Consequences of habitat loss and change to populations of wintering migratory birds: predicting the local and global effects from studies of individuals (original) (raw)
Related papers
The Journal of Applied Ecology, 1995
1. This paper models empirically how habitat loss in winter might affect the size of the European population of oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus ostralegus. It explores how a density-dependent mortality rate in winter interacts with a density-dependent production rate in summer to determine the total, year-round population size following a loss of winter habitat which itself leads to intensified competition for food and hence increased winter mortality rates. 2. Simulations over a range of probable parameter values show that the density at which winter mortality becomes density-dependent, cW, simply determines the point at which population size is affected as habitat is gradually removed. The population is affected sooner in the more widely fluctuating Continental subpopulations than in the less variable Atlantic subpopulations. 3. Once winter density reaches cW, the consequences depend on the slope, bW, of the density-dependent winter mortality function. In all subpopulations, the reduction in population size increases sharply as bW increases, but only at low values; above a certain level, further increases in bW make less difference. Because of their higher reproductive rate, inland subpopulations are initially less affected by winter habitat loss than coastal subpopulations. These conclusions are robust over a range of assumptions about competition for territories in summer and age difference in mortality in winter. 4. Adding density-dependent fledging success to the basic model reduces the effect of winter habitat loss on population size, but only when low proportions of the habitat are removed. A higher mortality rate in females, whether only in postfledging young birds or in birds of all ages, makes little additional difference to the population consequences of habitat loss. 5. Field studies on winter habitat loss in migratory bird populations should first test whether density has already reached the critical level, cW; i.e. whether some birds already die of food competition. The parameter bW should then be estimated to determine whether its probable value lies in the range within which predictions are sensitive or insensitive to its precise value. Whether the summer density-dependent functions are linear or curvilinear needs also to be explored, as does the effect of interactions between subpopulations which have different fledgling production rates but share the same winter habitat.
2009
Animals facing partial habitat loss can try to survive in the remaining habitat or emigrate. Effects on survival and movements should be studied simultaneously since survival rates may be underestimated if emigrants are not considered, and since emigrants may experience reduced survival. 2. We analysed movements and survival of adult wintering oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus in response to the 1986-1987 partial closure of the Oosterschelde in the Dutch Delta. This reduced by one-third the tidal area of this major European wintering area for waders. 3. We developed a novel variant of a multistate capture-recapture model allowing simultaneous estimation of survival and movement between sites using a mixture of data (live recaptures and dead recoveries). We used a two-step process, first estimating movements between sites followed by site-specific survival rates. 4. Most birds were faithful to their ringing site. Winter survival was negatively affected by winter severity and was lowest among birds changing wintering site (i.e. moving outside of the Oosterschelde). 5. During mild winters, survival rates were very high, and similar to before the closure in both changed and unchanged sectors of the Oosterschelde. However, the combined effect of habitat loss with severe winters decreased the survival of birds from changed sectors and induced emigration. 6. The coastal engineering project coincided with three severe winters and high food stock, making assessment of its effects difficult. However, the habitat loss seems to have had less impact on adult survival and movements than did winter severity. 7. Synthesis and applications . Human-induced habitat change may result in population decline through costly emigration or reduced survival or reproduction of individuals that stay. Long-term monitoring of marked individuals helps to understand how populations respond to environmental change, but site-specific survival and movement rates should be integrated in the same model in order to maximize the information yield. Our modelling approach facilitates this because it allows the inclusion of recoveries from outside the study area.
Journal of Applied Ecology, 2003
The debate over the interaction between shellfishing and shorebirds is long-running. Behaviour-based models predict how animal populations are influenced by environmental change from the behavioural responses of individual animals to this change. These models are a potential tool for addressing shellfishery problems, but to be of value they must produce reliable predictions using data that are readily available or can be collected relatively quickly. 2. We parameterized a behaviour-based model for the oystercatcher population of the Wash, UK, for 1990-99 using data from shellfishery (mussels and cockles), shorebird and climate monitoring schemes. During the 1990s the overwinter mortality rates of Wash oystercatchers varied widely. The model correctly identified the years in which the observed overwinter mortality was either low (1-2%) or high (10-26%) from annual variation in the food supply, oystercatcher population size and temperature. 3. Many oystercatchers were observed and predicted to die when only a fraction of the available food was consumed. Within the model at least, this was because interference competition excluded the least dominant birds from part of the food supply and the least efficient foragers died before the food supply was fully depleted. A simplified model, which excluded interference and individual variation, incorrectly predicted that all birds survived in all years. Models that exclude these two components of behaviour will tend to underestimate the effect of mussel and cockle food shortage on oystercatchers. Shellfishery management based on such predictions may cause high oystercatcher mortality rates even though enough food would appear to be reserved for the birds. 4. Synthesis and applications. This study shows how a behaviour-based model can be parameterized and predict annual variation in oystercatcher mortality using data routinely collected from the Wash. The principle on which the model is based, that animals behave in order to maximize their chances of survival and reproduction, applies to any system, and the shellfishery, bird and climate data used to parameterize the model are widely available. The model can be used to advise how to manage shellfisheries, by predicting the proportion of the stock that needs to remain unfished in order to maintain low oystercatcher mortality rates.
Journal of Applied Ecology, 2001
1. Human interests often conflict with those of wildlife. In the coastal zone humans often exploit shellfish populations that would otherwise provide food for populations of shorebirds (Charadrii). There has been considerable debate on the consequences of shellfishing for the survival of shorebirds, and conversely the effects of shorebird predation on the shellfish stocks remaining for human exploitation. Until now, it has been difficult to determine the impact of current shellfishery practices on birds or to investigate how possible alternative policies would affect their survival and numbers. 2. One long-running contentious issue has been how to manage mussel Mytilus edulis and cockle Cerastoderma edule shellfisheries in a way that has least effect on a co-dependent shorebird, the oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus , which also consumes these shellfish. This study used a behaviour-based model to explore the effects that the present-day management regimes of a mussel (Exe estuary, UK) and a cockle (Burry inlet, UK) fishery have on the survival and numbers of overwintering oystercatchers. It also explored how alternative regimes might affect the birds. 3. The model includes depletion and disturbance as two possibly detrimental effects of shellfishing and some of the longer-term effects on shellfish stocks. Importantly, model birds respond to shellfishing in the same ways as real birds. They increase the time spent feeding at low tide and feed in fields and upshore areas at other times. When shellfishing removes the larger prey, birds eat more smaller prey. 4. The results suggest that, currently, neither shellfishery causes oystercatcher mortality to be higher than it would otherwise be in the absence of shellfishing; at present intensities, shellfishing does not significantly affect the birds. However, they also show that changes in management practices, such as increasing fishing effort, reducing the minimum size of shellfish collected or increasing the daily quota, can greatly affect oystercatcher mortality and population size, and that the detrimental effect of shellfishing can be greatly increased by periods of cold weather or when prey are unusually scarce. By providing quantitative predictions of bird survival and numbers of a range of alternative shellfishery management regimes, the model can guide management policy in these and other estuaries.
2012
Events happening in one season can aff ect life-history traits at (the) subsequent season(s) by carry-over eff ects. Wintering conditions are known to aff ect breeding success, but few studies have investigated carry-over eff ects on survival. h e Eurasian oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus is a coastal wader with sedentary populations at temperate sites and migratory populations in northern breeding grounds of Europe. We pooled continental European ringing-recovery datasets from 1975 to 2000 to estimate winter and summer survival rates of migrant and resident populations and to investigate long-term eff ects of winter habitat changes. During mild climatic periods, adults of both migratory and resident populations exhibited survival rates 2% lower in summer than in winter. Severe winters reduced survival rates (down to 25% reduction) and were often followed by a decline in survival during the following summer, via short-term carry-over eff ects. Habitat changes in the Dutch wintering grounds caused a reduction in food stocks, leading to reduced survival rates, particularly in young birds. h erefore, wintering habitat changes resulted in long-term ( Ͼ 10 years) 8.7 and 9.4% decrease in adult annual survival of migrant and resident populations respectively. Studying the impact of carry-over eff ects is crucial for understanding the life history of migratory birds and the development of conservation measures.
Depletion models can predict shorebird distribution at different spatial scales
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2001
Predicting the impact of habitat change on populations requires an understanding of the number of animals that a given area can support. Depletion models enable predictions of the numbers of individuals an area can support from prey density and predator searching e¤ciency and handling time. Depletion models have been successfully employed to predict patterns of abundance over small spatial scales, but most environmental change occurs over large spatial scales. We test the ability of depletion models to predict abundance at a range of scales with black-tailed godwits, Limosa limosa islandica. From the type II functional response of godwits to their prey, we calculated the handling time and searching e¤ciency associated with these prey. These were incorporated in a depletion model, together with the density of available prey determined from surveys, in order to predict godwit abundance. Tests of these predictions with Wetland Bird Survey data from the British Trust for Ornithology showed signi¢cant correlations between predicted and observed densities at three scales: within mud£ats, within estuaries and between estuaries. Depletion models can thus be powerful tools for predicting the population size that can be supported on sites at a range of scales. This greatly enhances our con¢dence in predictions of the consequences of environmental change.
Test of a Behavior-Based Individual-Based Model: Response of Shorebird Mortality to Habitat Loss
Ecological Applications, 2006
In behavior-based individual-based models (IBMs), demographic functions are emergent properties of the model and are not built into the model structure itself, as is the case with the more widely used demography-based IBMs. Our behavior-based IBM represents the physiology and behavioral decision making of individual animals and, from that, predicts how many survive the winter nonbreeding season, an important component of fitness. This paper provides the first test of such a model by predicting the change in winter mortality of a charadriid shorebird following removal of intertidal feeding habitat, the main effect of which was to increase bird density. After adjusting one calibration parameter to the level required to replicate the observed mortality rate before habitat loss, the model predicted that mortality would increase by 3.65%, which compares well with the observed increase of 3.17%. The implication that mortality was density-dependent was confirmed by predicting mortality over a range of bird densities. Further simulations showed that the density dependence was due to an increase in both interference and depletion competition as bird density increased. Other simulations suggested that an additional area of mudflat, equivalent to only 10% of the area that had been lost, would be needed by way of mitigation to return mortality to its original level. Being situated at a high shore level with the flow of water in and out impeded by inlet pipes, the mitigating mudflat would be accessible to birds when all mudflats in the estuary were covered at high tide, thus providing the birds with extra feeding time and not just a small replacement mudflat. Apart from providing the first, and confidence-raising, test of a behavior-based IBM, the results suggest (1) that the chosen calibration procedure was effective; (2) that where no new fieldwork is required, and despite being parameter rich, a behavior-based IBM can be parameterized quickly (few weeks), and thus cheaply, because so many of the parameter values can be obtained from the literature and are embedded in the model; and (3) that behaviorbased IBMs can be used to explore system behavior (e.g., the role of depletion competition and interference competition in density-dependent mortality).