Sino-US Competition in Asia Pacific through the Lens of Power Transition Theory (original) (raw)

United States, China and the power transition in the 21st century

Coleção Meira Mattos, 2021

The objective of this paper is to understand the upsurge in global conflicts, especially those involving the two main world powers: China and the United States of America. Aiming this, the methodology sought to put in perspective the theories regarding power transition and the geopolitical strategy of the two main (global) powers, China and USA. The objective was that, in this way, the article could indicate which one best fits the current context. The conclusion of the study was, on the other way of what is being defended by a great part of the specialists, the geopolitics of the 21st century is not reediting the bipolar system, lived during the Cold War, but going through a transition crisis, typical of contexts in which there is the dispute between hegemonic and other ascending power, as occurred during the decades before World War I. It remains to be seen how this dynamic is going to be processed in the 21st century.

Geopolitical Tug-of-War: The U.S.-China Rivalry for Dominance in Asia"

Geopolitics, 2024

The U.S.-China rivalry has emerged as a defining geopolitical issue in the 21st century, profoundly influencing the dynamics of Asia and the broader global order. This paper examines the historical context, economic competition, military strategic posturing, and technological advancements that characterize this rivalry. It explores key scenarios for the future-ranging from continued rivalry and potential cooperation to the risk of conflict-while emphasizing the critical role of diplomacy and multilateralism in maintaining stability. The analysis highlights the implications of the U.S.-China struggle for influence, considering how it shapes regional alliances, impacts international governance, and affects global peace and security. Ultimately, this study underscores the importance of understanding the complexities of this power struggle and its significance for the future of international relations.

The Narrowing US-China Power Gap and the China Threat Theory Transition and Stability in East Asian Regional Order

1970

This paper examines the Sino-American relations in the context of East Asian regional politics and regional order. More specifically the research addresses the questions: Does the power transition in East Asia associated with China's rise increase instability and balancing reaction of the region? How does Asian Pivot policy correlate to the regional reaction? The methodology involves case studies, comparative analysis, and statistical analysis of military expenditure and testing of Power Transition Theory. Chronologically the evolution of China's rise in the context of East Asian regional order is divided into three qualitatively different periods: 1991-2000. 2001-2010 and 2011-2013. The research identifies power transition and the regional leadership shift between Japan and China and its effects on the triangular Washington-Tokyo-Beijing relationship. Further a correlative pattern between China's rise and balancing strategy among the East Asian nations included in the case studies is developed. The effects of American rebalancing towards East Asia on the regional security environment are discussed.

SINO-US STRATEGIC INTERESTS IN POST COLD WAR ERA: A CASE STUDY OF ASIA-PACIFIC Researcher

SINO-US STRATEGIC INTERESTS IN POST COLD WAR ERA: A CASE STUDY OF ASIA-PACIFIC , 2019

The Asia-Pacific region blusters over half of the globe’s population and as residue of major powers centre including the main arteries of international economies like India, China and Australia etc. Due to its dynamism, there are plausible reasons that Asia-Pacific would emanate as the mother region in the coming days. Historically, with the concurrence of US, Japan and Australia, the concept of Asia-Pacific emerged which has legalized the US’ involvement in the issues related to East Asia. In plain term, Asia-Pacific region invokes Asia, Australia and West Coast of North America for its potentials to crop up as a galvanic force. Strategically, covering 22 percent of world land, Asia-Pacific is one of the important and eloquent regions that comprises three well developed Economic Powers of the World i.e. China, Japan and US. In addition, the region encompasses world's six largest ports and six vital Sea Lanes of Communications i.e. straits of Makassar, South China Sea, Lombok, Malacca, Ombai - Wetar and Sunda. Due to the US’ involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, Chinese managed to fill the vacuum and improve its economic ties with its Southeast Asian neighbours. China has the economic and technological influence all over the world with approximately 6 % average annual growth rate and an anticipation of taking over the economies of Japan and US by 2016 and 2039 respectively. However, rise of China coupled with its outreach to the global markets poses a consistent challenge to the US’ dominance hence emerges as a key challenge of 21st century to US’ interests at global and regional levels. As a result of which, US’ policy has been re-patronized towards Asia-Pacific for maintaining and expanding security network, strengthening the economic relations with her new and old allies and concurrently focuses on containment of China. In addition, US’ rebalancing has been claimed to strengthen bilateral security alliances with its allies, expanding trade and investment, promotion of democracy and human rights but China views the pivot as containment strategy and provocation act. Asia-pivot, a major shift in American policy shows that America has already started to calculate its options for dominating the region, both politically and militarily. US has been increasing its military components to reach to 60 % of total force ratio in Asia-Pacific region by 2020. In addition, US has been giving military assistances to Japan, Vietnam, Philippines etc in support of their territorial disputes against China. Amidst these developments, US-China engagement in Asia-Pacific and subsequent power transition have surfaced complications for regional states relations. Keeping in view the likely power transition between China and US, the difference in the Sino-US power potentials shall persist for coming 30 years but it will be reduced to some extent however, conflict cannot be completely ruled out as and when China attains power parity with the US. The rise of China was also examined in detail, providing an overview of how China’s role evolved in this regard and how the international community responded to this phenomenon. The perceptions of Sino-US relations are grounded in the intent and subjective understandings of each other’s interests and compulsions. These perceptions can easily determine how best the two states interpret each other’s actions in the wake of China’s rise and US Rebalancing of Asia-Pacific. In wholesome Sino-US cooperation in power transition and maintenance of friendly relations is the only option because why both the states should afford to engage themselves in conflict. In addition to adding new contribution to the existing body of literature, this research will help the readers to attain an understanding of the major issues of contention and convergence between China and US in the region. The contribution will be of significance nature in creating a framework within which Chinese and American regional policies can be understood and may serve as reference for policy makers and students of international politics.

Attracted by the Dragon or the Eagle? Will China or the U.S. Prevail in the Asia-Pacific in the 21st Century?: Review Essay of Enrico Fels Shifting Power in Asia-Pacific: The Rise of China, Sino-US Competition and Regional Middle Power Allegiance

Politeja: Global and Regional Security Challenges, 2017

Asia-Pacific region (or Indo-Pacific region) has been the most important and the most dynamic region of the world since the end of the Cold War at least. With ca. 2/3 of global population and 2/3 of Gross World Product, as well as crucial military and nuclear powers (United States, China, Russia, India, Pakistan and North Korea) it has attracted attention of both the public and scholars. Therefore analyses of strategic situation, security, international relations of the region have been numerous and written/edited by prominent scholars. They have encompassed either broader Asia-Pacific, Asia and, to lesser extent, Indo-Pacific region or focus on more specific issues. It is not possible to discuss the global body of the literature here, but this essay will briefly compare the work of Enrico Fels to other important publications in the field. Generally two categories were selected, firstly – publications dealing with the regional security or international relations in the region (however defined), secondly, analyzing Sino-American relations (sometimes in the context of broader Asia-Pacific policy of the U.S. government).

Dynamics of Geo-Strategic Environment in Asia-Pacific: The United States' Asia Pivot/Rebalancing Strategy & Chinese Response

The dynamics of current international strategic environment suggest that world politics is going to transform from uni-polarity to multi-polarity due to geo-strategic interaction among the states. Rise of China in Asia, a power house of economic activity, makes it imperative for the United States of America to take care of its strategic interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Most of the scholarly works are now a days focused upon the emergence of China as a great power and looking for the strategies about how to contain it. In this context, The White House came up with an 'Asia Pivot'/'Rebalancing Strategy' in 2011, which is focused but not limited to enhancing the US military presence in the Asia Pacific region by the end of this decade. On the other hand, China pursues an independent foreign policy based on objectives to ensure its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and economic development. However, Chinese response to the US Rebalancing Strategy has become a matter of quest for scholars in international politics. Some believe it to be a New Cold War between the two major powers in the 21 st century whereas others foresee the US politico-economic superiority in the long term. This paper, therefore, focuses on enquiring the Chinese response to the US Rebalancing strategy, and explores whether the two major powers are going for a risky military standoff or not.

U.S.-China Rivalry in Southeast Asia: Power Shift or Competitive Coexistence?

International Security

U.S.-China comprehensive competition is currently playing out on an increasingly global scale. The competition's primary locus is the vast Indo-Asia-Pacific region, and it is centered in Southeast Asia. The United States and China each possess comparative advantages in the region. Beijing's advantages are predominantly economic and diplomatic, whereas Washington's are more multifaceted. Although the Barack Obama administration's “pivot” significantly raised the U.S profile in Southeast Asia, China has also expanded its presence and influence. The two powers are increasingly locked in a classic strategic competition, but the pervasive media narrative in the region holds that China is gaining the upper hand. While this gravitation toward Beijing has become a popular meme, it is not empirically accurate—as the United States still possesses substantial overall advantages. Still, the regional balance is dynamic, and the United States needs to remain comprehensively engage...

The rise and fall of China's 'Peaceful Rise': Implications for US-China geopolitical competition in the Indo-Pacific [version 1; peer review: 2 approved

Stosunki Międzynarodowe, 2022

Strategic competition and rivalry between the United States and China has become a paradigm of international relations in the past decade. Central to this growing strategic distrust between Washington and Beijing is the tug of war between the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy and China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, the role of China's 'peaceful rise/ peaceful development' strategy and assertive nationalism characteristic of Chinese foreign policymaking in creating an atmosphere of tension and misunderstanding between Beijing and Washington have been largely overlooked. This paper, therefore, seeks to understand the relationship between the rise and fall of China's 'peaceful rise/peaceful development' concept, the emerging prominence of assertive nationalism in China's foreign policy making and a deteriorating US-China relations with deepening strategic mistrust between the two major powers through a comparativehistorical analysis of China's BRI and the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy. Rather than demonstrating China's commitment to its 'peaceful rise/ peaceful development' to the world, this paper argues that Beijing's offensive to defend China's national interests in a confrontational manner is an indication that an increasingly confident Chinese leadership no longer feels the need for reassuring the world that China's 'rise' is peaceful and non-threatening in nature. This could embolden Beijing to defy (if not explicitly challenge) the 'rules-based international order' upheld/ defended by Washington, thereby spelling the end of China's 'peaceful rise/peaceful development' strategy.