Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Using Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data (original) (raw)
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Journal of Geophysical Research, 2010
This research addresses the 45th Weather Squadron's (45WS) need for improved guidance regarding lightning cessation at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (KSC). KSC's Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) network was the primary observational tool to investigate both cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning. Five statistical and empirical schemes were created from LDAR, sounding, and radar parameters derived from 116 storms. Four of the five schemes were unsuitable for operational use since lightning advisories would be canceled prematurely, leading to safety risks to personnel. These include a correlation and regression tree analysis, three variants of multiple linear regression, event time trending, and the time delay between the greatest height of the maximum dBZ value to the last flash. These schemes failed to adequately forecast the maximum interval, the greatest time between any two flashes in the storm. The majority of storms had a maximum interval less than 10 min, which biased the schemes toward small values. Success was achieved with the percentile method (PM) by separating the maximum interval into percentiles for the 100 dependent storms. PM provides additional confidence to the 45WS forecasters, and a modified version was incorporated into their forecast procedures starting in the summer of 2008. This inclusion has resulted in ∼5-10 min time savings. Last, an experimental regression variant scheme using non-real-time predictors produced precise results but prematurely ended advisories. This precision suggests that obtaining these parameters in real time may provide useful added information to the PM scheme.
A New Lightning Climatology for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center
2017
The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) is the U.S. Air Force unit that provides weather support to America’s space program at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The weather requirements of the space program are very stringent (Harms et al., 1999). In addition, the weather in east central Florida is very complex. This is especially true of summer thunderstorms and associated hazards. Central Florida is ‘Lightning Alley’, the area of highest lightning activity in the U.S. (Holle et al., 2016). The 45 WS uses a dense network of various weather sensors to meet the operational requirements in this environment (Roeder et al., 2003). A new lightning climatology was developed for CCAFS/KSC. The purpose is to update the previous lightning climatology to improve lightning risk assessment. In particular, a method was developed to infer a new parameter, the density of lightning ground contact points, which is ...
Weather and Forecasting, 1991
Since 1986, USAF forecasters at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) have had available a surface wind convergence technique for use during periods of convective development. In Florida during the summer, most of the thunderstorm development is forced by boundary-layer processes. Thc basic premise is that the life cycle of convection is reflected in the surface wind field beneath these storms. Therefore the monitoring of the local surface divergence/convergence fields can, in most cases, be used to determine timing, location, longevity, and specifically, the lightning hazards which accompany these thunderstorms. This study evaluates four years of monitoring thunderstorm development using surface wind convergence, particularly the average over the area. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is related in time and space with surface convergence for 346 days during the summers of 1987 through 1990 over the expanded wind network at KSC. The relationships are subdivided according to low-level wind flow and midlevel moisture patterns. Results show a one in three chance of CG lightning when a convergence event is identified. However, when there is no convergence, the chance of lightning is negligible. By itself, the convergence nowcasting technique is a very good simple technique. But when used with other observational platforms, the convective forecast is greatly enhanced. The 1990 deployment of a 5 dircction finder (DF) network with a positive flash option is also examined and related to surface convergence and convective development.
1991
Since 1986, USAF forecasters at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) have had available a surface wind convergence technique for use during periods of convective development. In Florida during the summer, most of the thunderstorm development is forced by boundary-layer processes. Thc basic premise is that the life cycle of convection is reflected in the surface wind field beneath these storms. Therefore the monitoring of the local surface divergence/convergence fields can, in most cases, be used to determine timing, location, longevity, and specifically, the lightning hazards which accompany these thunderstorms. This study evaluates four years of monitoring thunderstorm development using surface wind convergence, particularly the average over the area. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is related in time and space with surface convergence for 346 days during the summers of 1987 through 1990 over the expanded wind network at KSC. The relationships are subdivided according to low-level wind flow and midlevel moisture patterns. Results show a one in three chance of CG lightning when a convergence event is identified. However, when there is no convergence, the chance of lightning is negligible. By itself, the convergence nowcasting technique is a very good simple technique. But when used with other observational platforms, the convective forecast is greatly enhanced. The 1990 deployment of a 5 dircction finder (DF) network with a positive flash option is also examined and related to surface convergence and convective development.
Recent Improvements in Lightning Reporting at 45 TH Weather Squadron
2010
The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) is the United States (U.S.) Air Force unit that provides weather support to America’s space program at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and Patrick AFB (PAFB). The weather requirements of the space program are very stringent (Harms et al., 1999). In addition, the weather in east central Florida is very complex. This is especially true of summer thunderstorms and associated hazards. Central Florida is ‘Lightning Alley’, the area of highest lightning activity in the U.S. (Huffines and Orville, 1999). The 45 WS uses a dense network of various weather sensors to meet the operational requirements in this environment (Roeder et al., 2003). The 45 WS is especially well instrumented with lightning detection sensors. The Four Dimensional Lightning Surveillance System (4DLSS) (Murphy et al., 2008) included a major upgrade to the total lightning detection Lightning Detect...