Philippine Foreign Policy and the Complexities of Cross-Strait Relations (original) (raw)
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This article examines how two Philippine presidents took into account the ongoing geo-strategic competition between the U.S. and China. At the start of his sixyear term, President Benigno Aquino III became concerned that China’s maritime expansion threatened the Philippines’ territorial rights over its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea. He then pursued a balancing policy towards China’s maritime expansion into this area. Aquino pursued this policy as a reaction to China’s naval expansion but also considered the Obama Administration’s strategic rebalancing to Asia. President Rodrigo Duterte, however, is unraveling his predecessor’s geopolitical agenda in the South China Sea. Duterte has pursued an appeasement policy on China to take advantage of Beijing’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. Strategically, President Duterte has shown a sensitivity to Chinese security interests. In conclusion, both Filipino presidents, in crafting their respective foreign policies, have taken into account the geopolitical developments in the Indo-Pacific region in terms of the prospect of losing either territorial rights or economic gains. Keywords Philippine
Pacific Forum Issues & Insights Vol. 23, SR11 , 2023
Chapter 2: The South China Sea (SCS) and Taiwan are potential flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific region. Although the disputes have been ongoing for decades, the strategic competition between the two powers – the United States and China – has added real risk to the overlapping territorial and maritime claims. While there is already a large body of literature on both issues, most analyses on the SCS and Taiwan consider them as two distinct issues. While such an approach is logical and understandable, it is likewise important to explore the linkage between the two issues because they impact each other due to geographical proximity. This paper seeks to answer how can the Philippines-U.S. alliance complement efforts to advance a free and open Indo-Pacific, specifically in the geopolitical nexus of the SCS dispute and cross-Strait relations? This paper also addresses the linkage between the SCS dispute and cross-Strait relations, how such a nexus figures in the overall security of the Indo-Pacific, and how the convergence and divergence of interests in these disputes create policy complexities for Manila and Washington. The aim is to provide policy inputs for courses of action vis-à-vis the challenges the alliance faces amidst great power competition. https://pacforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/US-PH-Volume-2023-Super-Final.pdf
How does a small power respond and adjust to a fluid and potentially dangerous strategic balancing by major powers generated by a territorial dispute? This paper observes that notwithstanding the major powers’ mistrust, suspicion, and rivalry, such precarious stability in the South China Sea dispute is sustained by a balance of power system. This system is an offshoot of the small littoral states’ (in this case, the Philippines’) policy of engaging the external maritime powers (the U.S. and Japan) to counter China’s heavy-handedness in dealing with this territorial row. Apprehensive of China’s claim of sovereignty over the South China Sea, the U.S. and Japan are increasing their strategic involvement in the maritime territorial row. These developments have transformed the dispute into a case of conflict irresolution. To cope with China’s heavy-handedness, the Philippines builds up the deterrence capability of its armed forces and forges security partnerships with the U.S. and Japan. The Philippines hopes that this move will ensure the maintenance of the status quo in the regional balance of power. In conclusion, the paper considers the Philippines’ policy as myopic since it overlooks the fact that the volatile balance of power situation in the South China Sea might be the proverbial “calm before the storm.” It is crucial that the Philippines puts its house in order, economically keeps pace with its more dynamic Southeast Asian neighbors, increases its defense spending, formulates a coherent national security strategy, and concentrates on building a credible armed forces to avoid free-riding on its allies, and more importantly, to enable the country to weather the approaching storm.
Between the United States and China: Philippines foreign policy in the case of South China Sea
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In 2016 there were several events that could change the Philippines' foreign policy in Southeast Asia. The tensions in the South China Sea were growing since several parties claimed the sea, and there were new presidents elected in the Philippines and the United States. This thesis focuses on the Philippines' strategy in this complicated geopolitical situation between the two great powers, the United States of America and China. The aim of this thesis was to identify how the Philippines respond to the changing geopolitical dynamics in the region after 2016 in the case of the South China Sea and which strategy they are using in their actions. The author explains the situation in the region, defines a small state, and then discusses the potential strategies a small state has in the case. The author set a hypothesis that the Philippines mainly use a hedging strategy to respond to the region's geopolitical dynamics. To test the hypothesis, the author conducted content analys...
MAJOR POWERS IN ASIA & REGIONAL SECURITY, COMPARATIVE STUDY: PHILIPPINES
The present tensions in the South China Sea have been mooted as the immediate-future’s greatest threat to regional and global security. With many of the world’s most powerful nations bordering the region or with considerable interest in the area, the ongoing ‘land-grab’ occurring in the South China Sea is adding extreme pressure to existing tensions between many of these nations. Indeed, as we observe the smaller regional states attempting to fend-off China’s extra-ordinary claims, we equally observe the United States of America ‘wading’ into the fray. The Philippines finds itself in the middle of this cacophony, particularly noting the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration finding in favour of the Philippines and condemning the excessive claims made by China. But, the change in the Philippines President has brought a swing in external policies that may further complicate the geo-strategic landscape. Noting China has thus far ignored the court’s ruling, the question of enforcement remains alongside the perpetual problem of finding a suitable solution such to lead the regional nations to a peaceful and amicable solution.
REFLECTIONS ON THE PHILIPPINES – CHINA RELATIONS, THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND THE ASEAN INTEGRATION
The postwar era has enabled the international community to really depend on soft power in the conduct of relations with each other. The creation of the United Nations, and other international organizations has helped manage and prevent disputes and conflicts that would possibly lead to another world war. States have been able to advance their national interests or positions relevant to international issues and negotiate with other States through diplomacy. The shift from hard power to soft power has brought-on the one hand, the rise of international law and international codes of conduct that became the " great equalizer " of States that manifested the consciousness " right is might " , rather " might is right " ; and on the other hand, has grounded States into a more complex form of relationships, having the victors of the war yielding greater power and dominance in the said institutions-hence, the opportunities and challenges of the new world order. This paper intends to present an example of the double-edged sword aspect of the new world order of the postwar era. It shall reflect on a contemporary international issue, the South China Sea dispute, and try to look into how it has changed the landscape of international affairs in the Philippine perspective. Further, the geopolitics of the Southeast Asian region and its collective aspirations relevant to the issue will be looked into against the success or failure of the exercise of soft power/ diplomacy. However, this essay is only limited into contextualizing the issue and does not intend to formulate recommendations and suggestive actions. All of these shall be done in order to evaluate the present conditions of the postwar Philippines with respect to foreign policies and the promotion of its national interests as a sovereign nation.
NDCP Policy Brief, 2014
The aim of this paper is to discuss how the dynamics of great power politics in the East China Sea (ECS) dispute affects Philippine Defense Policy vis-à-vis the territorial row in the South China Sea. Specifically, this paper aims to answer the following questions: 1.) What are the relative capabilities of the countries involved in the East China Sea dispute? 2.) What are the actions taken or being undertaken by Japan and China in asserting their claims in the disputed territory? 3.) How will the US-Japan alliance influence the escalating tensions in the region? 4.) What lessons would the dispute among the Great Powers offer the Philippines in managing the dispute in the West Philippine Sea? http://www.ndcp.edu.ph/wp-content/uploads/publications/8%20Galang%20The%20Dynamics%20of%20Great%20Power%20Politicsversion2%20(1).pdf