Antifragile Criticality of Complex Intelligent Strategic Systems -A Framework for Thinking (original) (raw)

The Complex Intelligent Strategic Systems (CISS) are emerging in the Sixth Wave of Innovation (years 2020-2045). Discovering, defining, describing, designing, developing, deploying, and deducing (7Ds) of CISS will have unprecedented demands, stresses, unknowable future impacts and failure potentials. Increasingly CISS will be safety, security, business or mission critical. CISS have substantial decentralization, higher embedded/ambient algorithmic intelligence, inherently conflicting, unknowable and diverse operational needs and requirements, continuous evolution, deployment and learning; heterogeneous, inconsistent, and changing elements and erosion of people-system boundary. We propose that antifragile mechanisms should be conceived, designed and built into these systems ab-initio. CISS lifecycle aspects including Value, Inventiveness, Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T), Computational Emergence, multi-level Design, Computational Engineering, Adaptive System Infrastructure, Adaptable and Predictable System Quality-need an integrative thinking framework. Classical thinking dimensions-Analytical, Logical, Value, Inventive, and Systems thinking (ALVIS) need to be synergized with the sixth wave of innovation dimensions of Scale, Computational, Algorithmic and Network (SCAN) thinking. We also speculate the emergence of a need of Quantum and Nano (QN) thinking within this decade. We propose and describe ALVIS-SCAN-QN thinking framework for 7Ds of CISS for achieving antifragile criticality (AFC).