultimate source of energy for a globalised economy. In this context, the peak of oil, corresponding to the moment when the global oil production reaches a maximum, and then declines, might be a critical issue. This thesis studies what the European Commission might plan in this context. In a first chapter the expectable future of oil supply is exposed. It appears that the global oil production is likely to peak before the end of the current decade. Moreover, the conventional oil production peaked in 2006, and the European production peaked in 2000 (declined by 46% in 2011). Besides, the post-peak decline rate is around 6% per year, and at least 16 out of the 20 biggest oil fields have already passed their peak (these 20 fields represent 25% of the oil production). Then, the second chapter is dedicated to the impacts of an energy shortage on the socio-economic system, and to the solutions planned. Based on the academic literature, the impacts are assessed from historical events during which societies suffered from a huge energy crunch (North Korea and Cuba after the Soviet Union demise). Furthermore, the historical oil price is analysed, especially the price elasticity (based on empirical data from EIA and World Bank). It results that the volume of oil produced is almost unresponsive to the price since 2004-5. Moreover, based on the fiscal break-even of Saudi Arabia and on the carrying capacity of China, the range of future prices is [100;120] dollars per barrel, while the carrying capacity of western societies is around 90 dollars. Finally, the chapter discusses the technological solutions (liquid fuels production from coal, gas and biomass, mainly) and their limits. Apart from the negative impacts in terms of greenhouse gases and potential scarcities (lithium, lands, coal and gas), the most problematic limit is probably the EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested), which is decreasing. It means that the energy surplus available for the society is shrinking. An increasing amount of resources (energy included) is diverted for the sake of oil and gas industry. The last chapter describes the reasons why we cannot rely on decoupling and dematerialisation, to maintain economic growth while the energy supply diminishes. In particular, based on empirical data (World Bank and International Labour Organization) the absence of negative correlation between the energy consumption per capita and the share of labour force in services is evidenced. Besides, the decoupling effect has never been observed at the global scale, and the partial one is controversial. Consequently, another paradigm is proposed and briefly discussed, namely degrowth, based on the dedicated academic literature. Finally, the last section gathers some unusual proposals, which the European Commission might examine to cope with the Peak Oil, without economic growth.
Energy Policy, 2010
The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA"s World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided into 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletionrate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for the year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, analysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts.