Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Using Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data (original) (raw)

A new statistical lightning probability forecasting tool has been developed for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in collaboration with the Applied Meteorology Unit. This tool addresses the limitations of the existing Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI) by incorporating recent historical data and advanced statistical methods to generate daily lightning probability forecasts. Factors influencing lightning occurrence were analyzed, including meteorological variables such as the K-Index and Lifted Index, enhancing the accuracy and objectivity of forecasts for operational planning during Florida's warm season.