Scenario Analysis in Water Resources Management Under Data Uncertainty (original) (raw)
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Sustainable Water Management in Uncertain Environments: A Case Example
Managing water in the face of uncertainty regarding future supplies and demands is a common challenge facing water resources systems planners and operators throughout much of the world. Infrastructure built and operated to provide reliable amounts of water where and when it is needed given this uncertainty have typically been planned and managed assuming that the climate providing the uncertain supply is a fixed or stationary stochastic process, one nicely quantified based on past hydrological and meteorological records. We know today that is not necessarily the case. We are also learning more about what makes the climate change over relatively long periods of time. Recent advances in recognizing global scale patterns in climate variability have made climate-based (rather than weather-based) hydrologic forecasts a useful input to the planning and in the operation of major water resource systems. This talk will discuss one such example. Managing water in the face of uncertainty regar...
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