South Africa – Twenty years Into Democracy: The March to the 2014 Elections (original) (raw)
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Since the onset of democracy in 1994, South Africa’s elections have returned similar levels of support for the major political parties. However, aggregate electoral stability does not necessarily shed light on the complexities that affect party support and voting intentions; nor does it tell us much about the increasing impact of socio-economic change on long-standing cleavage and electoral behaviour. Using data from eight national public opinion surveys spanning 1994 to 2004, this paper looks at trends and patterns in partisanship over time, explores changes to the demographic support bases of parties and the motivations of South African voters and finally reflects on the results of the 2006 municipal elections, which are compared to overall trends in party support. This paper finds that dramatic socio-economic changes do not seem to have impacted heavily on the social composition of the ANC’s support base. There is little or no shift of allegiance across party lines by racial and ...
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